This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.87
2.13
0.73
1.60
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.82
0.82
2.00
0.75
1.60
0.90
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
1.00
2.67
0.67
1.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
33% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.6%
Under 2.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.2%
Under 3.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.6%
No
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.3%
0-1
7.8%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
6.1%
0-0
5.8%
2-2
5.8%
FC Zurich goals ↓
FC Lugano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
7.8%
8.3%
5.1%
2.4%
1
4.6%
12%
9.8%
6.1%
2.8%
2
3.3%
6.2%
5.8%
3.6%
1.7%
3
1.3%
2.4%
2.3%
1.4%
0.7%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Zurich goals (down), columns = FC Lugano goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Lugano
3.00
BSC Young Boys
2.33
FC Sion
1.80
FC Basel 1893
1.67
FC Thun
1.40
FC ST. Gallen
1.40
FC Luzern
1.33
FC Zurich
1.00
Lausanne
1.00
Grasshoppers
0.80
Servette FC
0.80
FC Vaduz
0.50
FC Zurich is 2.00 points worse than FC Lugano in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BSC Young Boys
3.83
FC Lugano
2.80
FC Sion
2.20
FC Vaduz
2.17
FC ST. Gallen
2.00
FC Basel 1893
1.83
FC Thun
1.80
FC Zurich
1.50
Grasshoppers
1.40
FC Luzern
1.17
Lausanne
1.00
Servette FC
0.80
FC Zurich is 1.30 goals worse than FC Lugano in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Lugano
0.60
Lausanne
1.17
Servette FC
1.20
FC Basel 1893
1.50
FC Luzern
1.67
FC Sion
1.80
BSC Young Boys
1.83
FC ST. Gallen
2.20
Grasshoppers
2.40
FC Zurich
2.67
FC Vaduz
2.67
FC Thun
2.80
FC Zurich is 2.07 goals worse than FC Lugano in terms of goals conceded per game (2.67 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sion
57%
FC ST. Gallen
56%
FC Lugano
55%
FC Vaduz
53%
Servette FC
53%
Lausanne
51%
FC Basel 1893
49%
BSC Young Boys
49%
FC Thun
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC Zurich
44%
FC Luzern
44%
FC Zurich is 11.2 percentage points worse than FC Lugano in terms of average possession (44% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Zurich
For 4.3 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 12.3 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Lugano
For 6.1 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 10.5 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Zurich
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.3
11.1
4.1
4.8
3.5
27.5
26.7
28.4
vs Stronger (5)
9.5
8.0
11.0
2.0
3.0
1.3
22.2
21.5
23.0
vs Similar (41)
11.1
11.1
11.0
4.1
4.8
3.5
28.1
26.7
29.6
vs Weaker (4)
9.0
6.0
12.0
6.8
6.5
7.0
27.8
31.5
24.0
% over line
63%
62%
65%
62%
76%
48%
83%
81%
85%
% under line
37%
38%
35%
38%
24%
52%
17%
19%
15%
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.0
10.0
3.3
3.2
3.4
24.8
23.9
25.7
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
9.4
8.4
10.6
3.5
3.8
3.2
24.7
24.1
25.3
vs Weaker (9)
9.9
12.3
8.4
2.9
1.2
4.2
25.4
23.0
26.8
% over line
38%
26%
50%
52%
56%
48%
78%
74%
83%
% under line
62%
74%
50%
48%
44%
52%
22%
26%
17%
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC ST. Gallen
10.8
FC Zurich
10.7
Lausanne
10.6
FC Luzern
10.5
Servette FC
10.4
FC Basel 1893
10.2
FC Thun
10.2
Grasshoppers
10.0
FC Vaduz
9.9
FC Sion
9.6
BSC Young Boys
9.4
FC Lugano
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC ST. Gallen
5.8
Grasshoppers
5.2
Lausanne
5.1
FC Vaduz
5.0
FC Thun
4.9
FC Zurich
4.9
FC Basel 1893
4.8
FC Luzern
4.7
FC Lugano
4.7
Servette FC
4.6
FC Sion
4.5
BSC Young Boys
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC ST. Gallen
30.1
FC Thun
28.0
FC Zurich
27.5
FC Sion
26.6
FC Basel 1893
26.5
FC Lugano
25.3
Grasshoppers
25.0
Lausanne
24.7
FC Vaduz
24.4
FC Luzern
24.0
BSC Young Boys
23.7
Servette FC
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.8%
Under 9.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.3%
Under 3.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
80.3%
Under 21.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Zurich or Draw
47.7%
Avg Implied -
23%
25%
52%
covers FC Zurich + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich or FC Lugano
75.3%
Avg Implied -
23%
25%
52%
covers FC Zurich + FC Lugano
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Lugano
77.0%
Avg Implied -
23%
25%
52%
covers Draw + FC Lugano
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Zurich over/under 0.5
Over
69.2%
Under
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 1.5
Over
33.0%
Under
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 2.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5
Over
84.5%
Under
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 1.5
Over
55.6%
Under
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 2.5
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 3.5
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Zurich, so a minus line means FC Zurich give that many goals of a start and FC Lugano receive them. At -1, FC Zurich must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Zurich win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Zurich)
FC Zurich -2
2.9%
Draw -2
6.5%
FC Lugano +2
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Zurich)
FC Zurich -1
9.5%
Draw -1
13.5%
FC Lugano +1
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Zurich)
