This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.03
1.38
1.19
1.43
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.08
1.00
1.00
1.14
1.20
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
1.61
1.06
1.67
1.22
1.56
0.89
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.6%
Under 1.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.8%
Under 2.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.4%
No
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
0-1 â
12.4%
0-2
11.3%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
9.3%
0-3
6.3%
1-0
5.7%
1-3
5.3%
Fiorentino goals ↓
Cosmos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
12%
11%
6.3%
2.6%
1
5.7%
13%
9.5%
5.3%
2.2%
2
2.9%
4.8%
4.0%
2.2%
0.9%
3
0.8%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fiorentino goals (down), columns = Cosmos goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Fiorentino is 0.11 points better than Cosmos in terms of average points per game (1.53 vs 1.42).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Fiorentino is 0.25 goals better than Cosmos in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.00).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Fiorentino is 0.71 goals worse than Cosmos in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 0.70).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Fiorentino is 4.0 percentage points better than Cosmos in terms of average possession (40% vs 36%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Fiorentino
For 3.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 10.0
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 4.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 19.0 · Against 15.0 · Total 34.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cosmos
For 1.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 6.0
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 5.0 · Against 0.0 · Total 5.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 14.0 · Total 30.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fiorentino
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
-
10.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
34.0
-
34.0
vs Stronger (15)
10.0
-
10.0
0.3
0.0
0.5
34.0
-
34.0
vs Similar (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
-
100%
2%
0%
4%
100%
-
100%
% under line
0%
-
0%
98%
100%
96%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.0
6.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
30.0
30.0
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
6.0
6.0
-
0.2
0.5
0.0
30.0
30.0
-
vs Weaker (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
2%
4%
0%
100%
100%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
98%
96%
100%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Fiorentino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Fiori
8.4
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
6.8
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Tre Fiori
30.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
20.9%
Under 9.5
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.2%
Under 3.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.4%
Under 21.5
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fiorentino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.80
0.36
0.43
0.25
1.12
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.73
0.50
0.17
0.33
1.11
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.50
0.62
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.58
0.43
0.57
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.61
0.44
0.56
0.67
0.67
0.22
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fiorentino over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fiorentino
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.36
1.07
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.09
0.17
1.50
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.60
0.33
1.00
0.78
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
0.88
0.56
0.86
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.42
0.57
0.57
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.61
1.11
0.56
0.89
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fiorentino over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Fiorentino and Cosmos have a similar squad value (both €0m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Fiorentino and Cosmos have a similar attack value (both €0m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Fiorentino and Cosmos have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Fiorentino and Cosmos have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Virtus
Tre Penne
Tre Fiori
La Fiorita
Folgore
Domagnano
Juvenes / Dogana
Libertas
Pennarossa
San Giovanni
Faetano
San Marino Academy
Cailungo
Murata