Ferencvarosi TC are tipped to win, with a 54% chance of taking the points against Puskas Academy, while a draw sits at 26% and an away win at 19%. The model expects 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals, a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.5% chance. Ferencvarosi, playing at home against a weaker side, have averaged 2.36 goals scored and only 0.64 conceded, whereas Puskas, on the road to a stronger opponent, have not scored in their last five matches and concede an average of one goal. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 83.5%, Over 1.5 goals at 75.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.9%, and Under 3.5 goals at 72.9%. The match will likely see Ferencvarosi win, with the total goals hovering around two, and the 1-1 scoreline standing out as the most probable outcome.
Results analysis
The upset was clear: Ferencvarosi TC, the pre-match favourite with a 54% chance of victory, fell short and Puskas Academy claimed the win 2-1. The model’s call was wrong. The match delivered on every suggested pick: Over 2.5 cards hit at 83.5%, Over 1.5 at 75.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.9%, and Under 3.5 at 72.9%. Ferencvarosi’s four-game winning streak ended, while Puskas returned from a defeat. The final score of 1-2 confirmed the away team’s triumph, contradicting the model’s 54% home-win probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ferencvarosi TC win✗ Miss
54.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy win✓ Hit
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ferencvarosi TC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.97
2.29
0.79
1.56
1.12
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.33
2.00
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.00
2.00
1.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
2.13
0.78
2.36
0.64
1.92
0.92
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Puskas Academy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.12
1.29
1.08
1.08
1.17
1.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
2.00
4.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.22
1.22
1.00
1.00
1.44
1.44
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
21% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.0%
Under 2.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.1%
Under 3.5
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-0
11.1%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.3%
3-0
5.9%
0-1
5.6%
3-1
5.5%
Ferencvarosi TC goals ↓
Puskas Academy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
5.6%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
1
11%
13%
5.3%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.7%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.9%
5.5%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.5%
2.3%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ferencvarosi TC goals (down), columns = Puskas Academy goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
1.91
Kecskeméti TE
1.73
Debreceni VSC
1.64
Puskas Academy
1.61
Paks
1.48
Kisvarda FC
1.30
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.27
Ujpest
1.24
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.18
Fehérvár FC
1.06
Budapest Honved
1.00
Vasas
0.79
Ferencvarosi TC is 0.30 points better than Puskas Academy in terms of average points per game (1.91 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ferencvarosi TC
1.88
Paks
1.73
Debreceni VSC
1.58
Kecskeméti TE
1.45
Puskas Academy
1.45
Kisvarda FC
1.30
Ujpest
1.27
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.21
Fehérvár FC
1.15
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.12
Budapest Honved
1.03
Vasas
0.88
Ferencvarosi TC is 0.42 goals better than Puskas Academy in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kecskeméti TE
0.97
Ferencvarosi TC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.18
Puskas Academy
1.27
Fehérvár FC
1.30
Vasas
1.30
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.30
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.30
Kisvarda FC
1.48
Budapest Honved
1.55
Ujpest
1.67
Paks
1.73
Ferencvarosi TC is 0.27 goals better than Puskas Academy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.27).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ferencvarosi TC
For 6.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 12.6 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Puskas Academy
For 4.6 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ferencvarosi TC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (37)
9.7
10.4
9.2
3.0
3.3
2.8
25.5
26.8
24.2
vs Stronger (3)
7.3
14.0
4.0
6.3
6.0
6.5
31.0
37.0
28.0
vs Similar (8)
9.8
10.0
9.5
5.2
5.5
5.0
22.5
23.3
21.7
vs Weaker (26)
10.3
10.0
10.7
2.0
2.4
1.5
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
57%
64%
50%
43%
44%
42%
70%
60%
80%
% under line
43%
36%
50%
57%
56%
58%
30%
40%
20%
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Puskas Academy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (24)
9.5
9.4
9.7
2.0
2.2
1.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
8.0
-
8.0
1.5
0.0
3.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
10.0
9.4
11.0
1.9
3.0
0.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
8.5
-
8.5
2.5
0.0
5.0
-
-
-
% over line
45%
40%
50%
25%
25%
25%
-
-
-
% under line
55%
60%
50%
75%
75%
75%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
11.1
Zalaegerszegi TE
10.9
Budapest Honved
10.1
Ferencvarosi TC
9.7
Ujpest
9.7
Puskas Academy
9.5
Mezokovesd-zsory
9.4
Fehérvár FC
9.2
Kisvarda FC
8.8
Debreceni VSC
