FCI Levadia II are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 62% chance to a home win, 21% to a draw and 16% to an away victory. The prediction reflects Levadia’s solid home form, averaging 2.67 goals scored and only one conceded, while Elva’s away record is weak, conceding 4.5 goals per game. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a lively encounter, and the most likely scoreline is 2-1, a 9.8% probability. The single most probable total is three goals, with a 22% chance. The model’s suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.9% probability. Levadia’s recent run of LWLLW, just after a defeat, and Elva’s WDWLW streak, coming off a win, add context to the matchup. The home side’s scoring and conceding figures against similar opposition reinforce their advantage, while Elva’s poor away defense makes a win unlikely. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals highlights the expectation of a high-scoring game.
Results analysis
The match saw FCI Levadia II extend their recent run, coming off a defeat yet securing a home win against Elva. The final score was 3-1, confirming the model’s prediction of a home victory. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 62% probability and the model’s call proved correct. The suggested pick Over 1.5, with an 84.9% chance, hit as the game produced three goals. The most likely total was 3 goals, a 22% probability, and the scoreline 2-1 was one of the top three possibilities. All selections settled as expected, underscoring the model’s accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FCI Levadia II win✓ Hit
62.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elva win✗ Miss
16.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FCI Levadia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.50
2.50
0.75
1.83
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
2.29
2.00
2.67
1.00
2.00
2.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.55
1.91
1.83
1.83
1.20
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.50
3.17
1.75
2.50
1.00
4.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.40
2.00
0.50
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
36% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.7%
Under 3.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.8%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
7.4%
3-1 ✓
7.3%
3-0
6.8%
2-2
5.3%
1-2
4.8%
FCI Levadia II goals ↓
Elva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
3.1%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
1
7.4%
9.8%
4.8%
1.7%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.8%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
6.8%
7.3%
3.9%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.7%
4.0%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCI Levadia II goals (down), columns = Elva goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Laagri
2.11
FCI Levadia II
1.89
Elva
1.83
Viimsi
1.75
Flora II
1.72
Nõmme United
1.67
Paide II
1.44
K-Järve JK Järve
0.82
Tulevik
0.64
Pärnu
0.56
Tallinna Kalev II
0.50
FCI Levadia II is 0.06 points better than Elva in terms of average points per game (1.89 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Laagri
2.69
Flora II
2.44
FCI Levadia II
2.36
Nõmme United
2.19
Elva
2.11
Viimsi
2.11
Paide II
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
1.50
K-Järve JK Järve
0.87
Pärnu
0.83
Tulevik
0.78
FCI Levadia II is 0.25 goals better than Elva in terms of goals scored per game (2.36 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
1.11
FCI Levadia II
1.25
Laagri
1.28
Elva
1.44
Flora II
1.44
Nõmme United
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Pärnu
2.14
Paide II
2.44
Tulevik
2.83
K-Järve JK Järve
2.84
FCI Levadia II is 0.19 goals better than Elva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FCI Levadia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.67
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.71
0.33
0.67
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.55
0.83
0.50
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.00
0.75
0.75
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FCI Levadia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.00
2.25
0.25
1.17
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.71
1.29
2.33
0.33
1.25
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.91
1.36
1.00
1.33
0.80
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
2.17
1.00
1.75
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
45% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →