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Finn Harps vs Cobh Ramblers Result & Analysis

Date: 14/07/2023
Time: 19:00
Final 4-3
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Vs
31%
30%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Cobh Ramblers
Cobh Ramblers
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Finn Harps and Cobh Ramblers is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home victory is 31%, a draw 30% and an away triumph 39%. The expected goal tally hovers at 2.4, with the most probable total being two goals at a 27% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 14.3% probability. Finn Harps, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average one goal scored and 1.17 conceded. Cobh Ramblers, on the road, average 2.17 goals scored and one conceded against comparable teams. Suggested selections include Under 3.5 with a 77.8% chance and Over 1.5 with a 70.5% chance. The match remains a tight affair, with the away side’s recent draw and the home side’s five-match losing streak adding intrigue.

Results analysis

The upset came early: Finn Harps snatched a 4-3 win after five straight defeats, extending their winless streak into a dramatic home victory. The pre-match favourite was Cobh Ramblers, the model’s pick for an away win with a 39% chance, but that call was wrong. The model’s other selections were mixed: the Under 3.5 goal market, with a 77.8% probability, missed as the match produced seven goals; the Over 1.5, at 70.5%, hit as expected. The final score of 4-3 confirmed the home side’s triumph, leaving the model’s prediction on the losing side.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Finn Harps win✓ Hit
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers win✗ Miss
38.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-614L02L04L30W00D06L32W01L16L00DA·COB05/05A·BRA12/05H·WAT19/05A·TRE26/05H·KER02/06A·GAL05/06A·LON09/06H·WEX23/06A·WAT30/06H·BRA07/07
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.200.731.531.072.87
vs Stronger (19)0.792.580.561.781.003.30
vs Similar (11)1.091.551.001.171.202.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cobh Ramblers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-541W05L22D22D12L10W10W10W32W11DH·FIN05/05A·WAT12/05H·ATH19/05A·BRA26/05A·WEX02/06H·LON05/06A·TRE09/06H·WAT23/06A·ATH30/06H·GAL07/07
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.531.601.531.471.53
vs Stronger (15)0.931.801.111.560.672.17
vs Similar (9)2.221.002.331.002.171.00
vs Weaker (6)2.001.672.332.001.671.33
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.5%
Under 1.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.1%
Under 2.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.2%
Under 3.5
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.4%
0-1
10.3%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.3%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
5.7%
Finn Harps goals ↓
Cobh Ramblers goals →
01234
010%10%7.4%3.2%1.0%
18.9%14%8.3%3.5%1.1%
25.7%7.3%4.7%2.0%0.6%
32.1%2.7%1.7%0.7%0.2%
40.6%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Finn Harps goals (down), columns = Cobh Ramblers goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Galway United
2.61
Waterford
1.90
Cobh Ramblers
1.64
Wexford
1.42
Athlone Town
1.26
Treaty United
1.22
Bray Wanderers
1.22
Longford Town
1.11
Finn Harps
1.03
Kerry
0.28
Finn Harps is 0.61 points worse than Cobh Ramblers in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.64).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Galway United
2.72
Waterford
2.28
Cobh Ramblers
1.64
Athlone Town
1.50
Treaty United
1.36
Bray Wanderers
1.33
Wexford
1.29
Longford Town
1.08
Finn Harps
1.08
Kerry
0.81
Finn Harps is 0.56 goals worse than Cobh Ramblers in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.64).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Galway United
0.50
Waterford
0.90
Wexford
1.34
Cobh Ramblers
1.36
Longford Town
1.42
Treaty United
1.69
Athlone Town
1.71
Bray Wanderers
1.72
Finn Harps
2.06
Kerry
2.53
Finn Harps is 0.70 goals worse than Cobh Ramblers in terms of goals conceded per game (2.06 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L02L20W00D04L01L00D13L00DA·COB05/05A·BRA12/05H·WAT19/05A·TRE26/05H·KER02/06A·GAL05/06A·LON09/06H·WEX23/06A·WAT30/06H·BRA07/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.030.470.670.331.40
vs Stronger (19)0.211.260.330.780.101.70
vs Similar (11)0.730.640.670.500.800.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cobh Ramblers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W02L21W11D01L00D00D00D11D11DH·FIN05/05A·WAT12/05H·ATH19/05A·BRA26/05A·WEX02/06H·LON05/06A·TRE09/06H·WAT23/06A·ATH30/06H·GAL07/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.730.730.270.60
vs Stronger (15)0.200.670.330.670.000.67
vs Similar (9)0.670.671.330.670.330.67
vs Weaker (6)1.000.671.331.000.670.33
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L02L10W00D02L31W01L03L00DA·COB05/05A·BRA12/05H·WAT19/05A·TRE26/05H·KER02/06A·GAL05/06A·LON09/06H·WEX23/06A·WAT30/06H·BRA07/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.170.270.870.731.47
vs Stronger (19)0.581.320.221.000.901.60
vs Similar (11)0.360.910.330.670.401.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Cobh Ramblers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W03L01L11D11D10W10W10W21W00DH·FIN05/05A·WAT12/05H·ATH19/05A·BRA26/05A·WEX02/06H·LON05/06A·TRE09/06H·WAT23/06A·ATH30/06H·GAL07/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.870.870.801.200.93
vs Stronger (15)0.731.130.780.890.671.50
vs Similar (9)1.560.331.000.331.830.33
vs Weaker (6)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.8%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.570.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Finn Harps and Cobh Ramblers have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WAT (6)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
TU (1)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Finn Harps and Cobh Ramblers have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Finn Harps and Cobh Ramblers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CR (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Finn Harps and Cobh Ramblers have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
FH wins
1
Draws
1
CR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Finn Harps vs Cobh Ramblers · H/A from FH
DateH/AGameScore
05/05/23ACobh Ramblers Vs FH4-1
24/03/23HFH Vs Cobh Ramblers2-2

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/07/23HFH Vs Bray Wanderers0-0
30/06/23AWaterford Vs FH6-1
23/06/23HFH Vs Wexford0-1
09/06/23ALongford Town Vs FH2-3
05/06/23AGalway United Vs FH6-0
02/06/23HFH Vs Kerry0-0
26/05/23ATreaty United Vs FH0-3
19/05/23HFH Vs Waterford0-4
12/05/23ABray Wanderers Vs FH2-0
05/05/23ACobh Ramblers Vs FH4-1

Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/07/23HCR Vs Galway United1-1
30/06/23AAthlone Town Vs CR2-3
23/06/23HCR Vs Waterford1-0
09/06/23ATreaty United Vs CR0-1
05/06/23HCR Vs Longford Town1-0
02/06/23AWexford Vs CR2-1
26/05/23ABray Wanderers Vs CR2-2
19/05/23HCR Vs Athlone Town2-2
12/05/23AWaterford Vs CR5-0
05/05/23HCR Vs Finn Harps4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD0.72
HomeLLDLD0.80
AwayLWLWL0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%16%16%
AVG goals3.002.283.72
Over 1.5 %78%64%92%
Over 2.5 %60%44%76%
Over 3.5 %38%24%52%
Scored0.940.881.00
Conceded2.061.402.72
BTTS54%48%60%
Clean Sheet18%24%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Cobh Ramblers
Cobh Ramblers
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWD0.98
HomeWDWWD1.12
AwayLDLWW0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%32%20%
AVG goals3.303.443.16
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %62%68%56%
Over 3.5 %48%52%44%
Scored1.301.361.24
Conceded2.002.081.92
BTTS56%64%48%
Clean Sheet12%8%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Galway UnitedGalway United3694
83%
2.6
9818+80
3.2
75%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.70.5
-
2WaterfordWaterford3974
54%
1.9
8935+54
3.2
77%
59%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.30.9
-
3Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers3964
44%
1.6
6453+11
3.0
77%
51%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.4
-
4WexfordWexford3854
39%
1.4
4951-2
2.6
79%
53%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
5Athlone TownAthlone Town3848
37%
1.3
5765-8
3.2
76%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
6Treaty UnitedTreaty United3644
33%
1.2
4961-12
3.1
83%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
7Bray WanderersBray Wanderers3644
28%
1.2
4862-14
3.1
83%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8Longford TownLongford Town3640
28%
1.1
3951-12
2.5
64%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
9Finn HarpsFinn Harps3637
25%
1.0
3974-35
3.1
75%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.1
-
10KerryKerry3610
3%
0.3
2991-62
3.3
83%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.5
-
Ireland: First Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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