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FCI Levadia II vs Elva Result & Analysis

Date: 17/03/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 3-0
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Vs
59%
24%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FCI Levadia II win✓ Hit
59.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elva win✗ Miss
17.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L30W13L40W02L03L22D12L11D20WH·JK 27/09A·FC 02/10A·FLO05/10H·LEG23/10A·VII29/10H·NÕM02/11H·K-J06/11A·PAI12/11A·JK 03/03H·VII10/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.171.401.131.531.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.211.171.171.081.251.25
vs Weaker (6)2.501.172.331.332.671.00
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-721W14L30W02L41W07L00D11D10W02LA·FC 08/10H·FLO21/10H·JK 29/10A·K-J02/11A·LEG05/11H·NÕM12/11A·TAR25/11H·TAR29/11H·TAR02/03A·FLO09/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.871.131.731.072.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.882.171.082.000.642.36
vs Weaker (6)2.000.671.500.002.251.00
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.1%
Under 2.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.8%
Under 3.5
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.7%
3-0 ✓
6.7%
0-0
6.6%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
4.9%
FCI Levadia II goals ↓
Elva goals →
01234
06.6%4.3%2.5%0.8%0.2%
19.7%11%4.9%1.6%0.4%
210%9.9%4.8%1.5%0.4%
36.7%6.4%3.1%1.0%0.2%
43.2%3.1%1.5%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCI Levadia II goals (down), columns = Elva goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
FCI Levadia II is 0.01 points worse than Elva in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.24).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
FCI Levadia II is 0.19 goals better than Elva in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.47).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
FCI Levadia II is 0.34 goals worse than Elva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.63).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W11D10W01L00D10W02L11D10WH·JK 27/09A·FC 02/10A·FLO05/10H·LEG23/10A·VII29/10H·NÕM02/11H·K-J06/11A·PAI12/11A·JK 03/03H·VII10/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.600.530.400.470.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.460.620.500.420.420.83
vs Weaker (6)0.670.500.670.330.670.67
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L13L30W00D21W04L00D01L00D01LA·FC 08/10H·FLO21/10H·JK 29/10A·K-J02/11A·LEG05/11H·NÕM12/11A·TAR25/11H·TAR29/11H·TAR02/03A·FLO09/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.900.670.930.600.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.501.040.621.080.361.00
vs Weaker (6)1.170.331.000.001.250.50
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L20W02L30W01L03L12L10W00D10WH·JK 27/09A·FC 02/10A·FLO05/10H·LEG23/10A·VII29/10H·NÕM02/11H·K-J06/11A·PAI12/11A·JK 03/03H·VII10/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.570.870.731.070.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.750.540.670.670.830.42
vs Weaker (6)1.830.671.671.002.000.33
Clean sheet %60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L00D02L20W03L00D10W10W01LA·FC 08/10H·FLO21/10H·JK 29/10A·K-J02/11A·LEG05/11H·NÕM12/11A·TAR25/11H·TAR29/11H·TAR02/03A·FLO09/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.970.470.800.471.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.381.120.460.920.271.36
vs Weaker (6)0.830.330.500.001.000.50
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
FLI wins
2
Draws
1
ELV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FCI Levadia II vs Elva · H/A from FLI
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/23AElva Vs FLI0-0
22/07/23HFLI Vs Elva3-0
04/06/23AElva Vs FLI1-2
13/03/23HFLI Vs Elva5-1
13/11/22AElva Vs FLI3-1
13/08/22HFLI Vs Elva1-1
08/05/22HFLI Vs Elva3-1
03/03/22AElva Vs FLI3-4

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/03/24HFLI Vs Viimsi2-0
03/03/24AJK Tabasalu Vs FLI1-1
12/11/23APaide II Vs FLI2-1
06/11/23HFLI Vs K-Järve JK Järve2-2
02/11/23HFLI Vs Nõmme United0-3
29/10/23AViimsi Vs FLI2-0
23/10/23HFLI Vs Legion4-0
05/10/23AFlora II Vs FLI3-1
02/10/23AFC Tallinn Vs FLI0-3
27/09/23HFLI Vs JK Tabasalu1-2

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/03/24AFlora II Vs ELV2-0
02/03/24HELV Vs Tartu Welco1-0
29/11/23HELV Vs Tartu Kalev1-1
25/11/23ATartu Kalev Vs ELV0-0
12/11/23HELV Vs Nõmme United0-7
05/11/23ALegion Vs ELV1-4
02/11/23AK-Järve JK Järve Vs ELV2-0
29/10/23HELV Vs JK Tabasalu3-0
21/10/23HELV Vs Flora II1-4
08/10/23AFC Tallinn Vs ELV1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDW1.64
HomeLWLDW1.80
AwayWLLLD1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%52%44%
AVG goals2.983.242.72
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %64%72%56%
Over 3.5 %32%40%24%
Scored1.762.201.32
Conceded1.221.041.40
BTTS48%44%52%
Clean Sheet36%48%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWL1.22
HomeLWLDW1.52
AwayWLWDL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%44%28%
AVG goals3.183.363.00
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %58%64%52%
Over 3.5 %34%36%32%
Scored1.321.720.92
Conceded1.861.642.08
BTTS46%52%40%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3678
61%
2.2
11042+68
4.2
89%
69%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.2
-
2ViimsiViimsi3675
61%
2.1
7542+33
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
3Flora IIFlora II3666
56%
1.8
9655+41
4.2
97%
72%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
4Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3660
44%
1.7
7044+26
3.2
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
5FC TallinnFC Tallinn3653
42%
1.5
6754+13
3.4
83%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
6ElvaElva3847
32%
1.2
5662-6
3.1
79%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3644
36%
1.2
6071-11
3.6
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
8Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3642
31%
1.2
7287-15
4.4
94%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.4
-
9Paide IIPaide II3625
19%
0.7
47121-74
4.7
89%
86%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.4
-
10JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3616
11%
0.4
35101-66
3.8
86%
78%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.8
-
11LegionLegion20
0%
0.0
09-9
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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