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FCI Levadia II vs Flora II Result & Analysis

Date: 30/06/2024
Time: 09:30
Final 1-3
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Vs
35%
25%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

FCI Levadia II’s recent five-game run of LWLLW, ending with a 2-4 defeat to Maardu, hints at defensive frailties, while Flora II, fresh from a 5-0 triumph over Tallinna Kalev, boasts a potent attack. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.4 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% chance. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.7% probability. The favourite result is an away win, with a 41% probability, compared to a 35% home win and a 25% draw. Levadia II averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Flora II nets 2.5 and concedes 1.62 away. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5 goals at 86.1%. The final outcome, an away win, confirms the model’s pick.

Results analysis

The win extends Flora II’s strong run, while Levadia II’s recent form shows a mixed bag. The final score of 1-3 confirmed the model’s pick of an away win, a correct call. The model had given the away side a 41% chance of triumph. Its other selection, Over 1.5 goals, with an 86.1% probability, also hit, as the match produced three goals. The most likely total of 3 goals came in, and the 1-2 scoreline, the most probable score, was missed. The model’s predictions largely came through, delivering an accurate forecast of the result and the goal tally.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FCI Levadia II win✗ Miss
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora II win✓ Hit
40.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L30W23L43W30W24L22D31W01L32WH·LAA07/04H·PAI15/04A·TAR21/04A·FC 27/04H·TAL06/05A·LAA17/05H·TAR26/05A·TAL30/05H·FC 02/06A·ELV15/06
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.431.530.931.601.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.321.561.171.001.462.08
vs Weaker (5)2.800.803.000.672.501.00
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 – goals for & against
110-1131W42W13L02L11D22D42W11D111W40WA·TAL08/04A·FC 13/04H·VII19/04A·JK 28/04H·TAR04/05A·ELV12/05A·VII19/05H·LAA30/05A·PAI02/06H·JK 16/06
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.601.372.401.132.801.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)2.061.441.621.252.501.62
vs Weaker (14)3.211.293.291.003.141.57
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.7%
Under 2.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.8%
Under 3.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.4%
No
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
7.9%
2-2
6.9%
0-2
5.3%
0-1
5.0%
1-3 ✓
5.0%
1-0
4.5%
FCI Levadia II goals ↓
Flora II goals →
01234
04.4%5.0%5.3%3.1%1.4%
14.5%11%8.6%5.0%2.2%
24.5%7.9%6.9%4.1%1.8%
32.4%4.2%3.7%2.2%1.0%
41.0%1.7%1.5%0.9%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCI Levadia II goals (down), columns = Flora II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
FCI Levadia II is 0.61 points worse than Flora II in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.83).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
FCI Levadia II is 1.00 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 2.67).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
FCI Levadia II is 0.44 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W02L02L20W23L22D20W00D22DH·LAA07/04H·PAI15/04A·TAR21/04A·FC 27/04H·TAL06/05A·LAA17/05H·TAR26/05A·TAL30/05H·FC 02/06A·ELV15/06
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.800.930.270.731.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.720.920.830.330.621.46
vs Weaker (5)1.400.201.330.001.500.50
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D41W01L01L01L10W10W10W30W20WA·TAL08/04A·FC 13/04H·VII19/04A·JK 28/04H·TAR04/05A·ELV12/05A·VII19/05H·LAA30/05A·PAI02/06H·JK 16/06
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.631.070.531.130.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.000.690.750.751.250.62
vs Weaker (14)1.210.571.430.291.000.86
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W21W41W10W01L00D11D01L10WH·LAA07/04H·PAI15/04A·TAR21/04A·FC 27/04H·TAL06/05A·LAA17/05H·TAR26/05A·TAL30/05H·FC 02/06A·ELV15/06
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.630.600.670.870.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.600.640.330.670.850.62
vs Weaker (5)1.400.601.670.671.000.50
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-820W01L12L01L10W12L32W01L81W20WA·TAL08/04A·FC 13/04H·VII19/04A·JK 28/04H·TAR04/05A·ELV12/05A·VII19/05H·LAA30/05A·PAI02/06H·JK 16/06
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.500.731.330.601.670.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.060.750.880.501.251.00
vs Weaker (14)2.000.711.860.712.140.71
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
FLI wins
1
Draws
4
FI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FCI Levadia II vs Flora II · H/A from FLI
DateH/AGameScore
30/03/24AFlora II Vs FLI3-1
05/10/23AFlora II Vs FLI3-1
13/08/23HFLI Vs Flora II0-0
31/07/23AFlora II Vs FLI0-2
08/06/23HFLI Vs Flora II1-2
06/11/22AFlora II Vs FLI1-2
05/09/22HFLI Vs Flora II0-3
30/06/22HFLI Vs Flora II4-1

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/06/24AElva Vs FLI2-3
02/06/24HFLI Vs FC Tallinn0-1
30/05/24ATallinna Kalev II Vs FLI1-3
26/05/24HFLI Vs Tartu Welco2-2
17/05/24ALaagri Vs FLI4-2
06/05/24HFLI Vs Tallinna Kalev II3-0
27/04/24AFC Tallinn Vs FLI3-4
21/04/24ATartu Welco Vs FLI3-2
15/04/24HFLI Vs Paide II3-0
07/04/24HFLI Vs Laagri1-2

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/06/24HFI Vs JK Tabasalu4-0
02/06/24APaide II Vs FI1-11
30/05/24HFI Vs Laagri1-1
19/05/24AViimsi Vs FI2-4
12/05/24AElva Vs FI2-2
04/05/24HFI Vs Tartu Welco1-1
28/04/24AJK Tabasalu Vs FI2-0
19/04/24HFI Vs Viimsi1-3
13/04/24AFC Tallinn Vs FI2-4
08/04/24ATallinna Kalev II Vs FI1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLW1.60
HomeLWWDL1.60
AwayLWLWW1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%44%48%
AVG goals3.102.803.40
Over 1.5 %84%80%88%
Over 2.5 %68%68%68%
Over 3.5 %36%28%44%
Scored1.741.801.68
Conceded1.361.001.72
BTTS54%44%64%
Clean Sheet34%48%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWW1.92
HomeWLDDW2.04
AwayWLDWW1.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%64%56%
AVG goals3.904.043.76
Over 1.5 %90%96%84%
Over 2.5 %70%72%68%
Over 3.5 %52%48%56%
Scored2.482.562.40
Conceded1.421.481.36
BTTS62%68%56%
Clean Sheet26%24%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3678
61%
2.2
11042+68
4.2
89%
69%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.2
-
2ViimsiViimsi3675
61%
2.1
7542+33
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
3Flora IIFlora II3666
56%
1.8
9655+41
4.2
97%
72%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
4Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3660
44%
1.7
7044+26
3.2
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
5FC TallinnFC Tallinn3653
42%
1.5
6754+13
3.4
83%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
6ElvaElva3847
32%
1.2
5662-6
3.1
79%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3644
36%
1.2
6071-11
3.6
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
8Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3642
31%
1.2
7287-15
4.4
94%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.4
-
9Paide IIPaide II3625
19%
0.7
47121-74
4.7
89%
86%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.4
-
10JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3616
11%
0.4
35101-66
3.8
86%
78%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.8
-
11LegionLegion20
0%
0.0
09-9
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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