FH hafnarfjordur and Vikingur Reykjavik are locked in a finely balanced showdown, with the away side boasting a slight edge following a recent draw against IBV Vestmannaeyjar. The away side's last five results show a draw, a loss, a draw, a loss, and a win, with the last score being a 2-2 draw. Meanwhile, FH hafnarfjordur has been unbeaten in their last five, with a win, a draw, a draw, a draw, and a win, securing a 1-0 victory over KA Akureyri.
The model predicts an away win, with a 41% chance of success, and a 32% chance of FH hafnarfjordur taking the win. A draw is also possible, with a 27% probability. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% chance.
FH hafnarfjordur has a strong home form, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding 0.4 goals against stronger opponents. Vikingur Reykjavik, on the other hand, has a decent away form, scoring 2 goals and conceding 1.08 goals against weaker opponents. The model suggests "Over 1.5" as its selection, with a 79.7% probability.
Results analysis
The away team's recent form storyline continues, as they extend their run of wins. The final score was 2-4 in favour of the away team, resulting in an away win. The model's selection, the away win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 41%. The model's call was spot on, as the away team secured the win.
The model's selection of the away win was a solid choice, as the away team's recent form suggested they were on a roll. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 79.6%. The model's selection of the away win was the favourite, and it paid off.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FH hafnarfjordur win✗ Miss
31.8%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.08
Edge
+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.80
Dafabet
4.30
Pinnacle
4.27
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.18
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.07
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.31
Marathonbet
4.20
Dafabet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Bet365
4.20
Vikingur Reykjavik win✓ Hit
41.2%
Avg Implied 55.4% · @ 1.64
Edge
-14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Dafabet
1.67
888Sport
1.67
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FH hafnarfjordur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.50
1.64
1.00
1.75
1.94
vs Stronger (11)
1.45
1.64
1.20
0.80
1.67
2.33
vs Similar (18)
1.89
1.39
1.89
1.11
1.89
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.37
2.33
1.00
1.73
1.73
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (11)
1.45
2.00
2.20
1.80
0.83
2.17
vs Weaker (17)
2.47
0.88
2.33
0.67
2.62
1.12
Clean sheet %
30% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
@ 1.10-3.5%
Under 1.5
20.4%
@ 5.40+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
Under
Betfair
6.50
Pinnacle
5.97
Bet365
5.50
888Sport
5.50
1xBet
5.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.2%
@ 1.39-10.4%
Under 2.5
44.8%
@ 2.65+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
888Sport
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.80
10Bet
2.75
Betano
2.67
Unibet
2.63
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.9%
@ 2.02-12.8%
Under 3.5
67.1%
@ 1.70+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.19
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathonbet
2.05
888Sport
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Betfair
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.4%
@ 1.44-4.1%
No
40.6%
@ 2.50+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
William Hil
1.44
No
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.55
Betano
2.55
William Hil
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 8.28+7.2%
1-2
8.9%@ 7.71+3.0%
2-1
7.7%@ 12.75+4.2%
0-1
7.4%@ 10.62+3.2%
0-0
6.7%@ 18.41+4.2%
0-2
6.7%@ 10.15+2.2%
1-0
6.3%@ 17.63+3.7%
2-2
6.0%@ 11.48+2.0%
FH hafnarfjordur goals ↓
Vikingur Reykjavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
7.4%
6.7%
3.4%
1.3%
1
6.3%
13%
8.9%
4.6%
1.8%
2
5.0%
7.7%
6.0%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.2%
3.5%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
4
0.7%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FH hafnarfjordur goals (down), columns = Vikingur Reykjavik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.33
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.83
FH hafnarfjordur
1.62
IA Akranes
1.57
Stjarnan
1.50
Keflavik
1.44
Thor Akureyri
1.25
Breidablik
1.14
KA Akureyri
0.88
Valur Reykjavik
0.67
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.25
FH hafnarfjordur is 0.21 points worse than Vikingur Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
4.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.67
Fram Reykjavik
2.56
IA Akranes
2.43
Valur Reykjavik
1.83
KA Akureyri
1.75
Stjarnan
1.67
Keflavik
1.67
Breidablik
1.43
FH hafnarfjordur
1.12
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.88
FH hafnarfjordur is 1.54 goals worse than Vikingur Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.88
