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FCI Levadia II vs Elva Result & Analysis

Date: 08/05/2022
Time: 09:30
Final 3-1
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Vs
62%
21%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

FCI Levadia II are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 62% chance to a home win, 21% to a draw and 16% to an away victory. The prediction reflects Levadia’s solid home form, averaging 2.67 goals scored and only one conceded, while Elva’s away record is weak, conceding 4.5 goals per game. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a lively encounter, and the most likely scoreline is 2-1, a 9.8% probability. The single most probable total is three goals, with a 22% chance. The model’s suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.9% probability. Levadia’s recent run of LWLLW, just after a defeat, and Elva’s WDWLW streak, coming off a win, add context to the matchup. The home side’s scoring and conceding figures against similar opposition reinforce their advantage, while Elva’s poor away defense makes a win unlikely. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals highlights the expectation of a high-scoring game.

Results analysis

The match saw FCI Levadia II extend their recent run, coming off a defeat yet securing a home win against Elva. The final score was 3-1, confirming the model’s prediction of a home victory. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 62% probability and the model’s call proved correct. The suggested pick Over 1.5, with an 84.9% chance, hit as the game produced three goals. The most likely total was 3 goals, a 22% probability, and the scoreline 2-1 was one of the top three possibilities. All selections settled as expected, underscoring the model’s accuracy.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FCI Levadia II win✓ Hit
62.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elva win✗ Miss
16.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-443W03L14L30W11D21W32W20W31W20WA·ELV03/03A·PAI14/03A·FLO21/03H·VII03/04A·PÄR09/04H·NÕM14/04H·LAA18/04A·TUL23/04A·VII28/04H·PÄR01/05
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.101.502.500.751.832.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)2.292.002.671.002.002.75
vs Weaker (3)1.670.332.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-811D20W20W00D10W14L18L12L11D41WA·NÕM07/03A·K-J13/03H·LAA19/03H·PÄR02/04A·TUL11/04H·FLO14/04A·VII17/04H·PAI24/04A·PÄR28/04H·K-J02/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.551.911.831.831.202.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.503.171.752.501.004.50
vs Weaker (5)1.600.402.000.501.330.33
Clean sheet %36% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.7%
Under 3.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.8%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
7.4%
3-1 ✓
7.3%
3-0
6.8%
2-2
5.3%
1-2
4.8%
FCI Levadia II goals ↓
Elva goals →
01234
04.6%3.1%2.2%0.8%0.2%
17.4%9.8%4.8%1.7%0.5%
29.2%9.8%5.3%1.9%0.5%
36.8%7.3%3.9%1.4%0.4%
43.7%4.0%2.2%0.8%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCI Levadia II goals (down), columns = Elva goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.11
FCI Levadia II
1.89
Elva
1.83
Viimsi
1.75
Flora II
1.72
Nõmme United
1.67
Paide II
1.44
K-Järve JK Järve
0.82
Tulevik
0.64
Pärnu
0.56
Tallinna Kalev II
0.50
FCI Levadia II is 0.06 points better than Elva in terms of average points per game (1.89 vs 1.83).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
2.69
Flora II
2.44
FCI Levadia II
2.36
Nõmme United
2.19
Elva
2.11
Viimsi
2.11
Paide II
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
1.50
K-Järve JK Järve
0.87
Pärnu
0.83
Tulevik
0.78
FCI Levadia II is 0.25 goals better than Elva in terms of goals scored per game (2.36 vs 2.11).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
1.11
FCI Levadia II
1.25
Laagri
1.28
Elva
1.44
Flora II
1.44
Nõmme United
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Pärnu
2.14
Paide II
2.44
Tulevik
2.83
K-Järve JK Järve
2.84
FCI Levadia II is 0.19 goals better than Elva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.44).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D11D00D00D10W02L10W10W00DA·ELV03/03A·PAI14/03A·FLO21/03H·VII03/04A·PÄR09/04H·NÕM14/04H·LAA18/04A·TUL23/04A·VII28/04H·PÄR01/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.500.250.500.670.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.570.710.330.670.750.75
vs Weaker (3)0.330.000.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %70% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D10W00D10W00D03L02L10W20WA·NÕM07/03A·K-J13/03H·LAA19/03H·PÄR02/04A·TUL11/04H·FLO14/04A·VII17/04H·PAI24/04A·PÄR28/04H·K-J02/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.640.550.830.500.400.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.501.000.750.750.001.50
vs Weaker (5)0.800.001.000.000.670.00
Clean sheet %73% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W03L03L30W11D11D30W10W21W20WA·ELV03/03A·PAI14/03A·FLO21/03H·VII03/04A·PÄR09/04H·NÕM14/04H·LAA18/04A·TUL23/04A·VII28/04H·PÄR01/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.002.250.251.171.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.711.292.330.331.252.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.332.000.001.000.50
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D20W10W00D00D14L15L10W01L21WA·NÕM07/03A·K-J13/03H·LAA19/03H·PÄR02/04A·TUL11/04H·FLO14/04A·VII17/04H·PAI24/04A·PÄR28/04H·K-J02/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.911.361.001.330.801.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.002.171.001.751.003.00
vs Weaker (5)0.800.401.000.500.670.33
Clean sheet %45% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
FLI wins
0
Draws
0
ELV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FCI Levadia II vs Elva · H/A from FLI
DateH/AGameScore
03/03/22AElva Vs FLI3-4

