FC Zurich hosts Servette FC in the Switzerland: Super League match on August 1. Recent form suggests a storyline: FC Zurich is coming off a 0-5 defeat against FC Lugano, whereas Servette FC is coming off a 2-1 win against Grasshoppers. This narrative might influence the match's outcome, but the numbers indicate a high-scoring encounter. FC Zurich's average goals scored at home is 1.17, while they concede 2.33 goals per match. Servette FC, on the other hand, averages 2.83 goals scored away against similar opponents, while conceding 1.83 goals.
The model predicts a 46% chance of an away win, with the model's selection being the away win. The expected total goals is 3.4, suggesting a high-scoring match. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.4%. The model's selection also includes Over 1.5, with a probability of 86.5%, and Over 21.5 fouls, with a probability of 76.9%. The home win percentage is 30%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 46%.
Results analysis
FC Zurich's 2-1 win over Servette FC is a major upset, extending their winless run at home. Contrary to expectations, the pre-match favourite, Servette FC, failed to come through, with the model's selection of an Away win proving incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was a Home win. The model's selection of an Away win had a pre-match probability of 46%. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 86.5%, and Over 21.5 fouls also hit, with a probability of 76.9%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Zurich win✓ Hit
30.0%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.33
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.49
Dafabet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.83
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.09
Dafabet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.92
Betano
3.90
Servette FC win✗ Miss
46.0%
Avg Implied 47.7% · @ 1.95
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.10
SBO
2.00
Dafabet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.96
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Zurich
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.93
1.47
1.80
1.00
2.07
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
2.40
1.40
2.00
0.60
2.80
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.76
1.25
1.88
1.11
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
2.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Servette FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.53
1.93
1.33
1.93
1.73
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
2.25
1.67
2.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.80
1.45
1.40
0.90
2.20
2.00
vs Weaker (6)
2.67
1.33
5.00
1.50
1.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.5%
@ 1.16+6.0%
Under 1.5
13.5%
@ 4.78-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Under
Pinnacle
5.01
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.5%
@ 1.54+6.2%
Under 2.5
33.5%
@ 2.34-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Under
Betfair
2.45
Pinnacle
2.42
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
Unibet
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.7%
@ 2.38+5.3%
Under 3.5
55.3%
@ 1.55-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.45
Pinnacle
2.44
10Bet
2.40
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.4%
@ 1.50+5.7%
No
32.6%
@ 2.42-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.53
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betfair
1.50
No
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.45
BetVictor
2.45
1xBet
2.44
10Bet
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%@ 7.22+4.1%
1-2
9.0%@ 8.02+3.4%
2-1 ✓
7.2%@ 10.66+2.9%
2-2
6.8%@ 11.08+2.7%
0-2
5.9%@ 10.76+1.7%
1-3
5.7%@ 12.62+2.1%
0-1
5.3%@ 9.61+0.6%
2-3
4.3%@ 17.40+1.7%
FC Zurich goals ↓
Servette FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
5.3%
5.9%
3.8%
1.8%
1
4.0%
10%
9.0%
5.7%
2.7%
2
3.8%
7.2%
6.8%
4.3%
2.1%
3
1.9%
3.6%
3.5%
2.2%
1.0%
4
0.7%
1.4%
1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Zurich goals (down), columns = Servette FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Thun
1.97
FC ST. Gallen
1.84
FC Lugano
1.76
FC Sion
1.66
FC Basel 1893
1.47
BSC Young Boys
1.45
FC Luzern
1.39
Servette FC
1.39
Lausanne
1.11
FC Zurich
1.00
FC Vaduz
0.98
Grasshoppers
0.93
FC Zurich is 0.39 points worse than Servette FC in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Thun
2.11
BSC Young Boys
2.11
FC Luzern
2.00
FC ST. Gallen
1.89
Servette FC
1.87
FC Sion
1.66
FC Lugano
1.55
FC Basel 1893
1.45
Lausanne
1.39
FC Zurich
1.29
Grasshoppers
1.25
FC Vaduz
1.16
FC Zurich is 0.58 goals worse than Servette FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Sion
1.05
FC Lugano
1.11
FC ST. Gallen
1.24
FC Thun
1.37
FC Basel 1893
1.53
Servette FC
1.66
FC Luzern
1.74
Lausanne
1.76
BSC Young Boys
1.82
Grasshoppers
1.88
FC Zurich
1.89
FC Vaduz
2.14
FC Zurich is 0.24 goals worse than Servette FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.89 vs 1.66).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Lugano