FC Zurich +1
47.7%
Draw +1
21.9%
FC Lugano -1
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Zurich)
FC Zurich +2
69.6%
Draw +2
16.3%
FC Lugano -2
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Zurich
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.60
0.73
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.30
1.07
0.13
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.27
0.83
0.17
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
70% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Zurich over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Zurich
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.27
0.80
1.07
0.47
1.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
1.21
0.67
1.08
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Lugano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Lugano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.57
1.07
0.60
1.27
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.14
0.55
1.17
0.58
1.10
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.62
0.67
0.67
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Zurich over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Lugano over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Zurich
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
V. Berisha33%
L. Kamberi33%
Umeh Emmanuel33%
M. Reichmuth20%
Bledian Krasniqi17%
P. Keny17%
Mohamed Bangoura17%
Alexander Hack0%
H. Lindner0%
Ilan Sauter0%
K. Spadanuda0%
Livano Comenencia0%
Selmin Hodza0%
N. Volken0%
L. Schodler0%
S. Walker0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
V. Berisha67%
Livano Comenencia50%
Alexander Hack40%
Selmin Hodza40%
K. Spadanuda33%
N. Volken33%
S. Walker25%
P. Keny17%
L. Kamberi17%
Umeh Emmanuel17%
L. Schodler17%
Bledian Krasniqi0%
H. Lindner0%
Ilan Sauter0%
M. Reichmuth0%
Mohamed Bangoura0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
V. Berisha33%
M. Reichmuth20%
Selmin Hodza20%
P. Keny17%
Umeh Emmanuel17%
L. Schodler17%
Bledian Krasniqi0%
Alexander Hack0%
H. Lindner0%
Ilan Sauter0%
L. Kamberi0%
K. Spadanuda0%
Livano Comenencia0%
N. Volken0%
Mohamed Bangoura0%
S. Walker0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
P. Keny17%
Bledian Krasniqi0%
V. Berisha0%
Alexander Hack0%
H. Lindner0%
Ilan Sauter0%
L. Kamberi0%
K. Spadanuda0%
Livano Comenencia0%
M. Reichmuth0%
Selmin Hodza0%
Umeh Emmanuel0%
N. Volken0%
Mohamed Bangoura0%
L. Schodler0%
S. Walker0%
FC Lugano
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Behrens57%
D. Moncada44%
Beckham Castro33%
E. Pihlström25%
Y. Cimignani22%
L. Mai14%
R. Steffen11%
A. Papadopoulos11%
Anto Grgić11%
Daniel Dos Santos11%
D. von Ballmoos0%
H. Delcroix0%
A. Kendouci0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Joel Bichsel0%
M. Zanotti0%
D. Kelvin0%
B. Karimov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Karimov33%
A. Papadopoulos22%
Uran Bislimi22%
M. Zanotti22%
R. Steffen11%
A. Kendouci11%
D. Moncada11%
L. Mai0%
D. von Ballmoos0%
H. Delcroix0%
Kevin Behrens0%
Anto Grgić0%
Joel Bichsel0%
Y. Cimignani0%
Daniel Dos Santos0%
Beckham Castro0%
D. Kelvin0%
E. Pihlström0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anto Grgić33%
Y. Cimignani33%
M. Zanotti33%
Beckham Castro33%
R. Steffen22%
A. Kendouci22%
H. Delcroix17%
L. Mai14%
Kevin Behrens14%
D. von Ballmoos11%
A. Papadopoulos0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Joel Bichsel0%
Daniel Dos Santos0%
D. Kelvin0%
B. Karimov0%
D. Moncada0%
E. Pihlström0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
B. Karimov33%
Kevin Behrens29%
A. Papadopoulos22%
Daniel Dos Santos22%
D. Moncada22%
H. Delcroix17%
E. Pihlström12%
R. Steffen11%
L. Mai0%
D. von Ballmoos0%
A. Kendouci0%
Anto Grgić0%
Uran Bislimi0%
Joel Bichsel0%
Y. Cimignani0%
M. Zanotti0%
Beckham Castro0%
D. Kelvin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (28)
€66m
FB1 (26)
€49m
FL (26)
€39m
FSG (28)
€32m
FS (28)
€30m
LAU (23)
€27m
FL (28)
€26m
SF (27)
€21m
FT (25)
€17m
GRA (35)
€16m
FZ (27)
€15m
FV (26)
€6m
FC Zurich's squad is €24m less valuable than FC Lugano's (€15m vs €39m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (11)
€16m
FL (11)
€15m
BYB (4)
€15m
FS (10)
€15m
FSG (11)
€12m
LAU (8)
€9m
FL (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€7m
FZ (7)
€6m
GRA (10)
€4m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Zurich's attack is €2m less valuable than FC Lugano's (€6m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (8)
€18m
FB1 (5)
€16m
SF (9)
€7m
FL (5)
€7m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (6)
€6m
LAU (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
GRA (10)
€4m
FL (5)
€3m
FZ (6)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
FC Zurich's midfield is €4m less valuable than FC Lugano's (€3m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (16)
€33m
FL (14)
€24m
FB1 (10)
€16m
FSG (11)
€14m
LAU (10)
€13m
FS (12)
€9m
SF (12)
€8m
FL (12)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
GRA (15)
€7m
FZ (14)
€6m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Zurich's defence is €18m less valuable than FC Lugano's (€6m vs €24m).
Switzerland: Super League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
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BSC Young Boys
FC Basel 1893
FC Sion
FC Luzern
FC ST. Gallen
FC Thun
Lausanne
Servette FC
Grasshoppers
FC Vaduz