FH hafnarfjordur are tipped to win, the model’s favourite result, with a 45 % chance of a home victory, a 25 % chance of a draw and a 30 % chance of a Breidablik win. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, but the most likely total is 2, with a 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.6 % chance, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest.
FH’s home form shows they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded against stronger opposition, while Breidablik’s away record is 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded against weaker sides. This suggests FH will dominate the attack and limit Breidablik’s chances.
The model’s selection is Over 1.5, with an 83.2 % probability. No other picks are listed. The final result of the previous match was a 0-0 draw, but FH are coming off a 1-1 draw against IA Akranes, whereas Breidablik are entering after a 3-4 loss to Fram Reykjavik.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, FH hafnarfjordur, failed to deliver as the game ended 0-0, a draw that left the model’s home-win call wrong. The match, played at FH’s home ground, saw the team come off a draw in their last outing, while Breidablik returned from a defeat. The model had given FH a 45 % chance of victory, yet the result was a stalemate. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals with an 83.2 % probability, missed, as no goals were scored. The expected total of 3.1 goals and the most likely 2-goal outcome were not realised, confirming the surprising outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FH hafnarfjordur win✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Breidablik win✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FH hafnarfjordur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.60
1.93
0.93
1.94
2.19
vs Stronger (11)
1.91
1.82
2.00
0.60
1.83
2.83
vs Similar (19)
1.95
1.47
1.89
1.11
2.00
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Breidablik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.67
1.86
1.43
1.50
1.88
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
1.50
2.00
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.87
1.40
1.71
0.86
2.00
1.88
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
1.90
2.20
2.00
1.20
1.80
Clean sheet %
13% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.2%
Under 1.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.8%
Under 2.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.5%
Under 3.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.1%
No
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.3%
2-0
6.6%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
3-1
5.4%
0-0 ✓
5.4%
FH hafnarfjordur goals ↓
Breidablik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
4.9%
4.2%
1.9%
0.7%
1
6.5%
12%
7.3%
3.4%
1.2%
2
6.6%
9.2%
6.4%
3.0%
1.0%
3
3.9%
5.4%
3.7%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.7%
2.4%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FH hafnarfjordur goals (down), columns = Breidablik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.33
Fram Reykjavik
2.12
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.83
Keflavik
1.62
IA Akranes
1.57
Stjarnan
1.50
FH hafnarfjordur
1.43
Breidablik
1.14
Thor Akureyri
1.00
KA Akureyri
0.86
Valur Reykjavik
0.67
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.29
FH hafnarfjordur is 0.29 points better than Breidablik in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
4.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.67
Fram Reykjavik
2.62
IA Akranes
2.43
Valur Reykjavik
1.83
Keflavik
1.75
KA Akureyri
1.71
Stjarnan
1.67
Breidablik
1.43
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.14
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.86
FH hafnarfjordur is 0.43 goals worse than Breidablik in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.86
Keflavik
1.38
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.50
Breidablik
1.71
Fram Reykjavik
1.75
KR Reykjavik
1.83
IA Akranes
1.86
Thor Akureyri
2.14
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.29
KA Akureyri
2.43
Valur Reykjavik
2.50
Stjarnan
2.83
FH hafnarfjordur is 0.86 goals better than Breidablik in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FH hafnarfjordur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.64
0.43
0.94
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
0.91
0.80
0.20
0.67
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.63
0.56
0.56
1.10
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Breidablik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.71
0.79
0.69
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.87
0.57
0.57
0.75
1.12
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.00
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FH hafnarfjordur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.87
1.29
0.50
1.00
1.19
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
0.91
1.20
0.40
1.17
1.33
vs Similar (19)
1.11
0.84
1.33
0.56
0.90
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Breidablik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.14
0.64
0.81
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.53
1.14
0.29
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
1.00
1.20
1.00
0.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Fram Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
Keflavik
Vikingur Reykjavik
IA Akranes
Stjarnan
Thor Akureyri
KA Akureyri
Valur Reykjavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar