Feronikeli are tipped to win, with a 60 % chance of taking the match home, while the draw sits at 24 % and the away side 17 %. The model expects 2.9 goals on average, but the most likely total is 2, with a 24 % probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with an 11.3 % chance. Feronikeli’s home form shows they average 2.09 goals scored and only 0.45 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Trepça Mitrovicë, playing away, averages 1.73 goals scored and 1.91 conceded to comparable teams. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.2 % probability. The recent form narrative is clear: Feronikeli, after two straight defeats, have won their last three, while Trepça Mitrovicë, coming off a heavy 0-5 loss, have only one win in five. All figures are presented exactly as the model provides.
Results analysis
The win extends Feronikeli’s recent run, turning a string of two defeats into a triumphant 3-0 triumph over Trepça Mitrovicë. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win, given a 60 % probability, and that call proved correct. The final score of 3-0 confirmed the expected outcome, with the favoured result landing and the selections largely coming in. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at 79.2 %, was hit, reflecting the high-scoring nature of the match. Overall, the prediction model delivered a precise forecast, with the favoured result and the key selection both achieved.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Feronikeli win✓ Hit
59.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë win✗ Miss
16.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Feronikeli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.57
1.93
0.47
1.40
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
0.83
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.75
0.50
2.09
0.45
1.46
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça Mitrovicë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.83
1.40
1.80
1.40
1.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.83
1.33
2.67
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.64
1.77
1.55
1.64
1.73
1.91
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Feronikeli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.2%
Under 1.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.9%
Under 2.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.6%
Under 3.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.3%
No
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.9%
3-0 ✓
6.8%
0-0
6.6%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
4.8%
Feronikeli goals ↓
Trepça Mitrovicë goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
4.3%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
1
9.9%
11%
4.8%
1.5%
0.4%
2
11%
9.9%
4.7%
1.5%
0.3%
3
6.8%
6.4%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.3%
3.1%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Feronikeli goals (down), columns = Trepça Mitrovicë goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vushtrria
2.21
Feronikeli
2.18
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Istogu
0.94
KEK-u
0.64
Prizreni
0.59
Feronikeli is 1.18 points better than Trepça Mitrovicë in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Vushtrria
1.82
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Liria Prizren
1.76
Suhareka
1.76
Feronikeli
1.74
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Vjosa
1.15
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Prizreni
0.82
KEK-u
0.76
Kika
0.74
Feronikeli is 0.29 goals better than Trepça Mitrovicë in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Feronikeli
0.65
Vushtrria
0.76
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Vjosa
1.79
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
KEK-u
1.91
Prizreni
1.94
Feronikeli is 1.18 goals better than Trepça Mitrovicë in terms of goals conceded per game (0.65 vs 1.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Feronikeli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.30
0.71
0.14
0.56
0.44
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.50
0.25
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.17
0.80
0.10
0.54
0.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça Mitrovicë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.61
0.68
0.71
0.71
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
54% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Feronikeli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Feronikeli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Feronikeli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.37
1.14
0.29
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.57
1.00
0.25
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.30
1.20
0.30
0.92
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça Mitrovicë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça Mitrovicë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.82
0.96
0.86
0.79
0.79
1.14
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.05
1.00
0.83
1.10
1.30
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
25% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Feronikeli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Feronikeli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça Mitrovicë over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →