Ferizaj’s recent 0-1 loss to Trepça’89 has left the hosts looking to rebound, but the model still sees them as the clear favourite, rating a home win at 80%. The probability of a draw sits at 14% while an Istogu victory is only 6%. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to a fairly high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being three goals at 22%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 2-0 for Ferizaj, carrying a 11.9% chance. Ferizaj averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.17 conceded at home against teams of similar strength, whereas Istogu concedes 2.33 away goals on average. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.4%), Home +2 handicap (98.3%), Under 7.5 (97.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (93.9%), Home or Draw (93.8%), Home +1 handicap (93.8%), and Under 6.5 (93.5%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ferizaj win
80.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
14.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Istogu win
5.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ferizaj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.47
1.21
1.14
1.12
1.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.83
1.00
1.00
0.75
2.25
vs Similar (24)
1.25
1.38
1.25
1.17
1.25
1.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istogu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.90
1.80
1.67
1.00
2.13
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
2.25
1.33
2.33
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.58
1.92
2.09
1.55
1.15
2.23
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferizaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.8%
Under 1.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.8%
Under 2.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.9%
Under 3.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.5%
No
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.7%
3-0
11.5%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
8.3%
4-0
7.9%
3-1
7.5%
1-1
6.7%
4-1
5.1%
Ferizaj goals ↓
Istogu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
1
8.7%
6.7%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
2
13%
8.3%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
3
12%
7.5%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
7.9%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ferizaj goals (down), columns = Istogu goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Ferizaj is 0.44 points better than Istogu in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
Ferizaj is 0.02 goals better than Istogu in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
Ferizaj is 0.36 goals better than Istogu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.76).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ferizaj or Draw
94.2%
Avg Implied -
80%
14%
6%
covers Ferizaj + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj or Istogu
86.0%
Avg Implied -
80%
14%
6%
covers Ferizaj + Istogu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Istogu
19.8%
Avg Implied -
80%
14%
6%
covers Draw + Istogu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ferizaj over/under 0.5
Over
93.5%
Under
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 1.5
Over
75.7%
Under
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 2.5
Over
51.4%
Under
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 3.5
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 0.5
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ferizaj, so a minus line means Ferizaj give that many goals of a start and Istogu receive them. At -1, Ferizaj must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ferizaj win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ferizaj)
Ferizaj -2
38.4%
Draw -2
22.0%
Istogu +2
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ferizaj)
Ferizaj -1
60.5%
Draw -1
19.8%
Istogu +1
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ferizaj)
Ferizaj +1
94.2%
Draw +1
4.3%
Istogu -1
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ferizaj)
Ferizaj +2
98.4%
Draw +2
1.3%
Istogu -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ferizaj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.57
0.36
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.54
0.50
0.33
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istogu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.77
0.53
0.73
0.13
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.65
0.55
0.55
0.17
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferizaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.1%
Under 0.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.0%
Under 1.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.2%
Under 2.5
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ferizaj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.1%
Under
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ferizaj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.64
0.79
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.83
0.75
0.83
0.75
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Istogu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Istogu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.03
1.20
0.80
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
1.00
1.13
1.45
0.82
0.58
1.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferizaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.5%
Under 0.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.4%
Under 1.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.1%
Under 2.5
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ferizaj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
30.7%
Under
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.2%
Under
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Istogu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vëllaznimi
Dinamo Ferizaj
Trepça'89
Liria Prizren
Suhareka
2 Korriku
Rilindja 1974
Vjosa
Ramiz Sadiku
Kika
FC Besa Peja
Trepça Mitrovicë
Prishtina e Re
KF Lepenci
Mitrovica
Tefik Canga