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FK Liepaja vs Riga Result & Analysis

Date: 19/07/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 2-3
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Vs
15%
23%
62%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Riga
Riga
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Liepaja win✗ Miss
15.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga win✓ Hit
62.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W02L00D10W11D31W10W31W20W12LH·RĪG14/05A·RIG19/05H·AUD24/05A·FS 30/05H·BFC13/06A·SUP17/06H·MET21/06A·TUK25/06H·GRO30/06A·RĪG04/07
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.471.851.081.471.76
vs Stronger (7)0.862.432.003.000.402.20
vs Similar (11)1.641.452.001.001.202.00
vs Weaker (12)2.080.921.600.402.431.29
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RigaRiga

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W30W30W20W31W20W31W30W11DA·BFC14/05H·FK 19/05A·MET24/05H·TUK31/05A·GRO14/06H·RĪG18/06H·SUP22/06A·AUD27/06H·FS 01/07H·BFC06/07
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.630.572.560.502.710.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)2.000.673.001.001.500.50
vs Weaker (27)2.700.562.530.472.920.67
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.7%
Under 2.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.3%
No
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.8%
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.9%
0-1
9.6%
0-3
7.3%
1-3
6.7%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
4.6%
FK Liepaja goals ↓
Riga goals →
01234
06.2%9.6%11%7.3%3.7%
13.8%11%9.9%6.7%3.4%
22.2%4.5%4.6%3.1%1.6%
30.7%1.4%1.4%1.0%0.5%
40.2%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Liepaja goals (down), columns = Riga goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Riga
2.44
Rīgas FS
2.42
FK Liepaja
1.69
BFC Daugavpils
1.33
Auda
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.06
Tukums
1.00
Grobiņa
0.95
Super Nova
0.89
Metta / LU
0.86
JDFS Alberts
0.50
FK Liepaja is 0.75 points worse than Riga in terms of average points per game (1.69 vs 2.44).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.78
Riga
2.36
FK Liepaja
1.64
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
Super Nova
1.22
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.08
Metta / LU
1.08
Tukums
1.08
Grobiņa
0.89
JDFS Alberts
0.00
FK Liepaja is 0.72 goals worse than Riga in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 2.36).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
JDFS Alberts
0.50
Riga
0.72
Rīgas FS
1.08
FS Jelgava
1.28
Auda
1.36
FK Liepaja
1.53
Super Nova
1.56
Grobiņa
1.68
BFC Daugavpils
1.72
Tukums
1.75
Metta / LU
2.06
FK Liepaja is 0.81 goals worse than Riga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 0.72).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L00D00D10W30W00D20W00D01LH·RĪG14/05A·RIG19/05H·AUD24/05A·FS 30/05H·BFC13/06A·SUP17/06H·MET21/06A·TUK25/06H·GRO30/06A·RĪG04/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.571.230.540.760.59
vs Stronger (7)0.571.001.502.000.200.60
vs Similar (11)0.730.641.170.500.200.80
vs Weaker (12)1.420.251.200.001.570.43
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RigaRiga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W20W10W20W00D10W20W20W01LA·BFC14/05H·FK 19/05A·MET24/05H·TUK31/05A·GRO14/06H·RĪG18/06H·SUP22/06A·AUD27/06H·FS 01/07H·BFC06/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.200.810.121.430.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.330.330.000.000.500.50
vs Weaker (27)1.190.190.870.131.580.25
Clean sheet %83% (+55pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L00D10W01L01L10W11D20W11DH·RĪG14/05A·RIG19/05H·AUD24/05A·FS 30/05H·BFC13/06A·SUP17/06H·MET21/06A·TUK25/06H·GRO30/06A·RĪG04/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.900.620.540.711.18
vs Stronger (7)0.291.430.501.000.201.60
vs Similar (11)0.910.820.830.501.001.20
vs Weaker (12)0.670.670.400.400.860.86
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RigaRiga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W10W20W00D31W10W11D10W10WA·BFC14/05H·FK 19/05A·MET24/05H·TUK31/05A·GRO14/06H·RĪG18/06H·SUP22/06A·AUD27/06H·FS 01/07H·BFC06/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.530.371.750.381.290.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.670.333.001.001.000.00
vs Weaker (27)1.520.371.670.331.330.42
Clean sheet %70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.4%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Riga · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Brian Peña0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Antonijs Černomordijs50%
Baba Musah50%
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Petar Bosančić25%
Abdulrahman Taiwo25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Douglas Aurélio25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Anthony Contreras0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Contreras25%
Antonijs Černomordijs25%
Baba Musah25%
Ngonda Muzinga0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Gauthier Mankenda0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja's squad is €11m less valuable than Riga's (€5m vs €16m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
FK Liepaja's attack is €5m less valuable than Riga's (€2m vs €7m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
FK Liepaja's midfield is €2m less valuable than Riga's (€1m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja's defence is €4m less valuable than Riga's (€2m vs €6m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
FL wins
1
Draws
7
RIG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja vs Riga · H/A from FL
DateH/AGameScore
19/05/25ARiga Vs FL2-0
03/04/25HFL Vs Riga2-5
29/09/24ARiga Vs FL1-0
07/07/24HFL Vs Riga0-3
14/05/24HFL Vs Riga1-1
04/04/24ARiga Vs FL4-0
25/09/23ARiga Vs FL3-1
04/07/23ARiga Vs FL3-1

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/07/25ARīgas FS Vs FL2-1
30/06/25HFL Vs Grobiņa2-0
25/06/25ATukums Vs FL1-3
21/06/25HFL Vs Metta / LU1-0
17/06/25ASuper Nova Vs FL1-3
13/06/25HFL Vs BFC Daugavpils1-1
30/05/25AFS Jelgava Vs FL0-1
24/05/25HFL Vs Auda0-0
19/05/25ARiga Vs FL2-0
14/05/25HFL Vs Rīgas FS2-1

RigaRiga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/07/25HRIG Vs BFC Daugavpils1-1
01/07/25HRIG Vs FS Jelgava3-0
27/06/25AAuda Vs RIG1-3
22/06/25HRIG Vs Super Nova2-0
18/06/25HRIG Vs Rīgas FS3-1
14/06/25AGrobiņa Vs RIG0-2
31/05/25HRIG Vs Tukums3-0
24/05/25AMetta / LU Vs RIG0-3
19/05/25HRIG Vs FK Liepaja2-0
14/05/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs RIG0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.34
HomeWDDWW1.50
AwayLWWWL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%38%33%
AVG goals2.942.853.04
Over 1.5 %82%77%88%
Over 2.5 %56%58%54%
Over 3.5 %34%31%38%
Scored1.401.501.29
Conceded1.541.351.75
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet24%35%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Riga
Riga
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWD2.48
HomeWWWWD2.48
AwayWWWWW2.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %76%76%76%
AVG goals3.363.043.68
Over 1.5 %84%76%92%
Over 2.5 %60%48%72%
Over 3.5 %40%28%52%
Scored2.722.602.84
Conceded0.640.440.84
BTTS46%36%56%
Clean Sheet54%64%44%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8526+59
3.1
81%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.40.7
-
2Rīgas FSRīgas FS3687
78%
2.4
10039+61
3.9
78%
72%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.81.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3661
50%
1.7
5955+4
3.2
83%
69%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.5
-
4BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3648
36%
1.3
5262-10
3.2
78%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.7
-
5AudaAuda3645
36%
1.2
4449-5
2.6
67%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.4
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3638
22%
1.1
3946-7
2.4
69%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.3
-
7TukumsTukums3636
25%
1.0
3963-24
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.8
-
8GrobiņaGrobiņa3836
24%
0.9
3464-30
2.6
68%
37%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.7
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3632
17%
0.9
4456-12
2.8
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.6
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3631
22%
0.9
3974-35
3.1
78%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.1
-
11JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.5
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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