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FCI Levadia II vs Flora II Result & Analysis

Date: 05/09/2022
Time: 16:00
Final 0-3
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Vs
46%
22%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

FCI Levadia II’s recent form shows a mixed bag, but the model favours a home win, with a 46% chance of victory, 22% for a draw and 32% for an away win. The expected total of 4.1 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely total is 6 + goals, a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Levadia, at 7.8% probability. Levadia, playing at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 2.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded, while Flora, on the road, averages 1.5 scored and 2.25 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 91.9%, Over 2.5 at 76.9%, and BTTS Yes at 75.6%. The final outcome of the match was a 0-3 away win for Flora.

Results analysis

FCI Levadia II finished 0-3 against Flora II (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 46% home win, 22% draw and 32% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (92%), Over 2.5 (77%). Missed: BTTS Yes (76%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FCI Levadia II win✗ Miss
46.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora II win✓ Hit
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-712L41W12L41W24L40W11D11D71W01LH·K-J25/06H·FLO30/06H·VII03/07A·PAI18/07H·NÕM30/07A·K-J06/08H·ELV13/08A·TUL20/08H·PÄR27/08A·LAA01/09
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.461.272.541.312.381.23
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)2.411.592.441.442.381.75
vs Weaker (9)2.560.672.751.002.400.40
Clean sheet %23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L40W01L43W41W21W23L30W22D14LA·FCI30/06H·TUL04/07H·ELV13/07A·LAA18/07H·VII01/08A·PAI08/08A·PÄR12/08H·NÕM22/08A·K-J27/08H·ELV01/09
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.231.542.311.312.151.77
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)2.091.732.431.431.502.25
vs Weaker (15)2.331.402.171.172.441.56
Clean sheet %31% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%2%06%115%219%320%416%522%6+
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.9%
Under 1.5
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
76.9%
Under 2.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.7%
Under 3.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
75.6%
No
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.8%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
7.2%
1-2
6.5%
3-1
5.8%
3-2
5.3%
2-3
4.4%
2-0
4.3%
FCI Levadia II goals ↓
Flora II goals →
01234
02.4%2.5%2.9%1.8%0.8%
13.1%7.8%6.5%4.0%1.8%
24.3%7.8%7.2%4.4%2.0%
33.1%5.8%5.3%3.3%1.5%
41.7%3.2%2.9%1.8%0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCI Levadia II goals (down), columns = Flora II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.11
FCI Levadia II
1.89
Elva
1.83
Viimsi
1.75
Flora II
1.72
Nõmme United
1.67
Paide II
1.44
K-Järve JK Järve
0.82
Tulevik
0.64
Pärnu
0.56
Tallinna Kalev II
0.50
FCI Levadia II is 0.17 points better than Flora II in terms of average points per game (1.89 vs 1.72).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
2.69
Flora II
2.44
FCI Levadia II
2.36
Nõmme United
2.19
Elva
2.11
Viimsi
2.11
Paide II
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
1.50
K-Järve JK Järve
0.87
Pärnu
0.83
Tulevik
0.78
FCI Levadia II is 0.08 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals scored per game (2.36 vs 2.44).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
1.11
FCI Levadia II
1.25
Laagri
1.28
Elva
1.44
Flora II
1.44
Nõmme United
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Pärnu
2.14
Paide II
2.44
Tulevik
2.83
K-Järve JK Järve
2.84
FCI Levadia II is 0.19 goals better than Flora II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.44).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W11D11D22D30W00D00D30W01LH·K-J25/06H·FLO30/06H·VII03/07A·PAI18/07H·NÕM30/07A·K-J06/08H·ELV13/08A·TUL20/08H·PÄR27/08A·LAA01/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.920.460.920.460.920.46
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.820.650.780.560.880.75
vs Weaker (9)1.110.111.250.251.000.00
Clean sheet %65% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L30W00D21W40W11D11D10W21W10WA·FCI30/06H·TUL04/07H·ELV13/07A·LAA18/07H·VII01/08A·PAI08/08A·PÄR12/08H·NÕM22/08A·K-J27/08H·ELV01/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.080.501.380.310.770.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.820.451.290.140.001.00
vs Weaker (15)1.270.531.500.501.110.56
Clean sheet %58% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L31W01L30W02L10W11D11D41W00DH·K-J25/06H·FLO30/06H·VII03/07A·PAI18/07H·NÕM30/07A·K-J06/08H·ELV13/08A·TUL20/08H·PÄR27/08A·LAA01/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.540.811.620.851.460.77
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.590.941.670.891.501.00
vs Weaker (9)1.440.561.500.751.400.40
Clean sheet %38% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L10W01L22D01L10W12L20W01L04LA·FCI30/06H·TUL04/07H·ELV13/07A·LAA18/07H·VII01/08A·PAI08/08A·PÄR12/08H·NÕM22/08A·K-J27/08H·ELV01/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.151.040.921.001.381.08
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.271.271.141.291.501.25
vs Weaker (15)1.070.870.670.671.331.00
Clean sheet %42% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.591.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.576.9%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes75.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
FLI wins
0
Draws
1
FI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FCI Levadia II vs Flora II · H/A from FLI
DateH/AGameScore
30/06/22HFLI Vs Flora II4-1
21/03/22AFlora II Vs FLI4-1

