FCI Levadia II’s recent 2-4 loss to Maardu suggests a defensive frailty, yet their home form shows a respectable 1.73 goals scored and 2.00 conceded against similar opposition. Flora II, fresh from a 5-0 triumph over Tallinna Kalev, averages only 0.82 goals scored and 1.91 conceded away, indicating a cautious approach. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.3 goals, most likely total 3 goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11% chance. Home win is the favoured result, with a 40% probability, draw 25%, and away win 35%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.6%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.3%), Under 6.5 (94.8%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (94.6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.3%), and Home under 3.5 goals (90.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FCI Levadia II win
40.5%
Avg Implied 37.9% · @ 2.38
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Dafabet
2.45
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.03
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Dafabet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Flora II win
34.6%
Avg Implied 39.7% · @ 2.28
Edge
-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Marathonbet
2.25
Dafabet
2.24
Betfair
2.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FCI Levadia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
2.00
2.33
1.80
1.87
2.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.68
2.20
1.83
2.08
1.54
2.31
vs Weaker (5)
4.20
1.00
4.33
0.67
4.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.53
2.08
1.77
1.82
1.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.94
1.62
2.25
0.80
1.70
vs Weaker (12)
3.08
0.92
2.80
1.00
3.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.3%
@ 1.05-3.0%
Under 1.5
14.7%
@ 7.93+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Under
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Superbet
6.80
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.4%
@ 1.23-10.2%
Under 2.5
35.6%
@ 3.59+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Unibet
1.21
Under
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.3%
@ 1.63-14.1%
Under 3.5
57.7%
@ 2.11+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.67
Betfair
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Unibet
1.61
1xBet
1.57
Under
1xBet
2.24
Betfair
2.20
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
Unibet
1.95
Both teams to score
Yes
66.4%
@ 1.25-7.8%
No
33.6%
@ 3.59+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
No
1xBet
3.79
Betfair
3.70
Superbet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.42
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%@ 9.67+6.6%
2-1
8.6%@ 10.50+4.6%
1-2
7.9%@ 9.67+3.6%
2-2
6.8%@ 9.50+2.4%
2-0
5.4%@ 19.33+3.3%
1-0
5.3%@ 18.67+3.0%
3-1
5.0%@ 14.67+2.1%
0-1
4.8%@ 17.67+2.4%
FCI Levadia II goals ↓
Flora II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
4.8%
4.6%
2.4%
1.0%
1
5.3%
11%
7.9%
4.2%
1.7%
2
5.4%
8.6%
6.8%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.1%
5.0%
3.9%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.3%
2.1%
1.7%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCI Levadia II goals (down), columns = Flora II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
FCI Levadia II is 0.51 points better than Flora II in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
FCI Levadia II is 0.29 goals better than Flora II in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 1.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
FCI Levadia II is 0.75 goals worse than Flora II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.11 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FCI Levadia II or Draw
65.4%
Avg Implied 60.5% · @ 1.51
Edge
+4.8%
40%
25%
35%
covers FCI Levadia II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.61
Bet365
1.60
Betfair
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Superbet
1.46
FCI Levadia II or Flora II
75.1%
Avg Implied 77.8% · @ 1.17
Edge
-2.7%
40%
25%
35%
covers FCI Levadia II + Flora II
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Draw or Flora II
59.5%
Avg Implied 61.7% · @ 1.48
Edge
-2.2%
40%
25%
35%
covers Draw + Flora II
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.53
Unibet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5
Over
82.2%
@ 1.09-2.0%
Under
17.8%
@ 5.82+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Under
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Superbet
5.45
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5
Over
51.5%
@ 1.55-7.3%
Under
48.5%
@ 2.22+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Superbet
1.53
Unibet
1.50
Under
Superbet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.23
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.17
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5
Over
25.0%
@ 2.83-7.4%
Under
75.0%
@ 1.35+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.92
1xBet
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.62
Under
Superbet
1.39
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
FCI Levadia II over/under 3.5
Over
9.7%
@ 6.00-5.7%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.09+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Flora II over/under 0.5
Over
79.6%
@ 1.08-5.2%
Under
20.4%
@ 6.05+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Under
1xBet
7.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.15
Flora II over/under 1.5
Over
47.2%
@ 1.55-12.2%
Under
52.8%
@ 2.26+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.63
Superbet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.55
Betfair
1.53
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.50
Betfair
2.38
Marathonbet
2.24
Superbet
2.17
Unibet
2.00
Flora II over/under 2.5
Over
21.4%
@ 2.69-12.6%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.39+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.78
Superbet
2.75
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.44
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Flora II over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
@ 5.25-10.0%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.13+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.00
Under
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.13
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FCI Levadia II, so a minus line means FCI Levadia II give that many goals of a start and Flora II receive them. At -1, FCI Levadia II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FCI Levadia II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FCI Levadia II)
FCI Levadia II -2
9.2%
Draw -2
12.4%
Flora II +2
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FCI Levadia II)
FCI Levadia II -1
21.6%
@ 3.83-0.7%
Draw -1
18.8%
@ 4.30-1.0%
Flora II +1
59.5%
@ 1.48+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.15
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
3.65
Away
Unibet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.44
Handicap +1 (FCI Levadia II)
FCI Levadia II +1
65.4%
@ 1.46+6.8%
Draw +1
17.3%
@ 4.32-2.6%
Flora II -1
17.4%
@ 3.96-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Unibet
1.36
Draw
Marathonbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
3.85
Away
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Unibet
3.90
Handicap +2 (FCI Levadia II)
FCI Levadia II +2
82.6%
Draw +2
10.5%
Flora II -2
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FCI Levadia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.90
1.20
0.80
1.27
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.04
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.08
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
0.40
2.00
0.00
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.08
0.69
1.00
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.89
0.75
1.00
0.30
0.80
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
0.17
1.60
0.20
2.00
0.14
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.1%
@ 1.13-6.4%
Under 0.5
24.9%
@ 4.98+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Under
1xBet
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.45
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.5%
@ 1.72-12.0%
Under 1.5
58.5%
@ 1.99+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.79
Superbet
1.75
Unibet
1.73
1xBet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Under
1xBet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.89
Unibet
1.87
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.1%
@ 3.20-11.5%
Under 2.5
82.9%
@ 1.28+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Under
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.26
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.4%
@ 1.56-8.6%
Under
49.6%
@ 2.25+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Under
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.3%
@ 4.00-8.8%
Under
85.7%
@ 1.20+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.00
Under
1xBet
1.20
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.3%
@ 1.52-14.6%
Under
54.7%
@ 2.27+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.40
Superbet
2.15
Flora II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.4%
@ 3.60-12.0%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.22+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.22
Flora II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
@ 10.00-6.8%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.03+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Under
1xBet
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FCI Levadia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.10
1.13
1.00
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.64
1.20
0.83
1.08
0.46
1.31
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
0.60
2.33
0.67
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flora II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
1.00
1.08
0.82
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.67
1.06
0.88
1.25
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
0.75
1.20
0.80
1.29
0.71
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.3%
@ 1.05-7.9%
Under 0.5
19.7%
@ 7.80+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.05
Under
1xBet
7.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.8%
@ 1.40-11.2%
Under 1.5
46.2%
@ 2.62+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.37
Under
1xBet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.53
Superbet
2.52
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.5%
@ 2.28-19.8%
Under 2.5
79.5%
@ 1.54+19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.36
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.15
Under
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.48
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.5%
@ 1.38-10.6%
Under
44.5%
@ 2.68+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Under
Superbet
2.70
1xBet
2.66
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.2%
Under
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.6%
@ 1.41-11.2%
Under
46.4%
@ 2.58+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Under
Superbet
2.62
1xBet
2.55
Flora II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.1%
Under
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.8%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.3%
1.13
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-
+10.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
90.3%
1.09
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
+5.7%
Under 5.5
88.1%
1.22
1xBet
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Superbet
1.19
-
-
+12.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
-
+12.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.7%
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
-
-
-
+8.8%
Over 1.5
85.3%
1.05
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
-
-
-3.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.9%
1.28
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.26
-
-
+11.5%
Home +2 handicap
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.2%
1.09
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
-
-
-2.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-
-7.9%
Away over 0.5 goals
79.6%
1.08
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-5.2%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.5%
1.54
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.48
-
-
+19.8%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.6%
1.39
1xBet
1.44
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
-
+12.6%
Away +2 handicap
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.9%
1.47
1xBet
1.58
Betfair
1.50
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.38
+13.8%
Home or Away
75.1%
1.17
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.16
-2.7%
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.1%
1.13
Betfair
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-6.4%
Home under 2.5 goals
75.0%
1.35
Superbet
1.39
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
-
+7.4%
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Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →