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FCI Levadia II vs Tallinna Kalev II Result & Analysis

Date: 29/03/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 4-1
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Vs
45%
23%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FCI Levadia II winâś“ Hit
44.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II winâś— Miss
32.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-543W15L23L00D23L24L13L02L12L11DH·LAA28/09A·PAI07/10H·FC 20/10H·ELV24/10A·JK 28/10H·FLO02/11A·TAL10/11A·FLO02/03H·NĂ•M09/03A·FC 16/03
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.402.131.641.861.192.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.412.111.771.771.072.43
vs Weaker (3)1.332.330.003.002.002.00
Clean sheet %7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-716L02L71W42W11D31W31W12L11D22DA·FLO06/10H·FC 09/10A·PAI15/10H·TAR18/10A·ELV27/10H·VII02/11H·FCI10/11H·NĂ•M03/03A·TAR06/03H·FLO16/03
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.172.302.202.002.132.60
vs Stronger (14)1.792.502.331.671.383.12
vs Similar (16)2.502.122.112.223.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%117%220%319%415%519%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.3%
Under 1.5
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
73.6%
Under 2.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
53.3%
Under 3.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
73.2%
No
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.7%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
7.2%
1-2
7.0%
3-1
5.6%
3-2
5.0%
2-0
4.6%
2-3
4.2%
FCI Levadia II goals ↓
Tallinna Kalev II goals →
01234
03.0%3.0%3.4%2.0%0.9%
13.7%8.7%7.0%4.1%1.8%
24.6%8.2%7.2%4.2%1.9%
33.2%5.6%5.0%2.9%1.3%
41.6%2.9%2.6%1.5%0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCI Levadia II goals (down), columns = Tallinna Kalev II goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.56
Viimsi
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.75
Elva
1.61
Flora II
1.33
Nõmme Kalju II
1.25
FCI Levadia II
1.25
FC Tallinn
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tallinna Kalev II
0.75
Luunja
0.28
FCI Levadia II is 0.50 points better than Tallinna Kalev II in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 0.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.47
Viimsi
2.31
Tartu Welco
2.11
Elva
1.72
FCI Levadia II
1.72
Flora II
1.69
FC Tallinn
1.66
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
1.47
Luunja
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
FCI Levadia II is 0.25 goals better than Tallinna Kalev II in terms of goals scored per game (1.72 vs 1.47).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nõmme United
0.75
Viimsi
0.75
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.56
Flora II
1.56
Elva
1.64
FCI Levadia II
1.86
FC Tallinn
2.03
Nõmme Kalju II
2.19
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Luunja
3.81
FCI Levadia II is 0.81 goals better than Tallinna Kalev II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 2.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W14L22D00D11D23L11D01L02L00DH·LAA28/09A·PAI07/10H·FC 20/10H·ELV24/10A·JK 28/10H·FLO02/11A·TAL10/11A·FLO02/03H·NĂ•M09/03A·FC 16/03
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.031.000.860.691.19
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.811.071.080.850.571.29
vs Weaker (3)1.000.670.001.001.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L01L41W31W11D11D11D00D01L01LA·FLO06/10H·FC 09/10A·PAI15/10H·TAR18/10A·ELV27/10H·VII02/11H·FCI10/11H·NĂ•M03/03A·TAR06/03H·FLO16/03
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.100.801.131.001.07
vs Stronger (14)0.641.000.831.000.501.00
vs Similar (16)1.121.190.781.221.571.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L01L01L00D12L01L02L01L10W11DH·LAA28/09A·PAI07/10H·FC 20/10H·ELV24/10A·JK 28/10H·FLO02/11A·TAL10/11A·FLO02/03H·NĂ•M09/03A·FC 16/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.100.641.000.501.19
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.591.040.690.920.501.14
vs Weaker (3)0.331.670.002.000.501.50
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L01L30W11D00D20W20W12L10W21WA·FLO06/10H·FC 09/10A·PAI15/10H·TAR18/10A·ELV27/10H·VII02/11H·FCI10/11H·NĂ•M03/03A·TAR06/03H·FLO16/03
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.201.400.871.131.53
vs Stronger (14)1.141.501.500.670.882.12
vs Similar (16)1.380.941.331.001.430.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tallinna Kalev II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.3%-------âś“ Hit
Over 2.573.6%-------âś“ Hit
BTTS Yes73.2%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
FLI wins
0
Draws
2
TKI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FCI Levadia II vs Tallinna Kalev II · H/A from FLI
DateH/AGameScore
10/11/24ATallinna Kalev II Vs FLI3-1
18/08/24HFLI Vs Tallinna Kalev II0-3
30/05/24ATallinna Kalev II Vs FLI1-3
06/05/24HFLI Vs Tallinna Kalev II3-0

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/03/25AFC Tallinn Vs FLI1-1
09/03/25HFLI Vs Nõmme United1-2
02/03/25AFlora II Vs FLI2-0
10/11/24ATallinna Kalev II Vs FLI3-1
02/11/24HFLI Vs Flora II2-4
28/10/24AJK Tabasalu Vs FLI3-2
24/10/24HFLI Vs Elva0-0
20/10/24HFLI Vs FC Tallinn2-3
07/10/24APaide II Vs FLI5-1
28/09/24HFLI Vs Laagri4-3

Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/03/25HTKI Vs Flora II2-2
06/03/25ATartu Welco Vs TKI1-1
03/03/25HTKI Vs Nõmme Kalju II1-2
10/11/24HTKI Vs FCI Levadia II3-1
02/11/24HTKI Vs Viimsi3-1
27/10/24AElva Vs TKI1-1
18/10/24HTKI Vs Tartu Welco4-2
15/10/24APaide II Vs TKI1-7
09/10/24HTKI Vs FC Tallinn0-2
06/10/24AFlora II Vs TKI6-1

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD1.10
HomeWLDLL1.40
AwayLLLLD0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%40%20%
AVG goals3.363.243.48
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %72%80%64%
Over 3.5 %44%36%52%
Scored1.521.761.28
Conceded1.841.482.20
BTTS64%56%72%
Clean Sheet20%32%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Tallinna Kalev II
Tallinna Kalev II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDD1.10
HomeWWWLD1.05
AwayDLWDD1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %27%29%25%
AVG goals4.274.004.55
Over 1.5 %93%90%95%
Over 2.5 %83%81%85%
Over 3.5 %68%67%70%
Scored1.931.812.05
Conceded2.342.192.50
BTTS73%71%75%
Clean Sheet10%10%10%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3692
83%
2.6
12527+98
4.2
92%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.50.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3678
67%
2.2
8327+56
3.1
81%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.8
-
3Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3663
50%
1.8
7656+20
3.7
86%
72%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.6
-
4ElvaElva3658
47%
1.6
6259+3
3.4
86%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
5Flora IIFlora II3648
36%
1.3
6156+5
3.2
83%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
6FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3645
33%
1.2
6267-5
3.6
89%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
7Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II3645
36%
1.2
5679-23
3.8
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn3842
29%
1.1
6377-14
3.7
89%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
9Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3627
14%
0.8
5396-43
4.1
94%
81%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.7
-
10LuunjaLuunja3610
8%
0.3
40137-97
4.9
89%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.8
-
11PhoenixPhoenix22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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