Feyenoord’s strong home form - averaging 2.58 goals scored and conceding only 1.5 - makes them the clear favourite, especially against a weaker opponent at home. The model therefore picks a home win, with a 71% probability for a victory, 17% for a draw and 12% for an away win. The expected total goals hover at 3.7, with the most likely total being 3 goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Feyenoord, carrying a 9% chance. Feyenoord’s home scoring and conceding figures against this tier of opposition are 2.58 and 1.5 respectively, while Excelsior, playing away against a stronger side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Under 7.5 (95.2%), Home +2 handicap (93.9%), Home over 0.5 goals (93.2%), Under 5.5 cards (90.5%), Under 6.5 (89.5%), Over 1.5 (89.5%) and Away under 2.5 goals (86.7%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Feyenoord win
71.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Excelsior win
11.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Feyenoord
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.53
2.27
1.53
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.00
2.50
vs Weaker (25)
2.16
1.44
2.58
1.50
1.77
1.38
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.40
1.33
1.33
1.53
1.47
vs Stronger (10)
1.40
1.70
1.80
1.60
1.00
1.80
vs Similar (20)
1.45
1.25
1.10
1.20
1.80
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.8%
Under 1.5
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.9%
Under 2.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
52.4%
Under 3.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
8.1%
3-0
7.6%
1-1
7.2%
4-1
5.5%
1-0
5.5%
4-0
5.2%
Feyenoord goals ↓
Excelsior goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
1.8%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
1
5.5%
7.2%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
2
8.4%
9.0%
4.8%
1.7%
0.5%
3
7.6%
8.1%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
4
5.2%
5.5%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Feyenoord goals (down), columns = Excelsior goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Feyenoord is 0.79 points better than Excelsior in terms of average points per game (1.91 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Feyenoord is 0.79 goals better than Excelsior in terms of goals scored per game (2.06 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Feyenoord is 0.35 goals better than Excelsior in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.65).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Feyenoord is 5.5 percentage points better than Excelsior in terms of average possession (53% vs 48%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Feyenoord or Draw
83.4%
Avg Implied -
72%
17%
12%
covers Feyenoord + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord or Excelsior
81.2%
Avg Implied -
72%
17%
12%
covers Feyenoord + Excelsior
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Excelsior
35.5%
Avg Implied -
72%
17%
12%
covers Draw + Excelsior
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Feyenoord over/under 0.5
Over
92.4%
Under
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 1.5
Over
72.9%
Under
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 2.5
Over
47.6%
Under
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 3.5
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 0.5
Over
72.4%
Under
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 1.5
Over
36.9%
Under
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 2.5
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Feyenoord, so a minus line means Feyenoord give that many goals of a start and Excelsior receive them. At -1, Feyenoord must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Feyenoord win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Feyenoord)
Feyenoord -2
25.6%
Draw -2
18.7%
Excelsior +2
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Feyenoord)
Feyenoord -1
44.3%
Draw -1
20.3%
Excelsior +1
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Feyenoord)
Feyenoord +1
83.4%
Draw +1
9.8%
Excelsior -1
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Feyenoord)
Feyenoord +2
93.1%
Draw +2
4.7%
Excelsior -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Feyenoord
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
0.93
0.67
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.40
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.08
0.60
1.08
0.58
1.08
0.62
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.60
0.40
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.40
0.60
0.20
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Feyenoord over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Feyenoord
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.33
0.87
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.08
0.84
1.50
0.92
0.69
0.77
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.73
0.93
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
0.90
1.20
0.80
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.85
0.50
1.00
0.90
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Feyenoord) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Feyenoord over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feyenoord over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Feyenoord
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ayase Ueda75%
Luciano Valente50%
Gjivai Zechiël50%
Anis Hadj Moussa25%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Oussama Targhalline0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Gaoussou Diarra0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Charles Vanhoutte25%
Anis Hadj Moussa25%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Ayase Ueda0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Oussama Targhalline0%
Luciano Valente0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Gjivai Zechiël0%
Gaoussou Diarra0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oussama Targhalline33%
Ayase Ueda25%
Anis Hadj Moussa25%
Gjivai Zechiël25%
Gaoussou Diarra25%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Luciano Valente0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ayase Ueda75%
Anis Hadj Moussa50%
Gaoussou Diarra50%
Luciano Valente25%
Gjivai Zechiël25%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Tsuyoshi Watanabe0%
Jeremiah St Juste0%
Mika Mármol0%
Tjark Ernst0%
Oussama Targhalline0%
Nacho Ferri0%
Givairo Read0%
Thijs Kraaijeveld0%
Shaqueel van Persie0%
Excelsior
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Casper Widell33%
David Garden33%
Irakli Yegoian33%
Nesto Groen33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Jan Plug0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simon Janssen33%
Jan Plug33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Irakli Yegoian67%
Simon Janssen33%
Ilano Silva Timas33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Jan Plug0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
David Garden33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Jan Plug0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Feyenoord's squad is €213m more valuable than Excelsior's (€229m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Feyenoord's attack is €85m more valuable than Excelsior's (€93m vs €7m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Feyenoord's midfield is €40m more valuable than Excelsior's (€43m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Feyenoord's defence is €87m more valuable than Excelsior's (€93m vs €6m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →