Ferizaj are clear favorites, with the model rating a 73% chance of a home win, 17% for a draw and 10% for 2 Korriku to triumph. The most likely result is a Ferizaj victory, and the single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 2-0, with a 10.3% probability. The expected total goals hover at 3.5, with the most likely total of three goals carrying a 22% chance.
Ferizaj’s home form shows an average of 1.25 goals scored and 1.17 conceded against similarly-matched opponents, while 2 Korriku, on the road, averages 1.67 scored and 2.44 conceded. The venue advantage for Ferizaj, coupled with 2 Korriku’s recent five-game winning streak, underpins the high win probability for the hosts.
The model’s selections are diverse: Away under 3.5 goals98.7%, Under 7.597.4%, Home +2 handicap96.8%, Away under 2.5 goals93.8%, Under 6.593.5%, Home over 0.5 goals92.6%, Home or Draw90.1%, and Home +1 handicap90.1%. These picks reflect the expectation that Ferizaj will control the game, while the low-scoring nature of the encounter keeps the under-goal selections highly probable.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ferizaj win
74.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku win
9.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ferizaj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.47
1.21
1.14
1.12
1.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.83
1.00
1.00
0.75
2.25
vs Similar (24)
1.25
1.38
1.25
1.17
1.25
1.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (2 Korriku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
2 Korriku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.57
1.87
1.00
1.33
2.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
4.00
-
-
0.50
4.00
vs Similar (21)
1.76
1.52
1.83
0.83
1.67
2.44
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
1.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferizaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.3%
Under 1.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.2%
Under 2.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.7%
Under 3.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.4%
3-0
9.2%
2-1
9.1%
3-1
8.0%
1-1
7.5%
1-0
7.2%
4-0
6.1%
4-1
5.3%
Ferizaj goals ↓
2 Korriku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
1.9%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
1
7.2%
7.5%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
2
10%
9.1%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
9.2%
8.0%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
4
6.1%
5.3%
2.3%
0.7%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ferizaj goals (down), columns = 2 Korriku goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Ferizaj is 0.24 points better than 2 Korriku in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
Ferizaj is 0.13 goals worse than 2 Korriku in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
Ferizaj is 0.48 goals better than 2 Korriku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ferizaj or Draw
90.7%
Avg Implied -
74%
16%
9%
covers Ferizaj + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj or 2 Korriku
83.7%
Avg Implied -
74%
16%
9%
covers Ferizaj + 2 Korriku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or 2 Korriku
25.6%
Avg Implied -
74%
16%
9%
covers Draw + 2 Korriku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ferizaj over/under 0.5
Over
92.9%
Under
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 1.5
Over
74.1%
Under
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 2.5
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 3.5
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 0.5
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 1.5
Over
21.7%
Under
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 2.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ferizaj, so a minus line means Ferizaj give that many goals of a start and 2 Korriku receive them. At -1, Ferizaj must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ferizaj win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ferizaj)
Ferizaj -2
32.9%
Draw -2
21.1%
2 Korriku +2
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ferizaj)
Ferizaj -1
53.9%
Draw -1
20.5%
2 Korriku +1
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ferizaj)
Ferizaj +1
90.7%
Draw +1
6.3%
2 Korriku -1
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ferizaj)
Ferizaj +2
97.0%
Draw +2
2.3%
2 Korriku -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ferizaj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.57
0.36
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.54
0.50
0.33
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (2 Korriku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
2 Korriku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.40
0.93
0.20
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.41
1.00
0.08
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.43
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferizaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ferizaj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ferizaj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.64
0.79
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.83
0.75
0.83
0.75
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (2 Korriku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
2 Korriku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.10
0.93
0.80
0.60
1.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (22)
0.77
1.14
0.83
0.75
0.70
1.60
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.57
1.33
1.00
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferizaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ferizaj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
2 Korriku over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →