First Vienna vs Rapid Wien II Result & Analysis

First Vienna are the clear favourite, with a 65% chance of winning, 21% for a draw and 14% for Rapid Wien II to take the victory. The model picks a home win as the most likely outcome, reflecting First Vienna’s solid 1.57 goals scored and only 0.43 conceded at home against teams of similar strength, while Rapid Wien II average 1.67 goals but concedes 2.33 away. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for First Vienna with a 10.1% probability. The match is expected to produce about three goals, with a 22% chance of exactly three. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 84%, Over 19.5 fouls at 82.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 79.8%, Over 8.5 corners at 78% and Under 5.5 cards at 74.3%. First Vienna’s recent two-game winning streak and Rapid Wien II’s recovery from two defeats set the stage for a competitive contest.

The upset came early: a 2-2 draw ended First Vienna’s two-game winning run and left Rapid Wien II’s recent form, after two straight defeats, unchanged. The pre-match favourite was a home win at 65 percent, but the model’s call was wrong. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, with an 84 percent probability, and that hit. The match finished 2-2, a draw that matched the model’s 21 percent draw probability. The most likely scoreline was 2-0, but the game settled at 2-2, and the total of 4 goals exceeded the expected 3.2. The model’s predictions were mixed, with the favourite missed and the over goal pick succeeding.