The model picks an away win for Tre Fiori, a result that carries a 51% probability, with a 29% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of a Fiorentino victory. The expected total goals hover around 2.3, with the most likely total being two goals at a 28% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, occurring with a 13.4% chance. Fiorentino, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.67 goals scored and concedes 2.83, while Tre Fiori, on the road against a weaker side, scores 2.44 and concedes only 0.33. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 5.5 (96.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (94.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.6%), Away +2 handicap (93.1%) and Under 4.5 (91.1%). Fiorentino’s recent form shows a win after a win-streak, while Tre Fiori is coming off three straight defeats.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fiorentino win
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori win
50.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fiorentino
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.50
0.93
1.86
1.62
1.19
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
2.44
0.80
3.20
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (15)
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.43
1.62
1.25
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
0.50
1.00
0.00
3.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
30% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.87
2.25
1.00
2.00
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.38
1.62
1.38
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (17)
2.65
0.47
2.88
0.62
2.44
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.5%
Under 1.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.7%
Under 2.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.5%
Under 3.5
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.4%
No
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
13.6%
1-1
13.6%
0-0
11.5%
0-2
10.7%
1-2
8.9%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
5.1%
0-3
5.1%
Fiorentino goals ↓
Tre Fiori goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
14%
11%
5.1%
1.8%
1
7.3%
14%
8.9%
4.3%
1.5%
2
3.6%
5.1%
3.7%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.0%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fiorentino goals (down), columns = Tre Fiori goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.00
Murata
1.75
Virtus
1.75
San Giovanni
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Penne
1.25
Cailungo
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Fiorentino
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Libertas
0.50
Fiorentino is 1.50 points worse than Tre Fiori in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Fiori
1.86
Tre Penne
1.50
Virtus
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.33
Murata
1.25
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Fiorentino
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Libertas
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Folgore
0.00
Fiorentino is 0.86 goals worse than Tre Fiori in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Folgore
0.50
Virtus
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
0.83
Tre Penne
1.00
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Murata
1.25
Faetano
1.50
Pennarossa
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cosmos
2.25
Fiorentino
2.50
Domagnano
2.50
Fiorentino is 1.79 goals worse than Tre Fiori in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fiorentino or Draw
49.8%
Avg Implied -
20%
29%
50%
covers Fiorentino + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino or Tre Fiori
70.6%
Avg Implied -
20%
29%
50%
covers Fiorentino + Tre Fiori
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tre Fiori
79.5%
Avg Implied -
20%
29%
50%
covers Draw + Tre Fiori
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fiorentino over/under 0.5
Over
56.5%
Under
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 1.5
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 2.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5
Over
76.3%
Under
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5
Over
42.2%
Under
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fiorentino, so a minus line means Fiorentino give that many goals of a start and Tre Fiori receive them. At -1, Fiorentino must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fiorentino win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fiorentino)
Fiorentino -2
1.6%
Draw -2
5.2%
Tre Fiori +2
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fiorentino)
Fiorentino -1
6.9%
Draw -1
13.6%
Tre Fiori +1
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Fiorentino)
Fiorentino +1
49.8%
Draw +1
24.5%
Tre Fiori -1
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Fiorentino)
Fiorentino +2
74.3%
Draw +2
15.7%
Tre Fiori -2
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fiorentino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.43
0.86
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.89
0.60
1.40
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.80
0.43
0.71
1.00
0.88
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.37
1.12
0.31
1.14
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.54
1.12
0.38
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (17)
1.24
0.24
1.12
0.25
1.33
0.22
Clean sheet %
70% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fiorentino over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fiorentino
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.50
1.00
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.56
0.20
1.80
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.53
0.57
0.71
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Fiori) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Fiori
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.12
0.69
0.86
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.85
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
0.24
1.75
0.38
1.11
0.11
Clean sheet %
67% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fiorentino over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentino over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Fiori over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Fiorentino's squad is €1m less valuable than Tre Fiori's (€0m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Fiorentino and Tre Fiori have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Fiorentino and Tre Fiori have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Fiorentino and Tre Fiori have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →