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FCI Levadia II vs Flora II Result & Analysis

Date: 18/08/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 1-2
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Vs
43%
21%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

FCI Levadia II’s recent form shows a mixed bag, but the model still favours a home win, with a 43% chance of victory, a 21% chance of a draw and a 36% chance of an away win. The expected total is 4.4 goals, and the most likely total is 6 + goals, with a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 2-2, with a 7.2% chance. Levadia’s home attack averages 1.82 goals per game while conceding 2.73 against similar opposition, whereas Flora’s away attack averages 1.64 and they concede 2.18. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 (94%), Over 2.5 (81.5%) and BTTS Yes (79.6%). Each of these selections carries its own probability, independent of the match-result odds. The model’s pick remains a home win.

Results analysis

The upset came early as Flora II edged Levadia II 2-1, overturning the pre-match favourite. The model had tipped a home win with a 43% probability, but the prediction proved wrong. The match still lived up to the model’s other selections: Over 1.5 goals hit, Over 2.5 goals hit, and BTTS Yes hit, each with 94%, 81.5%, and 79.6% probabilities respectively. Levadia’s recent run of LWLLW left them coming off a defeat, while Flora’s WDWLW streak saw them arrive after a 5-0 win. The final score of 1-2 confirmed an away victory, a clear reversal of the expected outcome.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FCI Levadia II win✗ Miss
42.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora II win✓ Hit
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-722D03L02L23L70W03L33D56L20W02LA·ELV01/06H·VII16/06H·FC 19/06A·NÕM30/06H·LUU05/07A·TAR12/07H·TAL18/07H·FC 26/07A·NÕM02/08A·ELV09/08
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.632.202.432.430.942.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.292.381.822.730.852.08
vs Weaker (6)3.001.504.671.331.331.67
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L22D12L00D20W14L04L12L32W11DA·FC 14/06H·TAL19/06A·LUU30/06H·VII05/07H·ELV12/07A·NÕM17/07A·NÕM21/07H·NÕM26/07A·FC 02/08H·TAL10/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.632.131.001.532.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.421.631.120.881.642.18
vs Weaker (11)2.551.643.291.141.252.50
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%2%04%113%217%319%417%528%6+
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
94.0%
Under 1.5
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
81.5%
Under 2.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
64.0%
Under 3.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
79.6%
No
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-2
7.2%
2-1
6.8%
1-1
6.5%
1-2 ✓
6.3%
3-2
5.5%
3-1
5.2%
2-3
5.0%
1-3
4.4%
FCI Levadia II goals ↓
Flora II goals →
01234
01.8%2.0%2.7%1.9%1.0%
12.2%6.5%6.3%4.4%2.3%
23.2%6.8%7.2%5.0%2.7%
32.5%5.2%5.5%3.8%2.0%
41.4%3.0%3.1%2.2%1.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCI Levadia II goals (down), columns = Flora II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.56
Viimsi
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.75
Elva
1.61
Flora II
1.33
Nõmme Kalju II
1.25
FCI Levadia II
1.25
FC Tallinn
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tallinna Kalev II
0.75
Luunja
0.28
FCI Levadia II is 0.08 points worse than Flora II in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.47
Viimsi
2.31
Tartu Welco
2.11
Elva
1.72
FCI Levadia II
1.72
Flora II
1.69
FC Tallinn
1.66
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
1.47
Luunja
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
FCI Levadia II is 0.03 goals better than Flora II in terms of goals scored per game (1.72 vs 1.69).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nõmme United
0.75
Viimsi
0.75
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.56
Flora II
1.56
Elva
1.64
FCI Levadia II
1.86
FC Tallinn
2.03
Nõmme Kalju II
2.19
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Luunja
3.81
FCI Levadia II is 0.31 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D01L01L13L40W01L22D34L20W01LA·ELV01/06H·VII16/06H·FC 19/06A·NÕM30/06H·LUU05/07A·TAR12/07H·TAL18/07H·FC 26/07A·NÕM02/08A·ELV09/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.201.571.290.691.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.881.331.181.360.621.31
vs Weaker (6)2.000.673.001.001.000.33
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L01L00D10W14L02L00D21W00DA·FC 14/06H·TAL19/06A·LUU30/06H·VII05/07H·ELV12/07A·NÕM17/07A·NÕM21/07H·NÕM26/07A·FC 02/08H·TAL10/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.800.870.270.871.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.840.950.750.380.911.36
vs Weaker (11)0.910.551.000.140.751.25
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L01L10W30W02L11D22D00D01LA·ELV01/06H·VII16/06H·FC 19/06A·NÕM30/06H·LUU05/07A·TAR12/07H·TAL18/07H·FC 26/07A·NÕM02/08A·ELV09/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.000.861.140.250.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.421.040.641.360.230.77
vs Weaker (6)1.000.831.670.330.331.33
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora IIFlora II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W11D00D10W00D02L12L11D11DA·FC 14/06H·TAL19/06A·LUU30/06H·VII05/07H·ELV12/07A·NÕM17/07A·NÕM21/07H·NÕM26/07A·FC 02/08H·TAL10/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.831.270.730.670.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.580.680.380.500.730.82
vs Weaker (11)1.641.092.291.000.501.25
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.594.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.581.5%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes79.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
FLI wins
1
Draws
7
FI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FCI Levadia II vs Flora II · H/A from FLI
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/25HFLI Vs Flora II0-2
02/03/25AFlora II Vs FLI2-0
02/11/24HFLI Vs Flora II2-4
21/08/24AFlora II Vs FLI4-1
30/06/24HFLI Vs Flora II1-3
30/03/24AFlora II Vs FLI3-1
05/10/23AFlora II Vs FLI3-1
13/08/23HFLI Vs Flora II0-0

