PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

FCI Levadia II vs Nõmme Kalju II Prediction & Stats

Date: 14/10/2026
Time: 16:00
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Vs
51%
23%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

FCI Levadia II’s recent 2-4 loss to Maardu has left them looking to rebound, while Nõmme Kalju II, fresh from a 2-0 win over FC Tallinn, are eager to maintain momentum. The model favours a home win, with a 51% chance, a 23% draw probability and a 26% chance of an away victory. The expected total goals sit at 3.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.7% probability. Levadia’s home form shows they average 1.73 goals scored and concede 2.0 against similar opposition, whereas Kalju’s away record yields 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (97.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.1%), Under 6.5 (93.3%), Home +2 handicap (88.2%), Over 1.5 (87.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.5%), Under 5.5 (85.4%) and Home under 3.5 goals (84.2%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FCI Levadia II win
51.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II win
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D40W32W20W22D21W05L24L21W24LA·TAL09/11A·FLO05/07H·TAL11/07A·NÕM18/07H·ELV01/08A·NÕM08/08A·VII15/08A·TAR20/08H·FC 23/08A·MAA29/08
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.102.002.331.801.872.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.682.201.832.081.542.31
vs Weaker (5)4.201.004.330.674.001.50
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D22D02L05L14L03L02L03L24L20WH·ELV05/07A·VII11/07H·FCI18/07H·FLO25/07H·MAA01/08A·FLO10/08A·NÕM17/08H·TAL20/08H·TAR23/08A·FC 29/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.502.201.502.441.501.93
vs Stronger (11)1.273.001.333.001.203.00
vs Similar (17)1.291.821.332.221.251.38
vs Weaker (2)4.501.004.001.005.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.5%
Under 1.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.4%
Under 2.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.9%
Under 3.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.7%
No
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%
2-1
9.2%
2-2
6.6%
3-1
6.4%
2-0
6.4%
1-2
6.4%
1-0
5.3%
3-2
4.6%
FCI Levadia II goals ↓
Nõmme Kalju II goals →
01234
03.8%3.4%3.1%1.5%0.5%
15.3%9.7%6.4%3.1%1.1%
26.4%9.2%6.6%3.2%1.2%
34.4%6.4%4.6%2.2%0.8%
42.3%3.3%2.4%1.2%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCI Levadia II goals (down), columns = Nõmme Kalju II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
FCI Levadia II is 1.28 points better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 0.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
FCI Levadia II is 1.21 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 0.90).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
FCI Levadia II is 0.59 goals better than Nõmme Kalju II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.11 vs 2.70).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FCI Levadia II or Draw
74.3%
Avg Implied -
51%
23%
26%
covers FCI Levadia II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II or Nõmme Kalju II
77.1%
Avg Implied -
51%
23%
26%
covers FCI Levadia II + Nõmme Kalju II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nõmme Kalju II
48.6%
Avg Implied -
51%
23%
26%
covers Draw + Nõmme Kalju II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5
Over
87.5%
Under
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5
Over
61.6%
Under
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5
Over
34.5%
Under
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 3.5
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to FCI Levadia II, so a minus line means FCI Levadia II give that many goals of a start and Nõmme Kalju II receive them. At -1, FCI Levadia II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FCI Levadia II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FCI Levadia II)
FCI Levadia II -2
15.3%
Draw -2
15.7%
Nõmme Kalju II +2
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FCI Levadia II)
FCI Levadia II -1
31.0%
Draw -1
20.4%
Nõmme Kalju II +1
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FCI Levadia II)
FCI Levadia II +1
74.3%
Draw +1
13.9%
Nõmme Kalju II -1
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FCI Levadia II)
FCI Levadia II +2
88.2%
Draw +2
7.6%
Nõmme Kalju II -2
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W20W10W00D10W02L12L11D22DA·TAL09/11A·FLO05/07H·TAL11/07A·NÕM18/07H·ELV01/08A·NÕM08/08A·VII15/08A·TAR20/08H·FC 23/08A·MAA29/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.901.200.801.271.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.041.001.001.001.081.00
vs Weaker (5)2.200.402.000.002.501.00
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W22D01L02L11D03L00D01L21W10WH·ELV05/07A·VII11/07H·FCI18/07H·FLO25/07H·MAA01/08A·FLO10/08A·NÕM17/08H·TAL20/08H·TAR23/08A·FC 29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.770.810.750.930.79
vs Stronger (11)0.641.270.500.830.801.80
vs Similar (17)0.760.530.890.780.620.25
vs Weaker (2)3.000.002.000.004.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W12L10W22D11D03L12L10W02LA·TAL09/11A·FLO05/07H·TAL11/07A·NÕM18/07H·ELV01/08A·NÕM08/08A·VII15/08A·TAR20/08H·FC 23/08A·MAA29/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.101.131.000.601.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.641.200.831.080.461.31
vs Weaker (5)2.000.602.330.671.500.50
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme Kalju II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D01L03L03L00D02L02L03L10WH·ELV05/07A·VII11/07H·FCI18/07H·FLO25/07H·MAA01/08A·FLO10/08A·NÕM17/08H·TAL20/08H·TAR23/08A·FC 29/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.430.691.690.571.14
vs Stronger (11)0.641.730.832.170.401.20
vs Similar (17)0.531.290.441.440.621.12
vs Weaker (2)1.501.002.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme Kalju II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals94.1%-------
Under 6.593.3%-------
Home +2 handicap88.2%-------
Over 1.587.5%-------
Home over 0.5 goals87.5%-------
Under 5.585.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals84.2%-------
Away under 2.5 goals82.3%-------
Home or Away77.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals76.4%-------
Home or Draw74.3%-------
Home +1 handicap74.3%-------
Under 4.572.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
FLI wins
2
Draws
1
NKI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FCI Levadia II vs Nõmme Kalju II · H/A from FLI
DateH/AGameScore
18/07/26ANõmme Kalju II Vs FLI0-2
20/10/25HFLI Vs Nõmme Kalju II0-0
15/09/25HFLI Vs Nõmme Kalju II3-3
30/06/25ANõmme Kalju II Vs FLI3-2
28/04/25ANõmme Kalju II Vs FLI0-1

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AMaardu Vs FLI4-2
23/08/26HFLI Vs FC Tallinn2-1
20/08/26ATartu Welco Vs FLI4-2
15/08/26AViimsi Vs FLI5-0
08/08/26ANõmme United II Vs FLI1-2
01/08/26HFLI Vs Elva2-2
18/07/26ANõmme Kalju II Vs FLI0-2
11/07/26HFLI Vs Tallinna Kalev3-2
05/07/26AFlora II Vs FLI0-4
09/11/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs FLI1-1

Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AFC Tallinn Vs NKI0-2
23/08/26HNKI Vs Tartu Welco2-4
20/08/26HNKI Vs Tallinna Kalev0-3
17/08/26ANõmme United II Vs NKI2-0
10/08/26AFlora II Vs NKI3-0
01/08/26HNKI Vs Maardu1-4
25/07/26HNKI Vs Flora II0-5
18/07/26HNKI Vs FCI Levadia II0-2
11/07/26AViimsi Vs NKI2-2
05/07/26HNKI Vs Elva2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL1.24
HomeWWWDW1.29
AwayWWLLL1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%33%35%
AVG goals3.744.043.46
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %68%75%62%
Over 3.5 %48%50%46%
Scored1.762.081.46
Conceded1.981.962.00
BTTS58%67%50%
Clean Sheet18%17%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.09
HomeLLLLL1.04
AwayLDLLW1.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%29%32%
AVG goals3.723.923.50
Over 1.5 %89%92%86%
Over 2.5 %76%79%73%
Over 3.5 %50%58%41%
Scored1.411.501.32
Conceded2.302.422.18
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet17%12%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva918
56%
2.0
147+7
2.3
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
2MaarduMaardu918
67%
2.0
2018+2
4.2
78%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
3ViimsiViimsi1016
50%
1.6
2314+9
3.7
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II916
56%
1.8
1919+0
4.2
100%
89%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II1114
36%
1.3
2015+5
3.2
82%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
6Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev813
50%
1.6
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7Tartu WelcoTartu Welco812
50%
1.5
2115+6
4.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.9
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn911
33%
1.2
811-3
2.1
78%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II98
22%
0.9
916-7
2.8
89%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II105
10%
0.5
927-18
3.6
100%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.7
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

← all matches