FCI Levadia II are tipped to win the match, with a 46% chance of a home victory, 25% for a draw and 29% for an away win. The model expects an average of 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is two goals, a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.7% chance. Levadia’s home form shows they average 2.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded against similar opponents, while Flora’s away record is 1.43 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selection list includes an 82.7% probability for Over 1.5 goals, a hit in the past. The recent form narrative is clear: Levadia are coming off a defeat, whereas Flora arrive after a win. The match is projected to be a tight contest, with the home side favored to edge out the visitors.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Flora II snatched a 2-1 victory, overturning the pre-match favourite, Home win, which the model had given a 46% chance. The final score of 1-2 meant the model’s call was wrong. The win extends Flora’s recent run, coming off a 5-0 triumph, while Levadia II, after a 2-4 loss, was still on a shaky streak. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with an 82.7% probability, confirming the match’s high-scoring nature. The expected total of 3.1 was surpassed, and the most likely score of 1-1 was missed, but the overall prediction framework still captured the game’s excitement.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FCI Levadia II win✗ Miss
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora II win✓ Hit
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FCI Levadia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.33
2.92
1.23
1.82
1.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.80
1.45
2.38
1.38
1.42
1.50
vs Weaker (10)
3.30
1.10
3.80
1.00
2.80
1.20
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.57
1.50
3.31
1.81
1.71
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.87
1.47
2.25
1.88
1.43
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
3.27
1.53
4.38
1.75
2.00
1.29
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.1%
Under 2.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.7%
Under 3.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.4%
No
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.3%
1-2 ✓
7.2%
2-0
6.9%
1-0
6.8%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
5.5%
3-1
5.4%
FCI Levadia II goals ↓
Flora II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
5.0%
4.1%
1.8%
0.6%
1
6.8%
12%
7.2%
3.2%
1.1%
2
6.9%
9.3%
6.3%
2.8%
1.0%
3
4.0%
5.4%
3.7%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.8%
2.4%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCI Levadia II goals (down), columns = Flora II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nõmme United
2.50
Viimsi
1.97
Flora II
1.92
FCI Levadia II
1.58
JK Tabasalu
1.53
FC Tallinn
1.44
Paide II
1.14
Elva
1.11
Tartu Kalev
1.00
Legion
0.58
K-Järve JK Järve
0.56
FCI Levadia II is 0.33 points worse than Flora II in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.17
Flora II
2.39
JK Tabasalu
2.25
FC Tallinn
2.00
Viimsi
1.86
Paide II
1.83
FCI Levadia II
1.58
K-Järve JK Järve
1.39
Elva
1.21
Legion
1.03
Tartu Kalev
0.50
FCI Levadia II is 0.81 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 2.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Nõmme United
0.81
Viimsi
0.97
FCI Levadia II
1.28
Flora II
1.47
FC Tallinn
1.81
JK Tabasalu
1.94
Elva
2.00
Paide II
2.28
Legion
2.69
K-Järve JK Järve
3.42
FCI Levadia II is 0.19 goals better than Flora II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FCI Levadia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.60
1.38
0.54
0.71
0.65
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.70
1.00
0.50
0.58
0.83
vs Weaker (10)
1.50
0.40
2.00
0.60
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.63
1.69
0.62
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.60
1.75
0.62
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.33
0.67
1.62
0.62
1.00
0.71
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FCI Levadia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.73
1.54
0.69
1.12
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.75
1.38
0.88
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (10)
1.80
0.70
1.80
0.40
1.80
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.87
1.62
1.19
1.14
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.87
0.50
1.25
1.29
0.43
vs Weaker (15)
1.93
0.87
2.75
1.12
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Nõmme United
Viimsi
JK Tabasalu
FC Tallinn
Elva
Paide II
Legion
K-Järve JK Järve
Tartu Kalev