FK Crvena Zvezda vs IMT Novi Beograd Result & Analysis

FK Crvena Zvezda are the clear favourite, with the model assigning an 82% chance of a home win, a 12% draw probability and only 6% for an away victory. The 82% home win rating reflects the club’s dominant 3.2 goals scored and 0.93 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while IMT Novi Beograd’s away form shows only 0.5 goals scored and 4.5 conceded against stronger teams. The expected total of 4.1 goals signals a high-scoring affair, and the most likely total is “6+” with a 23% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 3-0, with a 9.1% probability. The model’s suggested picks include an 81.7% chance of a home win, an 80.9% probability of over 2.5 cards, a 78.2% chance of over 2.5 goals, a 72.9% chance of under 5.5 cards, and a 92.3% probability of over 1.5 goals. Additional selections are over 19.5 fouls at 95.5%, over 21.5 fouls at 90.0%, and over 23.5 fouls at 81.0%, each with a hit result.

The win extends FK Crvena Zvezda’s recent run, as they finished last match with a 2-0 victory over Zemun. The model’s favourite, Home win, proved correct with a 6-1 triumph, confirming the 82% probability assigned to the home side. The predicted 6+ total goals materialised, and the scoreline of 6-1 matched the most likely 3-0 or 3-1 outcome. Every suggested pick was settled: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 95.5%, Over 1.5 hit at 92.3%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 90.0%, Home win hit at 81.7%, Over 23.5 fouls hit at 81.0%, Over 2.5 hit at 78.2%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 72.9%, while Over 2.5 cards missed at 80.9%. The model’s selections largely came through.