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FK Kukesi vs Erzeni Shijak Result & Analysis

Date: 25/02/2024
Time: 12:30
Final 1-2
FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
Vs
33%
30%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Kukesi win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Erzeni Shijak win✓ Hit
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK KukesiFK Kukesi

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D11D11D01L14L23L23L01L01LH·TEU03/12A·ERZ10/12H·PAR16/12A·LAC23/12A·VLL14/01H·EGN19/01A·DIN29/01H·TIR03/02A·SKE11/02A·TEU16/02
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.401.001.210.941.56
vs Stronger (27)1.001.521.001.331.001.67
vs Similar (3)0.670.331.000.500.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzeni Shijak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D00D21W00D01L23L04L11D03LA·SKE02/12H·FK 10/12H·TEU17/12A·PAR24/12A·LAC14/01H·VLL20/01A·EGN29/01H·DIN04/02A·TIR11/02H·SKE17/02
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.400.671.401.201.40
vs Stronger (16)1.062.000.782.001.432.00
vs Similar (14)0.790.710.500.501.000.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.5%
Under 1.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.1%
Under 2.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.2%
Under 3.5
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.1%
No
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.4%
0-1
9.8%
1-0
9.3%
1-2 ✓
8.0%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
6.2%
FK Kukesi goals ↓
Erzeni Shijak goals →
01234
010%9.8%6.9%2.8%0.9%
19.3%14%8.0%3.3%1.0%
26.2%7.6%4.7%1.9%0.6%
32.4%3.0%1.8%0.8%0.2%
40.7%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Kukesi goals (down), columns = Erzeni Shijak goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.76
Partizani
1.74
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.58
Skenderbeu Korce
1.42
Teuta Durrës
1.39
Tirana
1.39
Dinamo Tirana
1.31
Laci
1.27
Flamurtari
1.00
Erzeni Shijak
0.89
FK Kukesi
0.75
FK Kukesi is 0.14 points worse than Erzeni Shijak in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 0.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tirana
1.56
Partizani
1.37
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.37
Dinamo Tirana
1.17
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Skenderbeu Korce
1.05
Laci
1.03
Teuta Durrës
1.00
Flamurtari
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.86
Erzeni Shijak
0.81
FK Kukesi is 0.06 goals better than Erzeni Shijak in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 0.81).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Partizani
0.79
Laci
0.86
Teuta Durrës
0.97
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.97
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.00
Flamurtari
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
1.11
Dinamo Tirana
1.19
Tirana
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.56
Erzeni Shijak
1.58
FK Kukesi is 0.03 goals better than Erzeni Shijak in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.58).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK KukesiFK Kukesi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D10W01L03L02L21W01L00DH·TEU03/12A·ERZ10/12H·PAR16/12A·LAC23/12A·VLL14/01H·EGN19/01A·DIN29/01H·TIR03/02A·SKE11/02A·TEU16/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.730.140.640.380.81
vs Stronger (27)0.300.780.170.670.400.87
vs Similar (3)0.000.330.000.500.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzeni Shijak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D20W00D00D10W02L00D02LA·SKE02/12H·FK 10/12H·TEU17/12A·PAR24/12A·LAC14/01H·VLL20/01A·EGN29/01H·DIN04/02A·TIR11/02H·SKE17/02
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.670.330.600.470.73
vs Stronger (16)0.380.940.220.780.571.14
vs Similar (14)0.430.360.500.330.380.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Kukesi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzeni Shijak over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzeni Shijak over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzeni Shijak over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK KukesiFK Kukesi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D11D01L00D11D21W02L00D01LH·TEU03/12A·ERZ10/12H·PAR16/12A·LAC23/12A·VLL14/01H·EGN19/01A·DIN29/01H·TIR03/02A·SKE11/02A·TEU16/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.670.860.570.560.75
vs Stronger (27)0.700.740.830.670.600.80
vs Similar (3)0.670.001.000.000.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Erzeni Shijak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D01L00D01L13L02L11D01LA·SKE02/12H·FK 10/12H·TEU17/12A·PAR24/12A·LAC14/01H·VLL20/01A·EGN29/01H·DIN04/02A·TIR11/02H·SKE17/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.730.330.800.730.67
vs Stronger (16)0.691.060.561.220.860.86
vs Similar (14)0.360.360.000.170.620.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Kukesi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzeni Shijak over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzeni Shijak over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Erzeni Shijak over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
FK (20)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
FK (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
FK wins
3
Draws
1
ES wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Kukesi vs Erzeni Shijak · H/A from FK
DateH/AGameScore
10/12/23AErzeni Shijak Vs FK0-0
02/10/23HFK Vs Erzeni Shijak2-1
25/05/23HFK Vs Erzeni Shijak0-0
18/03/23AErzeni Shijak Vs FK1-1
22/01/23HFK Vs Erzeni Shijak0-2
17/10/22AErzeni Shijak Vs FK0-2

FK KukesiFK Kukesi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/02/24ATeuta Durrës Vs FK1-0
11/02/24ASkenderbeu Korce Vs FK1-0
03/02/24HFK Vs Tirana2-3
29/01/24ADinamo Tirana Vs FK3-2
19/01/24HFK Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë1-4
14/01/24AVllaznia Shkodër Vs FK1-0
23/12/23ALaci Vs FK1-1
16/12/23HFK Vs Partizani1-1
10/12/23AErzeni Shijak Vs FK0-0
03/12/23HFK Vs Teuta Durrës0-0

Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/02/24HES Vs Skenderbeu Korce0-3
11/02/24ATirana Vs ES1-1
04/02/24HES Vs Dinamo Tirana0-4
29/01/24AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs ES3-2
20/01/24HES Vs Vllaznia Shkodër0-1
14/01/24ALaci Vs ES0-0
24/12/23APartizani Vs ES1-2
17/12/23HES Vs Teuta Durrës0-0
10/12/23HES Vs FK Kukesi0-0
02/12/23ASkenderbeu Korce Vs ES1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 0 Wins / 4 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.06
HomeDDDLL1.42
AwayDLLLL0.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%38%15%
AVG goals2.101.882.31
Over 1.5 %56%50%62%
Over 2.5 %38%33%42%
Over 3.5 %18%17%19%
Scored0.880.880.88
Conceded1.221.001.42
BTTS42%25%58%
Clean Sheet36%54%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL0.94
HomeDDLLL0.92
AwayLWDLD0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%16%20%
AVG goals2.482.322.64
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %46%48%44%
Over 3.5 %22%16%28%
Scored1.020.921.12
Conceded1.461.401.52
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet20%20%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3867
50%
1.8
5238+14
2.4
66%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2131.41.0
-
2PartizaniPartizani3866
47%
1.7
5230+22
2.2
63%
37%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.40.8
-
3Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3860
42%
1.6
4337+6
2.1
58%
34%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.11.0
-
4Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce3854
42%
1.4
4042-2
2.2
53%
29%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.11.1
-
5TiranaTirana3650
36%
1.4
5649+7
2.9
78%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.4
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3650
36%
1.4
3635+1
2.0
50%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.01.0
-
7LaciLaci3747
27%
1.3
3832+6
1.9
59%
24%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.00.9
-
8Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana3647
36%
1.3
4243-1
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.2
-
9Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak3632
19%
0.9
2957-28
2.4
61%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
10FK KukesiFK Kukesi3627
17%
0.8
3156-25
2.4
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.6
-
11FlamurtariFlamurtari11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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