First Vienna, coming off a defeat to Austria Salzburg, hosts Sturm Graz II in a crucial 2. Liga match. The home side has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.25 goals and conceding 1.12 per match against weaker opponents. Meanwhile, Sturm Graz II has been inconsistent away from home, scoring 1.14 goals but conceding 1.71 against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a home win, with a 42% probability, while the draw has a 29% chance and the away win a 30% chance. The expected total goals is 2.6, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.7% probability.
The model suggests two selections: Over 1.5 goals, with a 74.4% probability, and Under 3.5 goals, with a 73.8% probability and a 9% edge. The home side's home win percentage is 42%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 30%.
The win extends First Vienna's recent form woes, as they succumb to a 4-0 defeat, confirming the actual result. The model's call of a home win was correct, with a pre-match probability of 42%. The model's selection of a home win was the favourite, as expected. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 74.4%, while Under 3.5 goals missed, with a probability of 73.8%. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals was the correct call, as the final score was 4-0, well above the threshold.
First Vienna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 0.93 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.00 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 1.15 | 0.96 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.00 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Sturm Graz II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.87 | 1.00 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.00 | 1.68 | 1.07 | 1.93 | 0.93 | 1.43 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-16pp vs league) | |||||
| Sturm Graz II goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 14% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.6% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
First Vienna
Sturm Graz II
First Vienna| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.3 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 24.9 | 21.7 | 27.4 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 3.0 | 3.0 | - | 3.3 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | - |
| vs Similar (45) | 8.7 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 24.9 | 21.0 | 27.4 |
| vs Weaker (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 21% | 33% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 11% | 71% | 50% | 88% |
| % under line | 79% | 67% | 88% | 86% | 83% | 89% | 29% | 50% | 12% |
Sturm Graz II| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (3) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (47) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
First Vienna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.33 | 0.64 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.19 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.70 | 0.37 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 0.71 | 0.21 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+44pp vs league) | |||||
Sturm Graz II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.83 | 0.53 | 0.87 | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.57 | 0.86 | 0.43 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
First Vienna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.44 | 0.59 | 0.62 | 0.77 | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Sturm Graz II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.83 | 0.47 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.50 | 0.89 | 0.50 | 1.07 | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 87.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 80.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 74.5% | 1.29 | 1.39 | 1.24 | 1.23 | - | - | +3.3% | - |
| Over 1.5 | 74.4% | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.20 | -3.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 73.8% | 1.42 | 1.46 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.42 | +8.6% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/10/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 29/04/25 | A | 4-1 | |
| 04/10/24 | H | 2-4 | |
| 24/02/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/08/23 | H | 2-2 | |
| 12/05/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 09/10/22 | A | 0-1 |
First Vienna| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 14/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 24/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 0-2 |
Sturm Graz II| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | Austria Salzburg | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | - |
| 3 | Wacker Innsbruck | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | FC Liefering | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 5 | First Vienna | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 3.5 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 6 | Floridsdorfer AC | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3.5 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | - |
| 8 | SKU Amstetten | 4 | 6 | 25% | 1.5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.8 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Rapid Wien II | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 11 | Voitsberg | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 12 | WSPG Wels | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 13 | Admira Wacker | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1.8 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 14 | Sturm Graz II | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 15 | SKN ST. Polten | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.8 | - |