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/22ALaagri Vs FLI1-0
27/08/22HFLI Vs Pärnu7-1
20/08/22ATulevik Vs FLI1-1
13/08/22HFLI Vs Elva1-1
06/08/22AK-Järve JK Järve Vs FLI0-4
30/07/22HFLI Vs Nõmme United2-4
18/07/22APaide II Vs FLI1-4
03/07/22HFLI Vs Viimsi1-2
30/06/22HFLI Vs Flora II4-1
25/06/22HFLI Vs K-Järve JK Järve1-2

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/22HFI Vs Elva1-4
27/08/22AK-Järve JK Järve Vs FI2-2
22/08/22HFI Vs Nõmme United3-0
12/08/22APärnu Vs FI3-2
08/08/22APaide II Vs FI1-2
01/08/22HFI Vs Viimsi4-1
18/07/22ALaagri Vs FI3-4
13/07/22HFI Vs Elva0-1
04/07/22HFI Vs Tulevik4-0
30/06/22AFCI Levadia II Vs FI4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWL1.92
HomeWLLDW2.00
AwayWWWDL1.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%62%54%
AVG goals3.733.853.62
Over 1.5 %96%100%92%
Over 2.5 %69%77%62%
Over 3.5 %50%46%54%
Scored2.462.542.38
Conceded1.271.311.23
BTTS69%85%54%
Clean Sheet23%15%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDL1.73
HomeWLWWL2.08
AwayLWWLD1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%69%38%
AVG goals3.773.623.92
Over 1.5 %88%85%92%
Over 2.5 %81%85%77%
Over 3.5 %54%54%54%
Scored2.232.312.15
Conceded1.541.311.77
BTTS58%46%69%
Clean Sheet31%38%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3676
67%
2.1
9746+51
4.0
81%
69%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.71.3
-
2FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3668
58%
1.9
8545+40
3.6
94%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.2
-
3ElvaElva3666
56%
1.8
7652+24
3.6
81%
53%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
4ViimsiViimsi3663
56%
1.8
7640+36
3.2
75%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II3662
53%
1.7
8852+36
3.9
89%
78%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.4
-
6Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3660
50%
1.7
7956+23
3.8
94%
64%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.21.6
-
7Paide IIPaide II3652
47%
1.4
7588-13
4.5
100%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.4
-
8K-Järve JK JärveK-Järve JK Järve3831
24%
0.8
33108-75
3.7
84%
76%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.8
-
9TulevikTulevik3623
17%
0.6
28102-74
3.6
86%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.8
-
10PärnuPärnu3620
11%
0.6
3077-47
3.0
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II21
0%
0.5
34-1
3.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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