56%
BSC Young Boys
55%
FC Basel 1893
55%
Servette FC
52%
FC Sion
51%
FC Zurich
51%
FC Luzern
50%
Lausanne
50%
FC Thun
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC ST. Gallen
45%
FC Zurich is 1.3 percentage points worse than Servette FC in terms of average possession (51% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Zurich
For 3.5 · Against 7.5 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 14.1 · Total 28.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Servette FC
For 5.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 11.1 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Zurich
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.4
11.3
4.8
5.1
4.6
27.3
26.0
28.4
vs Stronger (14)
10.7
9.7
11.7
4.1
4.9
3.4
27.9
27.6
28.1
vs Similar (30)
11.0
11.1
11.0
5.1
5.3
4.9
27.4
24.9
29.5
vs Weaker (6)
10.5
9.0
12.0
5.2
4.7
5.7
25.5
27.7
23.3
% over line
64%
62%
65%
72%
79%
65%
82%
75%
88%
% under line
36%
38%
35%
28%
21%
35%
18%
25%
12%
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Servette FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.2
11.0
4.3
4.2
4.4
23.7
23.8
23.7
vs Stronger (13)
11.3
10.3
12.4
4.3
4.4
4.2
21.9
22.3
21.4
vs Similar (29)
10.8
10.1
11.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
24.8
25.6
23.9
vs Weaker (8)
9.0
10.0
8.0
3.5
2.5
4.5
22.4
19.0
25.8
% over line
60%
60%
61%
68%
65%
71%
67%
68%
65%
% under line
40%
40%
39%
32%
35%
29%
33%
32%
35%
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Zurich
10.9
Lausanne
10.7
FC ST. Gallen
10.6
Servette FC
10.6
FC Thun
10.5
FC Basel 1893
10.4
FC Luzern
10.3
FC Sion
9.9
FC Vaduz
9.6
BSC Young Boys
9.6
Grasshoppers
9.6
FC Lugano
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC ST. Gallen
5.9
Grasshoppers
5.2
FC Vaduz
5.2
FC Thun
5.1
Lausanne
5.0
FC Zurich
4.8
FC Basel 1893
4.8
FC Sion
4.8
FC Lugano
4.8
FC Luzern
4.6
Servette FC
4.5
BSC Young Boys
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC ST. Gallen
30.1
FC Thun
28.1
FC Sion
27.3
FC Zurich
27.3
FC Basel 1893
26.8
FC Vaduz
25.3
Grasshoppers
25.1
FC Lugano
25.1
Lausanne
24.6
FC Luzern
24.1
BSC Young Boys
24.0
Servette FC
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
62.6%
@ 1.55+2.8%
Under 9.5
37.4%
@ 2.30-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.59
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.49
Under
Unibet
2.45
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.34
Pinnacle
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.3%
Under 3.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
80.8%
Under 21.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Zurich
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.60
0.87
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
vs Similar (17)
0.47
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Servette FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Servette FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.07
0.60
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.75
0.70
0.40
0.60
1.10
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.33
3.50
1.00
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Zurich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Zurich over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Zurich over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Servette FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Servette FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Servette FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.5%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.0%
1.32
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.26
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (39)
€83m
FB1 (29)
€70m
FL (34)
€69m
FZ (82)
€58m
LAU (62)
€47m
FSG (33)
€41m
FL (31)
€41m
FT (28)
€30m
FS (28)
€29m
SF (28)
€17m
FV (26)
€6m
FC Zurich's squad is €41m more valuable than Servette FC's (€58m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FB1 (12)
€37m
FZ (25)
€23m
FSG (15)
€20m
BYB (8)
€18m
LAU (23)
€18m
FS (11)
€17m
FL (12)
€15m
FL (9)
€8m
FT (7)
€8m
SF (6)
€4m
FV (8)
€2m
FC Zurich's attack is €18m more valuable than Servette FC's (€23m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BYB (11)
€21m
FB1 (5)
€17m
FZ (21)
€16m
FT (10)
€13m
LAU (12)
€9m
FL (8)
€9m
SF (10)
€6m
FSG (6)
€6m
FS (7)
€5m
FL (5)
€5m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Zurich's midfield is €10m more valuable than Servette FC's (€16m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (17)
€52m
BYB (20)
€44m
FL (14)
€20m
LAU (27)
€20m
FZ (36)
€19m
FB1 (12)
€15m
FSG (12)
€14m
FT (11)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
SF (12)
€6m
FV (9)
€2m
FC Zurich's defence is €13m more valuable than Servette FC's (€19m vs €6m).
Switzerland: Super League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Lugano
BSC Young Boys
FC ST. Gallen
FC Sion
FC Basel 1893
Lausanne
FC Thun
Grasshoppers
FC Luzern
FC Vaduz