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ujpest
5.3
Paks
5.2
Fehérvár FC
5.2
Zalaegerszegi TE
4.9
Mezokovesd-zsory
4.9
Ferencvarosi TC
4.9
Puskas Academy
4.8
Budapest Honved
4.6
Debreceni VSC
3.5
Kisvarda FC
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ferencvarosi TC
25.5
Fehérvár FC
15.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.2%
Under 9.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.0%
Under 3.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ferencvarosi TC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.29
0.36
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.75
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
1.13
0.39
1.27
0.27
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Puskas Academy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.46
0.58
0.58
0.58
0.33
0.58
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.61
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
58% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ferencvarosi TC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
1.00
0.43
0.81
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.00
0.39
1.09
0.36
0.92
0.42
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Puskas Academy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.71
0.50
0.50
0.83
0.92
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.61
0.56
0.56
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
46% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ferencvarosi TC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kristoffer Zachariassen38%
Samy Mmaee17%
Tokmac Nguen17%
Adama Malouda Traoré14%
Bálint Vécsei12%
Amer Gojak0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Marquinhos Costa0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Muhamed Bešić0%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Endre Botka0%
Mats Knoester0%
Franck Boli0%
Aissa Laïdouni0%
Henry Wingo0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Lóránd Pászka0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Muhamed Bešić60%
Endre Botka50%
Mats Knoester43%
Aissa Laïdouni40%
Samy Mmaee33%
Eldar Ćivić33%
Adama Malouda Traoré29%
Marquinhos Costa25%
Dénes Dibusz25%
Bálint Vécsei25%
Tokmac Nguen17%
Henry Wingo14%
Kristoffer Zachariassen12%
Amer Gojak0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Franck Boli0%
Lóránd Pászka0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tokmac Nguen33%
Lóránd Pászka25%
Adama Malouda Traoré14%
Henry Wingo14%
Bálint Vécsei12%
Amer Gojak0%
Kristoffer Zachariassen0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Samy Mmaee0%
Marquinhos Costa0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Muhamed Bešić0%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Endre Botka0%
Mats Knoester0%
Franck Boli0%
Aissa Laïdouni0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kristoffer Zachariassen25%
Tokmac Nguen17%
Amer Gojak0%
Adama Malouda Traoré0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Samy Mmaee0%
Marquinhos Costa0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Muhamed Bešić0%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Endre Botka0%
Mats Knoester0%
Franck Boli0%
Aissa Laïdouni0%
Bálint Vécsei0%
Henry Wingo0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Lóránd Pászka0%
Puskas Academy · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lamin Colley50%
Georgiy Harutyunyan40%
Palkó Dárdai20%
Dániel Lukács20%
András Németh20%
Martin Kern20%
Urho Nissilä0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Roland Szolnoki0%
Laros Duarte0%
Brandon Ormonde-Ottewill0%
Wojciech Golla0%
Michael Okeke0%
Bendegúz Lehoczki0%
Roland Orján0%
Zsombor Varga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Roland Orján67%
Martin Kern60%
Lamin Colley50%
Laros Duarte25%
Wojciech Golla20%
András Németh20%
Michael Okeke20%
Zsombor Varga20%
Urho Nissilä0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Palkó Dárdai0%
Dániel Lukács0%
Roland Szolnoki0%
Brandon Ormonde-Ottewill0%
Georgiy Harutyunyan0%
Bendegúz Lehoczki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Urho Nissilä33%
Roland Szolnoki25%
Palkó Dárdai20%
Dániel Lukács20%
András Németh20%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Laros Duarte0%
Brandon Ormonde-Ottewill0%
Wojciech Golla0%
Lamin Colley0%
Michael Okeke0%
Georgiy Harutyunyan0%
Martin Kern0%
Bendegúz Lehoczki0%
Roland Orján0%
Zsombor Varga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lamin Colley25%
Dániel Lukács20%
Urho Nissilä0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Palkó Dárdai0%
Roland Szolnoki0%
Laros Duarte0%
Brandon Ormonde-Ottewill0%
Wojciech Golla0%
András Németh0%
Michael Okeke0%
Georgiy Harutyunyan0%
Martin Kern0%
Bendegúz Lehoczki0%
Roland Orján0%
Zsombor Varga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
KT (22)
€3m
FF (22)
€2m
MEZ (17)
€2m
Ferencvarosi TC's squad is €29m more valuable than Puskas Academy's (€40m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
KT (9)
€1m
BH (6)
€1m
FF (10)
€1m
MEZ (7)
€1m
Ferencvarosi TC's attack is €19m more valuable than Puskas Academy's (€24m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
KT (2)
€0m
FF (3)
€0m
MEZ (1)
€0m
Ferencvarosi TC's midfield is €5m more valuable than Puskas Academy's (€8m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
KT (11)
€1m
FF (9)
€1m
MEZ (9)
€1m
Ferencvarosi TC's defence is €5m more valuable than Puskas Academy's (€9m vs €4m).
Hungary: NB I 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kecskeméti TE
Debreceni VSC
Paks
Kisvarda FC
Mezokovesd-zsory
Ujpest
Zalaegerszegi TE
Fehérvár FC
Budapest Honved
Vasas