Ferizaj vs Trepça'89 Result & Analysis

Ferizaj is the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 63 % chance of a home win, 23 % for a draw and 15 % for a Trepça’89 victory. The prediction of a 2-0 scoreline - the most likely outcome - carries an 11.1 % probability and sits comfortably within the expected total of 2.9 goals, where the most probable total is 2 goals at 24 %. Ferizaj’s home form shows 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded against similar opponents, while Trepça’89, playing away, averages 2.0 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded to comparable teams. The model’s selections reflect a heavy tilt toward a low-scoring affair: Under 7.5 (99 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6 %), Under 6.5 (97.1 %), Home +2 handicap (95 %), Away under 2.5 goals (93.9 %) and Home under 1.5 HT goals (93 %). Ferizaj’s recent draw streak and Trepça’89’s unbeaten run add context, but the venue advantage and the model’s high win probability keep the home side ahead.

The upset came early as Ferizaj failed to convert the pre-match favourite, the home win, which the model had assigned a 63% probability to. The final score was 0-1, an away win that left the model’s pick wrong. The match saw a clean sheet for Trepça'89, who finished unbeaten in their last five, while Ferizaj slipped into a losing streak. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.4%, Under 6.5 at 97.1%, Home +2 handicap at 95.0%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 93.9%, and Away under 2.5 goals at 93.9%. The predicted total of 2.9 goals and the most likely score of 2-0 were both missed.