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FCI Levadia II vs Flora II Result & Analysis

Date: 13/08/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 0-0
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Vs
35%
26%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The match between FCI Levadia II and Flora II is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 35% and 39% respectively, while a draw is 26%. The expected total of 3.1 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring game, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, with a 23% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12% probability. Levadia’s home form shows they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Flora, playing away, averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded to comparable teams. The model’s selection list includes Over 1.5 with an 82.4% chance, the only pick offered. The recent form narrative is that Levadia are coming off a 2-4 loss, while Flora arrive after a 5-0 victory. These details underline the fine balance and the model’s confidence in an away win.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, an away win at 39 percent, failed to materialise as the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s call incorrect. The game saw no goals, a result that also meant the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.4 percent probability, missed. Levadia II, who had come off a defeat and were on a mixed run of LWLLW, could not break the deadlock, while Flora II, fresh from a 5-0 victory and on a WDWLW streak, were unable to secure the win. The final score of 0-0 capped an unexpected stalemate in the Estonian Esiliiga A.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FCI Levadia II win✗ Miss
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora II win✗ Miss
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-662W21W12L20W00D24L10W30W20W04LA·K-J29/05A·ELV04/06H·FLO08/06H·PAI12/06A·LEG02/07H·VII08/07H·NÕM18/07H·ELV22/07A·FLO31/07A·NÕM05/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.272.640.931.501.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)1.821.322.500.901.251.67
vs Weaker (8)2.621.123.001.002.251.25
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W31W21W02L21W31W60W03L02L40WH·ELV25/05H·VII28/05A·FCI08/06A·NÕM11/06H·FC 04/07A·K-J08/07A·LEG13/07H·NÕM22/07H·FCI31/07A·LEG05/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.371.472.732.002.000.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.311.621.502.001.121.25
vs Weaker (14)3.571.294.142.003.000.57
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.6%
Under 2.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.2%
Under 3.5
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.8%
No
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.1%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
0-2
5.8%
1-0
5.7%
0-0 ✓
5.7%
FCI Levadia II goals ↓
Flora II goals →
01234
05.7%6.2%5.8%3.1%1.2%
15.7%12%8.7%4.6%1.8%
25.1%8.1%6.5%3.4%1.4%
32.5%4.0%3.2%1.7%0.7%
40.9%1.5%1.2%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCI Levadia II goals (down), columns = Flora II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.50
Viimsi
1.97
Flora II
1.92
FCI Levadia II
1.58
JK Tabasalu
1.53
FC Tallinn
1.44
Paide II
1.14
Elva
1.11
Tartu Kalev
1.00
Legion
0.58
K-Järve JK Järve
0.56
FCI Levadia II is 0.33 points worse than Flora II in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.92).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.17
Flora II
2.39
JK Tabasalu
2.25
FC Tallinn
2.00
Viimsi
1.86
Paide II
1.83
FCI Levadia II
1.58
K-Järve JK Järve
1.39
Elva
1.21
Legion
1.03
Tartu Kalev
0.50
FCI Levadia II is 0.81 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 2.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tartu Kalev
0.50
Nõmme United
0.81
Viimsi
0.97
FCI Levadia II
1.28
Flora II
1.47
FC Tallinn
1.81
JK Tabasalu
1.94
Elva
2.00
Paide II
2.28
Legion
2.69
K-Järve JK Järve
3.42
FCI Levadia II is 0.19 goals better than Flora II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L11D10W00D13L00D00D00D03LA·K-J29/05A·ELV04/06H·FLO08/06H·PAI12/06A·LEG02/07H·VII08/07H·NÕM18/07H·ELV22/07A·FLO31/07A·NÕM05/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.701.140.640.500.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.680.770.900.600.500.92
vs Weaker (8)1.120.501.750.750.500.25
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W10W11D01L01L11D20W02L00D20WH·ELV25/05H·VII28/05A·FCI08/06A·NÕM11/06H·FC 04/07A·K-J08/07A·LEG13/07H·NÕM22/07H·FCI31/07A·LEG05/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.731.330.870.670.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.620.881.001.000.250.75
vs Weaker (14)1.430.571.710.711.140.43
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W20W01L10W00D11D10W30W20W01LA·K-J29/05A·ELV04/06H·FLO08/06H·PAI12/06A·LEG02/07H·VII08/07H·NÕM18/07H·ELV22/07A·FLO31/07A·NÕM05/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.571.500.291.000.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)1.140.551.600.300.750.75
vs Weaker (8)1.500.621.250.251.751.00
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D21W10W01L20W20W40W01L02L20WH·ELV25/05H·VII28/05A·FCI08/06A·NÕM11/06H·FC 04/07A·K-J08/07A·LEG13/07H·NÕM22/07H·FCI31/07A·LEG05/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.731.401.131.330.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.690.750.501.000.880.50
vs Weaker (14)2.140.712.431.291.860.14
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
FLI wins
0
Draws
3
FI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FCI Levadia II vs Flora II · H/A from FLI
DateH/AGameScore
31/07/23AFlora II Vs FLI0-2
08/06/23HFLI Vs Flora II1-2
06/11/22AFlora II Vs FLI1-2
05/09/22HFLI Vs Flora II0-3
30/06/22HFLI Vs Flora II4-1
21/03/22AFlora II Vs FLI4-1

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/23ANõmme United Vs FLI4-0
31/07/23AFlora II Vs FLI0-2
22/07/23HFLI Vs Elva3-0
18/07/23HFLI Vs Nõmme United1-0
08/07/23HFLI Vs Viimsi2-4
02/07/23ALegion Vs FLI0-0
12/06/23HFLI Vs Paide II2-0
08/06/23HFLI Vs Flora II1-2
04/06/23AElva Vs FLI1-2
29/05/23AK-Järve JK Järve Vs FLI2-6

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/23ALegion Vs FI0-4
31/07/23HFI Vs FCI Levadia II0-2
22/07/23HFI Vs Nõmme United0-3
13/07/23ALegion Vs FI0-6
08/07/23AK-Järve JK Järve Vs FI1-3
04/07/23HFI Vs FC Tallinn2-1
11/06/23ANõmme United Vs FI2-0
08/06/23AFCI Levadia II Vs FI1-2
28/05/23HFI Vs Viimsi3-1
25/05/23HFI Vs Elva2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL1.88
HomeLWLWW1.92
AwayWWDWL1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%60%56%
AVG goals3.423.683.16
Over 1.5 %92%96%88%
Over 2.5 %68%76%60%
Over 3.5 %42%44%40%
Scored2.222.481.96
Conceded1.201.201.20
BTTS58%64%52%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLW1.86
HomeWWWLL1.88
AwayWLWWW1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%60%56%
AVG goals3.884.363.40
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %76%80%72%
Over 3.5 %50%56%44%
Scored2.462.722.20
Conceded1.421.641.20
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet34%28%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3690
78%
2.5
11429+85
4.0
89%
78%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.20.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3671
58%
2.0
6735+32
2.8
69%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
3Flora IIFlora II3669
61%
1.9
8653+33
3.9
86%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.5
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3657
44%
1.6
5746+11
2.9
81%
64%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
5JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3655
50%
1.5
8170+11
4.2
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.9
-
6FC TallinnFC Tallinn3652
44%
1.4
7265+7
3.8
86%
78%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.8
-
7ElvaElva3842
32%
1.1
4676-30
3.2
82%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
8Paide IIPaide II3641
33%
1.1
6682-16
4.1
78%
69%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
9LegionLegion3621
14%
0.6
3797-60
3.7
83%
75%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
10K-Järve JK JärveK-Järve JK Järve3620
17%
0.6
50123-73
4.8
92%
86%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.43.4
-
11Tartu KalevTartu Kalev22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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