Ferencvárosi TC enter the match on a four-game winning streak, having just edged Puskás Academy 2-1, and the model rates a home win as the clear favourite, with a 65% chance. Their home form against weaker opponents is impressive: an average of 2.7 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded. Ujpest, fresh from a 3-1 win over Vasas, shows a solid away record, but the venue advantage and the home side’s recent form tilt the odds heavily toward Ferencváros. The model assigns a 24% chance of a draw and a 12% chance of an away win, so the predicted result is a home victory.
The expected total goals is 2.5, with the most likely total being 2 goals (27% probability). The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Ferencváros, with a 14.4% chance. In terms of match-level picks, the model highlights several selections: Over 2.5 cards at 88.5%, Under 3.5 at 76.2%, Over 3.5 cards at 75.1%, Over 8.5 corners at 72.6%, and Over 1.5 goals at 71.8%. These selections reflect the anticipated high-scoring, card-heavy nature of the fixture.
Results analysis
Ferencváros continued their four-game winning streak, beating Újpest 3-1 in a match that matched the model’s prediction of a home win. The model, which gave the home side a 65% chance, was right, and the final score of 3-1 confirmed the expected outcome. The model’s selection of “Over 2.5 cards” at 88.5% hit, as did “Over 3.5 cards” at 75.1% and “Over 8.5 corners” at 72.6%. “Under 3.5” at 76.2% missed, while “Over 1.5” at 71.8% also hit. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and every listed selection was accounted for.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ferencvarosi TC win✓ Hit
64.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ujpest win✗ Miss
11.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ferencvarosi TC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.07
2.33
0.93
1.87
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (8)
1.50
1.38
1.50
2.00
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (20)
2.40
0.80
2.70
0.50
2.10
1.10
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ujpest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.24
1.76
1.80
1.90
0.43
1.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
6.00
0.00
6.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.43
1.57
2.12
1.50
0.50
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
18% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.8%
Under 1.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.0%
Under 2.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.8%
Under 3.5
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.1%
No
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.4%
2-0
14.0%
1-1
11.0%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
9.1%
3-0
8.6%
3-1 ✓
5.6%
0-1
4.5%
Ferencvarosi TC goals ↓
Ujpest goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
4.5%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
1
14%
11%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
9.1%
3.0%
0.6%
0.1%
3
8.6%
5.6%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
3.9%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ferencvarosi TC goals (down), columns = Ujpest goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
1.91
Kecskeméti TE
1.73
Debreceni VSC
1.64
Puskas Academy
1.61
Paks
1.48
Kisvarda FC
1.30
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.27
Ujpest
1.24
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.18
Fehérvár FC
1.06
Budapest Honved
1.00
Vasas
0.79
Ferencvarosi TC is 0.67 points better than Ujpest in terms of average points per game (1.91 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ferencvarosi TC
1.88
Paks
1.73
Debreceni VSC
1.58
Kecskeméti TE
1.45
Puskas Academy
1.45
Kisvarda FC
1.30
Ujpest
1.27
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.21
Fehérvár FC
1.15
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.12
Budapest Honved
1.03
Vasas
0.88
Ferencvarosi TC is 0.61 goals better than Ujpest in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kecskeméti TE
0.97
Ferencvarosi TC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.18
Puskas Academy
1.27
Fehérvár FC
1.30
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.30
Vasas
1.30
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.30
Kisvarda FC
1.48
Budapest Honved
1.55
Ujpest
1.67
Paks
1.73
Ferencvarosi TC is 0.67 goals better than Ujpest in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ferencvarosi TC
For 5.8 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.1 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ujpest
For 7.4 · Against 3.0 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ferencvarosi TC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (31)
10.2
10.3
10.1
2.9
3.3
2.6
25.2
26.8
23.2
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
14.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
32.5
37.0
28.0
vs Similar (8)
9.8
10.0
9.5
5.2
5.5
5.0
22.5
23.3
21.7
vs Weaker (21)
10.7
9.8
11.4
1.8
2.1
1.5
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
58%
56%
60%
39%
40%
38%
67%
60%
75%
% under line
42%
44%
40%
61%
60%
62%
33%
40%
25%
This opponent (Ujpest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ujpest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (17)
10.4
10.2
10.7
2.5
2.0
3.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
10.7
10.7
10.7
2.8
2.0
3.8
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
9.0
9.0
-
2.0
4.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
57%
50%
67%
35%
30%
43%
-
-
-
% under line
43%
50%
33%
65%
70%
57%
-
-
-
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
13.1
Zalaegerszegi TE
12.0
Ujpest
10.4
Puskas Academy
10.4
Ferencvarosi TC
10.2
Budapest Honved
10.1
Debreceni VSC
10.0
Mezokovesd-zsory
9.8
Fehérvár FC
9.5
Kisvarda FC
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ujpest
6.1
Paks
6.1
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.2
Fehérvár FC
5.2
Ferencvarosi TC
4.8
Puskas Academy
4.7
Mezokovesd-zsory
4.5
Budapest Honved
4.4
Debreceni VSC
4.2
Kisvarda FC
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ferencvarosi TC
25.2
Fehérvár FC
15.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.0%
Under 9.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.1%
Under 3.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ferencvarosi TC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
1.20
0.40
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.62
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.25
0.45
1.40
0.30
1.10
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ujpest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.76
0.70
0.90
0.14
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.75
0.62
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
41% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ferencvarosi TC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.13
0.53
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.75
0.75
1.25
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (20)
1.15
0.35
1.30
0.20
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ujpest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.76
1.00
1.10
1.00
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.93
1.38
0.88
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
41% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferencvarosi TC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferencvarosi TC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ferencvarosi TC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kristoffer Zachariassen38%
Samy Mmaee17%
Tokmac Nguen17%
Adama Malouda Traoré14%
Bálint Vécsei12%
Amer Gojak0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Marquinhos Costa0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Muhamed Bešić0%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Endre Botka0%
Mats Knoester0%
Franck Boli0%
Aissa Laïdouni0%
Henry Wingo0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Lóránd Pászka0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Muhamed Bešić60%
Endre Botka50%
Mats Knoester43%
Aissa Laïdouni40%
Samy Mmaee33%
Eldar Ćivić33%
Adama Malouda Traoré29%
Marquinhos Costa25%
Dénes Dibusz25%
Bálint Vécsei25%
Tokmac Nguen17%
Henry Wingo14%
Kristoffer Zachariassen12%
Amer Gojak0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Franck Boli0%
Lóránd Pászka0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tokmac Nguen33%
Lóránd Pászka25%
Adama Malouda Traoré14%
Henry Wingo14%
Bálint Vécsei12%
Amer Gojak0%
Kristoffer Zachariassen0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Samy Mmaee0%
Marquinhos Costa0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Muhamed Bešić0%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Endre Botka0%
Mats Knoester0%
Franck Boli0%
Aissa Laïdouni0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kristoffer Zachariassen25%
Tokmac Nguen17%
Amer Gojak0%
Adama Malouda Traoré0%
Anderson Esiti0%
Samy Mmaee0%
Marquinhos Costa0%
Ryan Mmaee0%
Muhamed Bešić0%
Dénes Dibusz0%
Endre Botka0%
Mats Knoester0%
Franck Boli0%
Aissa Laïdouni0%
Bálint Vécsei0%
Henry Wingo0%
Eldar Ćivić0%
Lóránd Pászka0%
Ujpest · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Etienne Amenyido75%
A. Matko75%
G. Vlijter50%
Krisztofer Horváth25%
Arne Maier0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
M. Máté0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Máté25%
Arne Maier0%
Etienne Amenyido0%
Krisztofer Horváth0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
A. Matko0%
G. Vlijter0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Etienne Amenyido50%
Krisztofer Horváth25%
A. Matko25%
G. Vlijter25%
Arne Maier0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
M. Máté0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Krisztofer Horváth75%
A. Matko50%
Etienne Amenyido25%
Arne Maier0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
G. Vlijter0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
M. Máté0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
KT (22)
€3m
FF (22)
€2m
MEZ (17)
€2m
Ferencvarosi TC's squad is €26m more valuable than Ujpest's (€40m vs €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
KT (9)
€1m
BH (6)
€1m
FF (10)
€1m
MEZ (7)
€1m
Ferencvarosi TC's attack is €18m more valuable than Ujpest's (€24m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
KT (2)
€0m
FF (3)
€0m
MEZ (1)
€0m
Ferencvarosi TC's midfield is €4m more valuable than Ujpest's (€8m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
KT (11)
€1m
FF (9)
€1m
MEZ (9)
€1m
Ferencvarosi TC's defence is €3m more valuable than Ujpest's (€9m vs €5m).
Hungary: NB I 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kecskeméti TE
Debreceni VSC
Puskas Academy
Paks
Kisvarda FC
Mezokovesd-zsory
Zalaegerszegi TE
Fehérvár FC
Budapest Honved
Vasas