FK Liepaja’s recent win over Riga and the fact that they are playing at home against a weaker opponent set the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The model projects a 59% chance of a home victory, 21% for a draw and 20% for an away win, with the most likely result being a 2-1 win for Liepaja. The expected total is 3.5 goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 2-1, with a 9.5% probability. Liepaja averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded at home, while Jelgava, on a two-game winning run, averages 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded on the road against stronger opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Under 6.5 (93.3%), Home +2 handicap (91.7%), Home over 0.5 goals (89.5%), Over 1.5 (87.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (86.5%) and Under 5.5 (85.5%). Each pick is listed with its exact probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Liepaja win
58.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava win
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Liepaja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.33
2.15
1.23
1.41
1.41
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
2.40
2.33
2.33
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (12)
1.75
1.00
2.33
0.50
1.17
1.50
vs Weaker (13)
1.77
1.23
1.75
1.50
1.78
1.11
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FS Jelgava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.47
0.71
1.21
1.31
1.69
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
1.77
0.50
1.50
1.20
2.20
vs Similar (14)
1.07
1.14
0.50
0.50
1.30
1.40
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.67
2.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.4%
Under 1.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.2%
Under 2.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.7%
Under 3.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.1%
No
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.5%
1-1
9.3%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
7.1%
2-2
6.0%
1-0
5.8%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.4%
FK Liepaja goals ↓
FS Jelgava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
2.9%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
1
5.8%
9.3%
5.4%
2.3%
0.7%
2
7.5%
9.5%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.6%
7.1%
4.5%
1.9%
0.6%
4
3.2%
4.0%
2.5%
1.1%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Liepaja goals (down), columns = FS Jelgava goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
FK Liepaja is 1.02 points better than FS Jelgava in terms of average points per game (1.88 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Auda
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Grobiņa
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
FK Liepaja is 0.86 goals better than FS Jelgava in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
FK Liepaja is 0.46 goals better than FS Jelgava in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Liepaja or Draw
80.2%
Avg Implied -
59%
21%
20%
covers FK Liepaja + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja or FS Jelgava
78.5%
Avg Implied -
59%
21%
20%
covers FK Liepaja + FS Jelgava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FS Jelgava
41.3%
Avg Implied -
59%
21%
20%
covers Draw + FS Jelgava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5
Over
89.5%
Under
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5
Over
39.1%
Under
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 3.5
Over
19.1%
Under
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5
Over
71.8%
Under
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5
Over
36.2%
Under
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FK Liepaja, so a minus line means FK Liepaja give that many goals of a start and FS Jelgava receive them. At -1, FK Liepaja must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Liepaja win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Liepaja)
FK Liepaja -2
19.9%
Draw -2
17.7%
FS Jelgava +2
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Liepaja)
FK Liepaja -1
37.6%
Draw -1
21.1%
FS Jelgava +1
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Liepaja)
FK Liepaja +1
80.2%
Draw +1
11.5%
FS Jelgava -1
8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Liepaja)
FK Liepaja +2
91.7%
Draw +2
5.6%
FS Jelgava -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Liepaja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
1.00
0.62
0.76
0.59
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
1.15
0.62
1.00
1.00
1.22
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FS Jelgava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.29
0.64
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.92
0.00
0.75
1.00
1.20
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.25
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Liepaja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.15
0.62
0.65
0.82
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.20
1.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
1.08
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.62
0.75
0.50
0.56
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FS Jelgava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.43
0.57
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.85
0.50
0.75
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.43
0.00
0.25
0.90
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
FK Liepaja's squad is €2m more valuable than FS Jelgava's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
FK Liepaja's attack is €1m more valuable than FS Jelgava's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
FK Liepaja and FS Jelgava have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
FK Liepaja and FS Jelgava have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
Auda
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
Grobiņa
Ogre United
Tukums