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/25AElva Vs FLI2-0
02/08/25ANõmme United Vs FLI0-2
26/07/25HFLI Vs FC Tallinn5-6
18/07/25HFLI Vs Tallinna Kalev II3-3
12/07/25ATartu Welco Vs FLI3-0
05/07/25HFLI Vs Luunja7-0
30/06/25ANõmme Kalju II Vs FLI3-2
19/06/25HFLI Vs FC Tallinn0-2
16/06/25HFLI Vs Viimsi0-3
01/06/25AElva Vs FLI2-2

Flora IIFlora II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/25HFI Vs Tallinna Kalev II1-1
02/08/25AFC Tallinn Vs FI2-3
26/07/25HFI Vs Nõmme Kalju II1-2
21/07/25ANõmme United Vs FI4-0
17/07/25ANõmme United Vs FI4-1
12/07/25HFI Vs Elva2-0
05/07/25HFI Vs Viimsi0-0
30/06/25ALuunja Vs FI2-1
19/06/25HFI Vs Tallinna Kalev II2-2
14/06/25AFC Tallinn Vs FI1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWL1.02
HomeLLWDL1.22
AwayDLLWL0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%35%22%
AVG goals3.624.173.15
Over 1.5 %86%87%85%
Over 2.5 %66%78%56%
Over 3.5 %48%52%44%
Scored1.542.091.07
Conceded2.082.092.07
BTTS60%65%56%
Clean Sheet12%13%11%
Corners---
Cards---
Flora II
Flora II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWD1.56
HomeDDWLD1.64
AwayLLLLW1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%48%40%
AVG goals3.963.444.48
Over 1.5 %92%88%96%
Over 2.5 %70%60%80%
Over 3.5 %60%48%72%
Scored2.402.322.48
Conceded1.561.122.00
BTTS66%44%88%
Clean Sheet22%40%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3692
83%
2.6
12527+98
4.2
92%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.50.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3678
67%
2.2
8327+56
3.1
81%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.8
-
3Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3663
50%
1.8
7656+20
3.7
86%
72%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.6
-
4ElvaElva3658
47%
1.6
6259+3
3.4
86%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
5Flora IIFlora II3648
36%
1.3
6156+5
3.2
83%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
6FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3645
33%
1.2
6267-5
3.6
89%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
7Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II3645
36%
1.2
5679-23
3.8
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn3842
29%
1.1
6377-14
3.7
89%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
9Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3627
14%
0.8
5396-43
4.1
94%
81%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.7
-
10LuunjaLuunja3610
8%
0.3
40137-97
4.9
89%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.8
-
11PhoenixPhoenix22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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