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/05/22HFLI Vs Pärnu2-0
28/04/22AViimsi Vs FLI1-3
23/04/22ATulevik Vs FLI0-2
18/04/22HFLI Vs Laagri3-2
14/04/22HFLI Vs Nõmme United2-1
09/04/22APärnu Vs FLI1-1
03/04/22HFLI Vs Viimsi3-0
21/03/22AFlora II Vs FLI4-1
14/03/22APaide II Vs FLI3-0
03/03/22AElva Vs FLI3-4

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/05/22HELV Vs K-Järve JK Järve4-1
28/04/22APärnu Vs ELV1-1
24/04/22HELV Vs Paide II1-2
17/04/22AViimsi Vs ELV8-1
14/04/22HELV Vs Flora II1-4
11/04/22ATulevik Vs ELV0-1
02/04/22HELV Vs Pärnu0-0
19/03/22HELV Vs Laagri2-0
13/03/22AK-Järve JK Järve Vs ELV0-2
07/03/22ANõmme United Vs ELV1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.20
HomeWWWW3.00
AwayLLDWW1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %70%100%50%
AVG goals3.603.253.83
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %70%75%67%
Over 3.5 %40%25%50%
Scored2.102.501.83
Conceded1.500.752.00
BTTS60%50%67%
Clean Sheet30%50%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDW1.36
HomeWDLLW1.17
AwayDWWLD1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%33%40%
AVG goals3.453.673.20
Over 1.5 %82%83%80%
Over 2.5 %45%67%20%
Over 3.5 %36%50%20%
Scored1.551.831.20
Conceded1.911.832.00
BTTS64%67%60%
Clean Sheet36%33%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3676
67%
2.1
9746+51
4.0
81%
69%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.71.3
-
2FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3668
58%
1.9
8545+40
3.6
94%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.2
-
3ElvaElva3666
56%
1.8
7652+24
3.6
81%
53%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
4ViimsiViimsi3663
56%
1.8
7640+36
3.2
75%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II3662
53%
1.7
8852+36
3.9
89%
78%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.4
-
6Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3660
50%
1.7
7956+23
3.8
94%
64%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.21.6
-
7Paide IIPaide II3652
47%
1.4
7588-13
4.5
100%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.4
-
8K-Järve JK JärveK-Järve JK Järve3831
24%
0.8
33108-75
3.7
84%
76%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.8
-
9TulevikTulevik3623
17%
0.6
28102-74
3.6
86%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.8
-
10PärnuPärnu3620
11%
0.6
3077-47
3.0
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II21
0%
0.5
34-1
3.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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