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FCI Levadia II vs Tartu Welco Result & Analysis

Date: 29/05/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 3-3
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Vs
29%
25%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FCI Levadia II winâś— Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś“ Hit
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco winâś— Miss
45.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D41W10W32W01L10W02L02L22D03LA·FC 16/03H·TAL29/03A·LUU06/04H·ELV13/04A·TAR20/04A·NĂ•M28/04A·VII03/05H·FLO08/05A·TAL17/05A·NĂ•M25/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.931.751.830.782.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.081.961.701.800.672.07
vs Weaker (5)1.601.802.002.001.331.67
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L31W10W33D10W31W40W10W11D42WA·ELV15/03H·FC 29/03A·NĂ•M06/04A·FLO13/04H·FCI20/04H·VII26/04A·NĂ•M01/05A·LUU11/05H·NĂ•M15/05H·FLO25/05
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.302.121.501.791.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.611.331.801.501.381.12
vs Weaker (12)2.501.252.671.502.331.00
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%5%012%123%222%317%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.8%
Under 1.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.3%
Under 2.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.9%
Under 3.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.6%
No
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
7.2%
0-2
6.8%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
5.5%
1-3
5.4%
FCI Levadia II goals ↓
Tartu Welco goals →
01234
05.5%6.7%6.8%4.0%1.7%
15.0%12%9.3%5.4%2.4%
24.1%7.2%6.3%3.7%1.6%
31.9%3.3%2.9%1.7%0.7%
40.6%1.1%1.0%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCI Levadia II goals (down), columns = Tartu Welco goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Nõmme United
2.56
Viimsi
2.17
Tartu Welco
1.75
Elva
1.61
Flora II
1.33
Nõmme Kalju II
1.25
FCI Levadia II
1.25
FC Tallinn
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
Tallinna Kalev II
0.75
Luunja
0.28
FCI Levadia II is 0.50 points worse than Tartu Welco in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nõmme United
3.47
Viimsi
2.31
Tartu Welco
2.11
Elva
1.72
FCI Levadia II
1.72
Flora II
1.69
FC Tallinn
1.66
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56
Tallinna Kalev II
1.47
Luunja
1.11
Phoenix
1.00
FCI Levadia II is 0.39 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals scored per game (1.72 vs 2.11).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nõmme United
0.75
Viimsi
0.75
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Welco
1.56
Flora II
1.56
Elva
1.64
FCI Levadia II
1.86
FC Tallinn
2.03
Nõmme Kalju II
2.19
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Luunja
3.81
FCI Levadia II is 0.31 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D31W00D30W01L10W02L01L20W01LA·FC 16/03H·TAL29/03A·LUU06/04H·ELV13/04A·TAR20/04A·NĂ•M28/04A·VII03/05H·FLO08/05A·TAL17/05A·NĂ•M25/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.901.080.920.390.89
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.560.961.000.900.271.00
vs Weaker (5)1.200.601.501.001.000.33
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W00D12L10W11D20W00D01L31WA·ELV15/03H·FC 29/03A·NĂ•M06/04A·FLO13/04H·FCI20/04H·VII26/04A·NĂ•M01/05A·LUU11/05H·NĂ•M15/05H·FLO25/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.700.750.750.570.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)0.560.670.700.700.380.62
vs Weaker (12)0.830.750.830.830.830.67
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W10W02L00D00D00D01L02L02LA·FC 16/03H·TAL29/03A·LUU06/04H·ELV13/04A·TAR20/04A·NĂ•M28/04A·VII03/05H·FLO08/05A·TAL17/05A·NĂ•M25/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.030.670.920.391.11
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.521.000.700.900.401.07
vs Weaker (5)0.401.200.501.000.331.33
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L21W10W21W00D20W20W10W10W11DA·ELV15/03H·FC 29/03A·NĂ•M06/04A·FLO13/04H·FCI20/04H·VII26/04A·NĂ•M01/05A·LUU11/05H·NĂ•M15/05H·FLO25/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.601.380.751.210.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (18)1.060.671.100.801.000.50
vs Weaker (12)1.670.501.830.671.500.33
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FCI Levadia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCI Levadia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCI Levadia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.8%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (26)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

đź§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NU (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
FLI wins
2
Draws
2
TW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FCI Levadia II vs Tartu Welco · H/A from FLI
DateH/AGameScore
20/04/25ATartu Welco Vs FLI1-0
19/09/24HFLI Vs Tartu Welco1-0
20/07/24ATartu Welco Vs FLI1-1
26/05/24HFLI Vs Tartu Welco2-2
21/04/24ATartu Welco Vs FLI3-2

FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/05/25ANõmme United Vs FLI3-0
17/05/25ATallinna Kalev II Vs FLI2-2
08/05/25HFLI Vs Flora II0-2
03/05/25AViimsi Vs FLI2-0
28/04/25ANõmme Kalju II Vs FLI0-1
20/04/25ATartu Welco Vs FLI1-0
13/04/25HFLI Vs Elva3-2
06/04/25ALuunja Vs FLI0-1
29/03/25HFLI Vs Tallinna Kalev II4-1
16/03/25AFC Tallinn Vs FLI1-1

Tartu WelcoTartu Welco

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/05/25HTW Vs Flora II4-2
15/05/25HTW Vs Nõmme United1-1
11/05/25ALuunja Vs TW0-1
01/05/25ANõmme Kalju II Vs TW0-4
26/04/25HTW Vs Viimsi3-1
20/04/25HTW Vs FCI Levadia II1-0
13/04/25AFlora II Vs TW3-3
06/04/25ANõmme United Vs TW0-1
29/03/25HTW Vs FC Tallinn3-1
15/03/25AElva Vs TW3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.18
HomeLLWWL1.57
AwayLWLDL0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%48%22%
AVG goals3.383.433.33
Over 1.5 %86%87%85%
Over 2.5 %68%78%59%
Over 3.5 %44%39%48%
Scored1.521.911.19
Conceded1.861.522.15
BTTS64%61%67%
Clean Sheet16%26%7%
Corners---
Cards---
Tartu Welco
Tartu Welco
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW1.81
HomeWWWDW1.76
AwayLWDWW1.87
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%48%52%
AVG goals3.213.403.00
Over 1.5 %77%84%70%
Over 2.5 %56%60%52%
Over 3.5 %46%48%43%
Scored2.002.041.96
Conceded1.211.361.04
BTTS60%64%57%
Clean Sheet31%28%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3692
83%
2.6
12527+98
4.2
92%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1013.50.8
-
2ViimsiViimsi3678
67%
2.2
8327+56
3.1
81%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.8
-
3Tartu WelcoTartu Welco3663
50%
1.8
7656+20
3.7
86%
72%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.6
-
4ElvaElva3658
47%
1.6
6259+3
3.4
86%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
5Flora IIFlora II3648
36%
1.3
6156+5
3.2
83%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
6FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II3645
33%
1.2
6267-5
3.6
89%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
7Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II3645
36%
1.2
5679-23
3.8
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn3842
29%
1.1
6377-14
3.7
89%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
9Tallinna Kalev IITallinna Kalev II3627
14%
0.8
5396-43
4.1
94%
81%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.7
-
10LuunjaLuunja3610
8%
0.3
40137-97
4.9
89%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.8
-
11PhoenixPhoenix22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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