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FCI Levadia II vs Tartu Welco Result & Analysis

Date: 19/09/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Vs
28%
26%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

FCI Levadia II win✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco win✗ Miss
46.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L11D11D02L21W03L14L04L21W21WA·PAI13/07A·TAR20/07A·VII27/07A·ELV03/08H·JK 11/08H·TAL18/08A·FLO21/08A·LAA24/08H·PAI31/08A·FC 15/09
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.871.801.401.532.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.621.921.831.331.432.43
vs Weaker (4)2.001.501.671.673.001.00
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-542W11D21W35L13L11D31W00D40W30WA·VII13/07H·FCI20/07A·PAI27/07H·FLO05/08H·VII10/08A·LAA17/08A·FC 20/08H·ELV24/08A·JK 31/08H·TAL14/09
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.041.151.791.362.310.92
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.601.471.441.561.831.33
vs Weaker (12)2.580.752.401.002.710.57
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.5%
Under 1.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.1%
Under 2.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.7%
Under 3.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.7%
No
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
7.4%
0-2
7.3%
2-1
7.0%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
6.0%
1-3
5.4%
FCI Levadia II goals ↓
Tartu Welco goals →
01234
06.0%7.4%7.3%4.2%1.8%
15.2%12%9.4%5.4%2.4%
24.1%7.0%6.1%3.5%1.5%
31.7%3.0%2.6%1.5%0.7%
40.6%1.0%0.8%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCI Levadia II goals (down), columns = Tartu Welco goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Laagri
2.17
Viimsi
2.08
Flora II
1.83
Tartu Welco
1.67
FC Tallinn
1.47
Elva
1.24
FCI Levadia II
1.22
Tallinna Kalev II
1.17
Paide II
0.69
JK Tabasalu
0.44
Legion
0.00
FCI Levadia II is 0.44 points worse than Tartu Welco in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.67).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Laagri
3.06
Flora II
2.67
Viimsi
2.08
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Tartu Welco
1.94
FC Tallinn
1.86
FCI Levadia II
1.67
Elva
1.47
Paide II
1.31
JK Tabasalu
0.97
Legion
0.00
FCI Levadia II is 0.28 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.94).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Laagri
1.17
Viimsi
1.17
Tartu Welco
1.22
FC Tallinn
1.50
Flora II
1.53
Elva
1.63
FCI Levadia II
1.97
Tallinna Kalev II
2.42
JK Tabasalu
2.81
Paide II
3.36
Legion
4.50
FCI Levadia II is 0.75 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.22).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D10W01L10W01L03L01L01L00DA·PAI13/07A·TAR20/07A·VII27/07A·ELV03/08H·JK 11/08H·TAL18/08A·FLO21/08A·LAA24/08H·PAI31/08A·FC 15/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.901.130.400.671.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.851.001.170.420.571.50
vs Weaker (4)1.250.251.000.332.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W00D10W12L02L01L11D00D10W00DA·VII13/07H·FCI20/07A·PAI27/07H·FLO05/08H·VII10/08A·LAA17/08A·FC 20/08H·ELV24/08A·JK 31/08H·TAL14/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.960.560.570.571.380.54
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.870.730.560.671.330.83
vs Weaker (12)1.080.330.600.401.430.29
Clean sheet %59% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D01L01L11D02L11D03L20W21WA·PAI13/07A·TAR20/07A·VII27/07A·ELV03/08H·JK 11/08H·TAL18/08A·FLO21/08A·LAA24/08H·PAI31/08A·FC 15/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.970.671.000.870.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.770.920.670.920.860.93
vs Weaker (4)0.751.250.671.331.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D11D23L11D10W20W00D30W30WA·VII13/07H·FCI20/07A·PAI27/07H·FLO05/08H·VII10/08A·LAA17/08A·FC 20/08H·ELV24/08A·JK 31/08H·TAL14/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.591.210.790.920.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.730.730.890.890.500.50
vs Weaker (12)1.500.421.800.601.290.29
Clean sheet %52% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (25)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAA (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
FLI wins
2
Draws
1
TW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FCI Levadia II vs Tartu Welco · H/A from FLI
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/24ATartu Welco Vs FLI1-1
26/05/24HFLI Vs Tartu Welco2-2
21/04/24ATartu Welco Vs FLI3-2

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/09/24AFC Tallinn Vs FLI1-2
31/08/24HFLI Vs Paide II2-1
24/08/24ALaagri Vs FLI4-0
21/08/24AFlora II Vs FLI4-1
18/08/24HFLI Vs Tallinna Kalev II0-3
11/08/24HFLI Vs JK Tabasalu2-1
03/08/24AElva Vs FLI2-0
27/07/24AViimsi Vs FLI1-1
20/07/24ATartu Welco Vs FLI1-1
13/07/24APaide II Vs FLI3-1

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/24HTW Vs Tallinna Kalev II3-0
31/08/24AJK Tabasalu Vs TW0-4
24/08/24HTW Vs Elva0-0
20/08/24AFC Tallinn Vs TW1-3
17/08/24ALaagri Vs TW1-1
10/08/24HTW Vs Viimsi1-3
05/08/24HTW Vs Flora II3-5
27/07/24APaide II Vs TW1-2
20/07/24HTW Vs FCI Levadia II1-1
13/07/24AViimsi Vs TW2-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWW1.36
HomeWLWLW1.50
AwayDLLLW1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%42%33%
AVG goals3.022.853.21
Over 1.5 %84%81%88%
Over 2.5 %68%73%62%
Over 3.5 %36%27%46%
Scored1.501.651.33
Conceded1.521.191.88
BTTS54%46%62%
Clean Sheet32%42%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWW1.78
HomeDLLDW1.57
AwayWWDWW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%43%54%
AVG goals3.193.143.23
Over 1.5 %81%79%85%
Over 2.5 %59%57%62%
Over 3.5 %41%36%46%
Scored2.041.792.31
Conceded1.151.360.92
BTTS59%50%69%
Clean Sheet30%36%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LaagriLaagri3678
61%
2.2
11042+68
4.2
89%
69%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.11.2
-
2ViimsiViimsi3675
61%
2.1
7542+33
3.2
78%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
3Flora IIFlora II3666
56%
1.8
9655+41
4.2
97%
72%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.5
-
4Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3660
44%
1.7
7044+26
3.2
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
5FC TallinnFC Tallinn3653
42%
1.5
6754+13
3.4
83%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
6ElvaElva3847
32%
1.2
5662-6
3.1
79%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
7FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3644
36%
1.2
6071-11
3.6
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
8Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3642
31%
1.2
7287-15
4.4
94%
86%
72%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.4
-
9Paide IIPaide II3625
19%
0.7
47121-74
4.7
89%
86%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.33.4
-
10JK TabasaluJK Tabasalu3616
11%
0.4
35101-66
3.8
86%
78%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.8
-
11LegionLegion20
0%
0.0
09-9
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.5
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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