First Vienna’s recent five games show a mixed bag, yet a two-game winning streak keeps the home side’s confidence high. Rapid Wien II, after two straight defeats, will look to reverse that trend away from home. The model favours an away win, with a 38% chance, a 25% chance of a draw and a 37% chance of a home victory. The expected total is 3.3 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.9%. First Vienna averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.58 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Rapid Wien II nets 1.64 and concedes 2.0 on the road. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 88.8%, Over 1.5 goals at 85.4% (hit), Over 19.5 fouls at 80.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 75.7% and Under 11.5 corners at 74.8%. These picks reflect a high-scoring, card-heavy encounter.
Results analysis
The upset came early as First Vienna snatched a 2-0 win, ending their two-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Rapid Wien II, had a 38% chance of victory, but the model’s pick was wrong. The model’s selection of an over 1.5 total goals hit, with an 85.4% probability, and the match delivered exactly 2 goals, matching the most likely total of 3. The final score of 2-0 confirmed a home win, contradicting the model’s expectation of an away triumph. The game showed how a strong home form can overturn projected odds.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
First Vienna win✓ Hit
37.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rapid Wien II win✗ Miss
37.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
First Vienna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.33
1.36
1.43
1.38
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.41
1.33
1.58
1.27
1.27
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid Wien II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rapid Wien II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.90
1.12
1.81
1.64
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.39
1.86
1.14
1.71
1.64
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (First Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.5%
Under 2.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.5%
Under 3.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.6%
No
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
6.9%
0-1
5.0%
0-2
5.0%
1-0
5.0%
2-0 ✓
4.9%
First Vienna goals ↓
Rapid Wien II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
5.0%
5.0%
2.8%
1.2%
1
5.0%
11%
8.3%
4.6%
1.9%
2
4.9%
8.2%
6.9%
3.8%
1.6%
3
2.7%
4.6%
3.8%
2.1%
0.9%
4
1.1%
1.9%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = First Vienna goals (down), columns = Rapid Wien II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
SKN ST. Polten
1.93
Austria Lustenau
1.90
Admira Wacker
1.76
Floridsdorfer AC
1.71
FC Liefering
1.66
SKU Amstetten
1.57
First Vienna
1.48
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.38
Austria Salzburg
1.32
Austria Klagenfurt
1.24
Rapid Wien II
1.21
WSPG Wels
1.14
SV Kapfenberg
1.07
Stripfing
0.83
Sturm Graz II
0.76
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
0.66
First Vienna is 0.28 points better than Rapid Wien II in terms of average points per game (1.48 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Admira Wacker
1.76
SKN ST. Polten
1.62
FC Liefering
1.62
Floridsdorfer AC
1.50
Austria Lustenau
1.48
SKU Amstetten
1.46
WSPG Wels
1.34
Stripfing
1.33
Austria Salzburg
1.29
Rapid Wien II
1.28
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.24
Austria Klagenfurt
1.17
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.17
SV Kapfenberg
1.10
First Vienna
1.10
Sturm Graz II
1.00
First Vienna is 0.17 goals worse than Rapid Wien II in terms of goals scored per game (1.10 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Floridsdorfer AC
0.64
First Vienna
0.86
SKN ST. Polten
0.93
Austria Lustenau
1.00
Admira Wacker
1.00
SKU Amstetten
1.21
Austria Salzburg
1.32
WSPG Wels
1.41
Austria Vienna (Am)
1.41
FC Liefering
1.41
Austria Klagenfurt
1.52
Rapid Wien II
1.55
Sturm Graz II
1.69
SV Kapfenberg
1.83
Stripfing
1.92
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
2.07
First Vienna is 0.69 goals better than Rapid Wien II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.55).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Liefering
53%
Austria Lustenau
47%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
First Vienna
For 4.8 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 13.1 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rapid Wien II
For 5.0 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 11.0 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
First Vienna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
10.2
8.8
2.2
2.8
1.7
25.8
24.5
27.2
vs Stronger (3)
11.5
3.0
20.0
4.3
5.0
3.0
23.0
25.0
21.0
vs Similar (46)
9.3
10.8
7.7
2.2
2.6
1.7
26.0
24.4
27.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
46%
58%
33%
28%
36%
20%
76%
69%
83%
% under line
54%
42%
67%
72%
64%
80%
24%
31%
17%
This opponent (Rapid Wien II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rapid Wien II
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.6
8.7
2.5
1.9
3.2
23.9
23.6
24.2
vs Stronger (4)
10.3
8.5
14.0
3.2
2.0
7.0
28.0
28.5
27.0
vs Similar (46)
9.0
9.8
8.4
2.5
1.9
3.0
23.5
22.8
24.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
43%
47%
40%
31%
50%
72%
64%
80%
% under line
55%
57%
53%
60%
69%
50%
28%
36%
20%
This opponent (First Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SKN ST. Polten
10.6
Austria Vienna (Am)
10.5
FC Liefering
10.3
SV Kapfenberg
10.3
SKU Amstetten
10.2
First Vienna
10.1
Floridsdorfer AC
10.0
Rapid Wien II
9.7
Austria Klagenfurt
9.4
Austria Lustenau
9.3
Admira Wacker
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SV Kapfenberg
6.5
SKN ST. Polten
5.5
Floridsdorfer AC
5.4
SKU Amstetten
5.3
Austria Klagenfurt
5.1
Austria Lustenau
5.0
First Vienna
5.0
FC Liefering
4.9
Admira Wacker
4.7
Austria Vienna (Am)
4.3
Rapid Wien II
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
First Vienna
26.4
Floridsdorfer AC
26.0
Austria Vienna (Am)
25.2
FC Liefering
25.1
SV Kapfenberg
24.1
SKU Amstetten
23.8
Rapid Wien II
23.8
Austria Lustenau
23.3
Admira Wacker
23.3
SKN ST. Polten
22.5
Austria Klagenfurt
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.3%
Under 9.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
75.7%
Under 3.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
66.4%
Under 21.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
First Vienna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.64
0.50
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.52
0.75
0.50
0.73
0.53
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid Wien II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rapid Wien II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
0.81
0.69
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.82
0.61
0.79
0.64
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (First Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
First Vienna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid Wien II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid Wien II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid Wien II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
First Vienna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.71
0.93
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.89
0.58
1.08
0.53
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid Wien II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rapid Wien II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.27
0.31
1.12
0.79
1.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.57
1.25
0.36
1.07
0.79
1.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (First Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
First Vienna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid Wien II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid Wien II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid Wien II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (17)
€5m
AL (22)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
AV( (23)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
AS (22)
€4m
SB (22)
€3m
WW (19)
€3m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
First Vienna's squad is €1m more valuable than Rapid Wien II's (€5m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RWI (12)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
AV( (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SB (9)
€1m
WW (7)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
AS (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
First Vienna and Rapid Wien II have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
AV( (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
WW (4)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
AS (4)
€1m
First Vienna's midfield is €1m more valuable than Rapid Wien II's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AV( (11)
€2m
AS (11)
€2m
AW (11)
€2m
AL (9)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
WW (8)
€1m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
First Vienna and Rapid Wien II have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
SKN ST. Polten
Austria Lustenau
Admira Wacker
Floridsdorfer AC
FC Liefering
SKU Amstetten
Austria Vienna (Am)
Austria Salzburg
Austria Klagenfurt
WSPG Wels
SV Kapfenberg
Sturm Graz II
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Stripfing