Keflavik
1.44
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.50
Breidablik
1.71
Fram Reykjavik
1.78
KR Reykjavik
1.83
IA Akranes
1.86
Thor Akureyri
1.88
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.12
KA Akureyri
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
2.50
Stjarnan
2.83
FH hafnarfjordur is 0.62 goals better than Vikingur Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FH hafnarfjordur or Draw✗ Miss
58.8%
Avg Implied 43.7% · @ 2.11
Edge
+15.1%
32%
27%
41%
covers FH hafnarfjordur + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.17
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
FH hafnarfjordur or Vikingur Reykjavik✓ Hit
73.0%
Avg Implied 78.8% · @ 1.17
Edge
-5.7%
32%
27%
41%
covers FH hafnarfjordur + Vikingur Reykjavik
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Draw or Vikingur Reykjavik✓ Hit
68.2%
Avg Implied 77.5% · @ 1.19
Edge
-9.4%
32%
27%
41%
covers Draw + Vikingur Reykjavik
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
888Sport
1.22
William Hil
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FH hafnarfjordur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.43
0.50
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.82
0.20
0.40
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.61
0.56
0.56
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.87
0.47
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.91
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.29
0.78
0.22
1.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
57% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FH hafnarfjordur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.80
1.21
0.50
0.94
1.06
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
0.82
1.00
0.40
1.17
1.17
vs Similar (18)
1.11
0.78
1.33
0.56
0.89
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.83
1.47
0.53
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
1.09
1.20
0.80
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (17)
1.59
0.59
1.56
0.44
1.62
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FH hafnarfjordur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FH hafnarfjordur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.6%
1.10
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
-3.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.0%
1.17
888Sport
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
-5.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Vikingur Reykjavik · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ari Sigurpálsson38%
Gunnar Vatnhamar25%
Matthías Vilhjálmsson20%
Karl Friðleifur Gunnarsson14%
Nikolaj Hansen14%
Danijel Dejan Djuric14%
Davíð Örn Atlason12%
Jón Guðni Fjóluson0%
Ingvar Jónsson0%
Valdimar Þór Ingimundarson0%
Viktor Örlygur Andrason0%
Erlingur Agnarsson0%
Oliver Ekroth0%
Aron Elís Þrándarson0%
Helgi Guðjónsson0%
Tarik Ibrahimagić0%
Sveinn Gísli Þorkelsson0%
Gísli Thórdarson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nikolaj Hansen57%
Davíð Örn Atlason38%
Tarik Ibrahimagić38%
Oliver Ekroth29%
Matthías Vilhjálmsson20%
Valdimar Þór Ingimundarson17%
Karl Friðleifur Gunnarsson14%
Aron Elís Þrándarson14%
Danijel Dejan Djuric14%
Ari Sigurpálsson12%
Jón Guðni Fjóluson0%
Ingvar Jónsson0%
Viktor Örlygur Andrason0%
Erlingur Agnarsson0%
Helgi Guðjónsson0%
Gunnar Vatnhamar0%
Sveinn Gísli Þorkelsson0%
Gísli Thórdarson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Erlingur Agnarsson33%
Valdimar Þór Ingimundarson17%
Gísli Thórdarson17%
Karl Friðleifur Gunnarsson14%
Danijel Dejan Djuric14%
Jón Guðni Fjóluson0%
Ingvar Jónsson0%
Viktor Örlygur Andrason0%
Davíð Örn Atlason0%
Nikolaj Hansen0%
Matthías Vilhjálmsson0%
Oliver Ekroth0%
Aron Elís Þrándarson0%
Helgi Guðjónsson0%
Ari Sigurpálsson0%
Gunnar Vatnhamar0%
Tarik Ibrahimagić0%
Sveinn Gísli Þorkelsson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gísli Thórdarson17%
Nikolaj Hansen14%
Danijel Dejan Djuric14%
Jón Guðni Fjóluson0%
Ingvar Jónsson0%
Valdimar Þór Ingimundarson0%
Karl Friðleifur Gunnarsson0%
Viktor Örlygur Andrason0%
Erlingur Agnarsson0%
Davíð Örn Atlason0%
Matthías Vilhjálmsson0%
Oliver Ekroth0%
Aron Elís Þrándarson0%
Helgi Guðjónsson0%
Ari Sigurpálsson0%
Gunnar Vatnhamar0%
Tarik Ibrahimagić0%
Sveinn Gísli Þorkelsson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
FH hafnarfjordur's squad is €4m less valuable than Vikingur Reykjavik's (€2m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
FH hafnarfjordur's attack is €2m less valuable than Vikingur Reykjavik's (€0m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FH hafnarfjordur and Vikingur Reykjavik have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
FH hafnarfjordur and Vikingur Reykjavik have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
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Fram Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
Keflavik
IA Akranes
Thor Akureyri
Stjarnan
Breidablik
KA Akureyri
Valur Reykjavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar