FK Liepaja vs Riga Result & Analysis

Date: 31/08/2026

Time: 14:30

Final 3-2

FK Liepaja

28%

25%

47%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Riga

Latvia: Virsliga

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 13 Player market rates 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

FK Liepaja’s home form has been shaky, with only two wins in five games and a recent 0-1 defeat to Auda, while Riga, on the road, has gone unbeaten in their last five, scoring 3-3 against Rīgas FS. The model sees a high-scoring affair, expecting 3.2 goals on average, and the most likely total is three, with a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.4% probability. The favored outcome is an away win, with Riga’s away average of 2.09 goals scored and 1.27 conceded against weaker opponents, versus Liepaja’s 2.0 scored and 2.5 conceded at home against stronger teams. Home win probability stands at 28%, a draw at 25%, and an away win at 47%. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.0%), Under 7.5 (98.4%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3%), Under 6.5 (95.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.0%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.7%), Home under 1.5 HT goals (91.9%), and Under 5.5 (89.9%).

Results analysis

FK Liepaja’s win over Riga was a shock, as the pre-match favourite was the away side with a 47% chance of victory. The model’s call was therefore wrong, and the final score of 3-2 confirmed a home triumph. The home team’s recent form, a win that extended a good run, helped them overturn expectations. The model’s selections all hit except the Home under 1.5 HT goals, which missed. The high-confidence picks included Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Under 7.5 at 98.4%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7%, Under 6.5 at 95.8%, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.0%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.5%, and Under 5.5 at 89.9%. The only miss was the Home under 1.5 HT goals at 90.5%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Liepaja win✓ Hit

28.3%

Avg Implied 13.4% · @ 6.74

Edge

+14.8%

Best 5 market prices

1xBet

7.80

BetVictor

7.50

Betfair

7.50

10Bet

7.40

Marathonbet

7.10

Draw✗ Miss

25.1%

Avg Implied 19.4% · @ 4.66

Edge

+5.7%

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

5.00

BetVictor

5.00

Dafabet

4.90

Pinnacle

4.83

1xBet

4.75

Riga win✗ Miss

46.6%

Avg Implied 67.1% · @ 1.35

Edge

-20.5%

Best 5 market prices

Unibet

1.40

Pinnacle

1.39

Betano

1.39

Dafabet

1.38

Superbet

1.36

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.1

Avg scored

1.6

Avg conceded

1.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.63	1.27	1.92	1.08	1.41	1.41
vs Stronger (4)	1.25	2.50	2.00	2.50	0.50	2.50
vs Similar (13)	1.62	0.92	2.00	0.43	1.17	1.50
vs Weaker (13)	1.77	1.23	1.75	1.50	1.78	1.11
Clean sheet %	27% (-2pp vs league)

This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.0

Avg scored

2.3

Avg conceded

0.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	2.20	0.97	2.67	0.67	1.73	1.27
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (7)	1.29	1.43	2.00	1.67	0.75	1.25
vs Weaker (23)	2.48	0.83	2.83	0.42	2.09	1.27
Clean sheet %	50% (+22pp vs league)

This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

83.4%

@ 1.12+1.3%

Under 1.5

16.6%

@ 5.15-1.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

1.14

Bet365

1.14

1xBet

1.10

Marathonbet

1.10

Under

Betfair

5.50

1xBet

5.10

Marathonbet

5.00

Bet365

5.00

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

61.2%

@ 1.47-1.4%

Under 2.5

38.8%

@ 2.47+1.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

1.53

Pinnacle

1.51

Bet365

1.50

BetVictor

1.50

Superbet

1.48

Under

Unibet

2.70

Betfair

2.55

Bet365

2.50

Pinnacle

2.45

BetVictor

2.45

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

38.9%

@ 2.21-2.9%

Under 3.5

61.1%

@ 1.59+2.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

2.35

Betfair

2.30

Pinnacle

2.29

BetVictor

2.25

Marathonbet

2.23

Under

Unibet

1.70

Bet365

1.62

Betfair

1.60

1xBet

1.58

Pinnacle

1.58

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

63.2%

@ 1.69+8.7%

36.8%

@ 2.02-8.7%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Bet365

1.80

Betfair

1.75

Superbet

1.73

10Bet

1.73

1xBet

1.70

Unibet

2.32

William Hil

2.10

Betfair

2.00

Superbet

2.00

BetVictor

2.00

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

11.4%@ 8.49+6.4%

1-2

9.3%@ 7.33+3.5%

2-1

7.1%@ 18.36+4.8%

0-2

6.8%@ 6.89+0.7%

0-1

6.6%@ 7.67+1.0%

2-2

6.4%@ 14.92+3.5%

1-3

5.6%@ 9.13+0.9%

0-0

5.3%@ 15.40+2.5%

FK Liepaja goals ↓

	Riga goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.3%	6.6%	6.8%	4.1%	1.8%
1	4.7%	11%	9.3%	5.6%	2.5%
2	3.9%	7.1%	6.4%	3.8%	1.7%
3	1.8%	3.2%	2.9%	1.7%	0.8%
4	0.6%	1.1%	1.0%	0.6%	0.3%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Liepaja goals (down), columns = Riga goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Rīgas FS

2.43

Riga

2.29

Auda

2.00

FK Liepaja

1.88

BFC Daugavpils

1.62

Super Nova

1.33

Grobiņa

1.00

FS Jelgava

0.86

Ogre United

0.57

Tukums

0.38

FK Liepaja is 0.41 points worse than Riga in terms of average points per game (1.88 vs 2.29).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Riga

3.00

Rīgas FS

2.57

FK Liepaja

2.00

BFC Daugavpils

1.50

Super Nova

1.17

Grobiņa

1.14

FS Jelgava

1.14

Auda

1.14

Ogre United

1.00

Tukums

0.75

FK Liepaja is 1.00 goals worse than Riga in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 3.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Auda

0.57

Rīgas FS

0.86

BFC Daugavpils

0.88

Super Nova

1.00

Riga

1.14

FK Liepaja

1.25

FS Jelgava

1.71

Tukums

2.38

Grobiņa

2.57

Ogre United

3.00

FK Liepaja is 0.11 goals worse than Riga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.14).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

FK Liepaja or Draw✓ Hit

53.4%

Avg Implied 32.4% · @ 2.82

Edge

+21.0%

28%

25%

47%

covers FK Liepaja + Draw

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

3.10

William Hil

3.00

10Bet

3.00

BetVictor

3.00

1xBet

2.92

FK Liepaja or Riga✓ Hit

74.9%

Avg Implied 81.4% · @ 1.12

Edge

-6.5%

28%

25%

47%

covers FK Liepaja + Riga

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

1.17

Betano

1.16

Betfair

1.13

Unibet

1.13

Superbet

1.12

Draw or Riga✗ Miss

71.7%

Avg Implied 86.2% · @ 1.06

Edge

-14.5%

28%

25%

47%

covers Draw + Riga

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.11

BetVictor

1.10

Bet365

1.08

William Hil

1.08

Unibet

1.07

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

FK Liepaja over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

74.5%

@ 1.59+16.5%

Under

25.5%

@ 2.19-16.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.62

Pinnacle

1.61

10Bet

1.60

1xBet

1.56

Marathonbet

1.55

Under

Pinnacle

2.28

Bet365

2.20

Marathonbet

2.20

1xBet

2.18

10Bet

2.10

FK Liepaja over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

39.6%

@ 3.85+15.7%

Under

60.4%

@ 1.21-15.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

4.00

10Bet

3.95

Marathonbet

3.94

1xBet

3.50

Under

1xBet

1.24

Bet365

1.22

Marathonbet

1.19

10Bet

1.18

FK Liepaja over/under 2.5Actual: Over

Over

15.8%

@ 8.00+4.4%

Under

84.2%

@ 1.03-4.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

9.00

1xBet

7.50

Marathonbet

7.50

Under

Bet365

1.04

1xBet

1.03

Marathonbet

1.03

FK Liepaja over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

5.0%

@ 17.00-95.0%

Under

95.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

17.00

Under

No market prices yet.

Riga over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

83.4%

@ 1.05-4.9%

Under

16.6%

@ 7.95+4.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.07

1xBet

1.04

Under

1xBet

8.40

Bet365

7.50

Riga over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

53.6%

@ 1.37-13.3%

Under

46.4%

@ 2.77+13.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.40

10Bet

1.36

Marathonbet

1.36

1xBet

1.36

Under

1xBet

2.85

Marathonbet

2.80

Bet365

2.75

10Bet

2.70

Riga over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

26.8%

@ 2.20-15.2%

Under

73.2%

@ 1.60+15.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.29

1xBet

2.20

Bet365

2.20

Marathonbet

2.16

10Bet

2.15

Under

Bet365

1.62

1xBet

1.60

Pinnacle

1.60

Marathonbet

1.59

10Bet

1.57

Riga over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

10.8%

@ 4.00-12.3%

Under

89.2%

@ 1.21+12.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

4.00

1xBet

4.00

Under

Bet365

1.22

1xBet

1.19

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to FK Liepaja, so a minus line means FK Liepaja give that many goals of a start and Riga receive them. At -1, FK Liepaja must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Liepaja win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (FK Liepaja)Actual: Riga

FK Liepaja -2

4.5%

@ 41.00+2.2%

Draw -2

8.3%

@ 21.00+3.8%

Riga +2

87.1%

@ 1.02-6.0%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

41.00

Draw

Bet365

21.00

Away

Bet365

1.02

Handicap -1 (FK Liepaja)Actual: Draw

FK Liepaja -1

12.9%

@ 11.90+5.4%

Draw -1

15.4%

@ 7.12+3.0%

Riga +1

71.7%

@ 1.10-8.5%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

17.00

Marathonbet

6.80

Draw

Bet365

9.50

Marathonbet

4.75

Away

Marathonbet

1.10

Bet365

1.10

Handicap +1 (FK Liepaja)Actual: FK Liepaja

FK Liepaja +1

53.4%

@ 2.98+23.4%

Draw +1

20.6%

@ 3.75-3.2%

Riga -1

26.1%

@ 1.93-20.2%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Betfair

3.10

10Bet

3.00

Bet365

3.00

Marathonbet

2.83

Draw

Bet365

4.00

Marathonbet

3.78

Betfair

3.60

10Bet

3.60

Away

10Bet

1.95

Marathonbet

1.94

Betfair

1.91

Bet365

1.91

Handicap +2 (FK Liepaja)Actual: FK Liepaja

FK Liepaja +2

73.9%

@ 1.75+22.1%

Draw +2

14.4%

@ 4.33-6.5%

Riga -2

11.6%

@ 3.34-15.6%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.80

Marathonbet

1.70

Draw

Marathonbet

4.33

Bet365

4.33

Away

Bet365

3.40

Marathonbet

3.28

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.5

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

0.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.80	0.57	0.85	0.54	0.76	0.59
vs Stronger (4)	0.25	1.25	0.50	1.50	0.00	1.00
vs Similar (13)	0.62	0.31	0.86	0.00	0.33	0.67
vs Weaker (13)	1.15	0.62	1.00	1.00	1.22	0.44
Clean sheet %	57% (+28pp vs league)

This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.2

Avg scored

0.9

Avg conceded

0.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.80	0.37	0.80	0.27	0.80	0.47
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (7)	0.14	0.43	0.00	0.67	0.25	0.25
vs Weaker (23)	1.00	0.35	1.00	0.17	1.00	0.55
Clean sheet %	70% (+42pp vs league)

This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

73.4%

@ 1.24-0.9%

Under 0.5

26.6%

@ 3.59+0.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.25

William Hil

1.25

10Bet

1.25

BetVictor

1.25

Marathonbet

1.23

Under

Betfair

3.75

Bet365

3.75

William Hil

3.60

BetVictor

3.60

10Bet

3.55

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

41.0%

@ 2.18-1.2%

Under 1.5

59.0%

@ 1.59+1.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.25

Betfair

2.25

Bet365

2.20

Marathonbet

2.20

1xBet

2.18

Under

Bet365

1.62

10Bet

1.62

William Hil

1.62

Pinnacle

1.61

BetVictor

1.60

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

13.7%

@ 4.85-5.2%

Under 2.5

86.3%

@ 1.14+5.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

5.00

Betfair

5.00

Marathonbet

4.90

1xBet

4.90

William Hil

4.80

Under

Bet365

1.17

William Hil

1.15

Betfair

1.14

BetVictor

1.13

Marathonbet

1.11

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

39.9%

@ 2.73+6.2%

Under

60.1%

@ 1.39-6.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

2.75

1xBet

2.70

Under

1xBet

1.41

Marathonbet

1.36

FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over

Over

9.5%

@ 9.05-0.5%

Under

90.5%

@ 1.01+0.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

9.10

Marathonbet

9.00

Under

1xBet

1.02

Marathonbet

1.01

FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

1.2%

Under

98.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Riga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

58.7%

@ 1.45-5.4%

Under

41.3%

@ 2.59+5.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.46

1xBet

1.44

Under

1xBet

2.60

Pinnacle

2.58

Riga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

23.6%

@ 3.10-5.8%

Under

76.4%

@ 1.29+5.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

3.20

1xBet

3.00

Under

1xBet

1.32

Marathonbet

1.27

Riga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

5.5%

@ 8.00-5.9%

Under

94.5%

@ 1.03+5.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

8.00

Under

1xBet

1.03

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.6

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

0.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.83	0.70	1.08	0.54	0.65	0.82
vs Stronger (4)	1.00	1.25	1.50	1.00	0.50	1.50
vs Similar (13)	1.00	0.62	1.14	0.43	0.83	0.83
vs Weaker (13)	0.62	0.62	0.75	0.50	0.56	0.67
Clean sheet %	40% (+12pp vs league)

This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.8

Avg scored

1.4

Avg conceded

0.4

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.40	0.60	1.87	0.40	0.93	0.80
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (7)	1.14	1.00	2.00	1.00	0.50	1.00
vs Weaker (23)	1.48	0.48	1.83	0.25	1.09	0.73
Clean sheet %	60% (+32pp vs league)

This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

79.9%

@ 1.12-2.1%

Under 0.5

20.1%

@ 5.14+2.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

1.17

Bet365

1.14

Marathonbet

1.10

1xBet

1.09

Under

Bet365

5.50

1xBet

5.25

Marathonbet

5.20

William Hil

4.60

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

47.9%

@ 1.72-5.6%

Under 1.5

52.1%

@ 1.98+5.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

1.77

William Hil

1.75

Bet365

1.73

Marathonbet

1.69

1xBet

1.68

Under

1xBet

2.03

Marathonbet

2.02

Bet365

2.00

10Bet

1.95

William Hil

1.91

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

21.8%

@ 3.24-6.5%

Under 2.5

78.2%

@ 1.28+6.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

3.40

Bet365

3.40

1xBet

3.08

Marathonbet

3.08

Under

Bet365

1.30

1xBet

1.28

Marathonbet

1.28

William Hil

1.25

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

45.3%

@ 2.27+4.9%

Under

54.7%

@ 1.54-4.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.27

Marathonbet

2.27

Under

1xBet

1.56

Marathonbet

1.52

FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

13.3%

@ 8.25+2.2%

Under

86.7%

@ 1.03-2.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

8.60

1xBet

7.90

Under

1xBet

1.04

Marathonbet

1.02

FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

2.3%

Under

97.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Riga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

65.4%

@ 1.28-6.6%

Under

34.6%

@ 3.30+6.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.28

Under

1xBet

3.30

Riga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

28.0%

@ 2.31-11.5%

Under

72.0%

@ 1.51+11.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.32

Marathonbet

2.31

Under

1xBet

1.53

Marathonbet

1.50

Riga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

13.0%

@ 5.30-4.3%

Under

87.0%

@ 1.11+4.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

5.30

Under

1xBet

1.11

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals	98.8%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Under 7.5	98.4%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	1xBet 1.01	-	-	-	+4.7%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals	97.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Under 6.5	95.8%	1.03	1xBet 1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	+5.1%	✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals	95.0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals	94.5%	1.03	1xBet 1.03	-	-	-	-	+5.9%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals	90.5%	1.01	1xBet 1.02	Marathonbet 1.01	-	-	-	+0.5%	✗ Miss
Under 5.5	89.9%	1.06	Bet365 1.10	Betfair 1.07	Marathonbet 1.04	1xBet 1.04	-	+2.9%	✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals	89.2%	1.21	Bet365 1.22	1xBet 1.19	-	-	-	+12.3%	✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap	87.1%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	-6.0%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals	87.0%	1.11	1xBet 1.11	-	-	-	-	+4.3%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals	86.7%	1.03	1xBet 1.04	Marathonbet 1.02	-	-	-	-2.2%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals	86.3%	1.14	Bet365 1.17	William Hil 1.15	Betfair 1.14	BetVictor 1.13	Marathonbet 1.11	+5.2%	✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals	84.2%	1.03	Bet365 1.04	1xBet 1.03	Marathonbet 1.03	-	-	-4.4%	✗ Miss
Over 1.5	83.4%	1.12	Betfair 1.14	Bet365 1.14	1xBet 1.10	Marathonbet 1.10	-	+1.3%	✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals	83.4%	1.05	Bet365 1.07	1xBet 1.04	-	-	-	-4.9%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals	79.9%	1.12	William Hil 1.17	Bet365 1.14	Marathonbet 1.10	1xBet 1.09	-	-2.1%	✓ Hit
Under 4.5	78.7%	1.22	Unibet 1.28	Bet365 1.25	10Bet 1.22	Betfair 1.22	Superbet 1.21	+3.2%	✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals	78.2%	1.28	Bet365 1.30	1xBet 1.28	Marathonbet 1.28	William Hil 1.25	-	+6.5%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals	76.4%	1.29	1xBet 1.32	Marathonbet 1.27	-	-	-	+5.8%	✓ Hit
Home or Away	74.9%	1.12	William Hil 1.17	Betano 1.16	Betfair 1.13	Unibet 1.13	Superbet 1.12	-6.5%	✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals	74.5%	1.59	Bet365 1.62	Pinnacle 1.61	10Bet 1.60	1xBet 1.56	Marathonbet 1.55	+16.5%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals	73.4%	1.24	Bet365 1.25	William Hil 1.25	10Bet 1.25	BetVictor 1.25	Marathonbet 1.23	-0.9%	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals	73.2%	1.60	Bet365 1.62	1xBet 1.60	Pinnacle 1.60	Marathonbet 1.59	10Bet 1.57	+15.2%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals	72.0%	1.51	1xBet 1.53	Marathonbet 1.50	-	-	-	+11.5%	✓ Hit
Draw or Away	71.7%	1.06	Betano 1.11	BetVictor 1.10	Bet365 1.08	William Hil 1.08	Unibet 1.07	-14.5%	✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap	71.7%	1.10	Marathonbet 1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-8.5%	✗ Miss

🎽 13. Player market rates

Riga · 2023/24

Anytime goalscorer

Matches in which the player scored

Ngonda Muzinga33%

Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom33%

Anthony Contreras25%

Gauthier Mankenda25%

Mikael Soisalo0%

Petar Bosančić0%

Douglas Aurélio0%

Miloš Jojić0%

Antonijs Černomordijs0%

Abdulrahman Taiwo0%

Raivis Jurkovskis0%

Nils Purins0%

Marko Regža0%

Hrvoje Babec0%

Eduards Daskevics0%

Baba Musah0%

Brian Peña0%

To be booked (yellow)

Matches in which the player was booked

Antonijs Černomordijs50%

Baba Musah50%

Ngonda Muzinga33%

Anthony Contreras25%

Petar Bosančić25%

Abdulrahman Taiwo25%

Gauthier Mankenda25%

Mikael Soisalo0%

Douglas Aurélio0%

Miloš Jojić0%

Raivis Jurkovskis0%

Nils Purins0%

Marko Regža0%

Hrvoje Babec0%

Eduards Daskevics0%

Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%

Brian Peña0%

Anytime assist

Matches in which the player assisted

Ngonda Muzinga33%

Douglas Aurélio25%

Gauthier Mankenda25%

Mikael Soisalo0%

Anthony Contreras0%

Petar Bosančić0%

Miloš Jojić0%

Antonijs Černomordijs0%

Abdulrahman Taiwo0%

Raivis Jurkovskis0%

Nils Purins0%

Marko Regža0%

Hrvoje Babec0%

Eduards Daskevics0%

Baba Musah0%

Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%

Brian Peña0%

Over 2.5 shots

Matches with 3+ shots taken

Anthony Contreras25%

Antonijs Černomordijs25%

Baba Musah25%

Ngonda Muzinga0%

Mikael Soisalo0%

Petar Bosančić0%

Douglas Aurélio0%

Miloš Jojić0%

Abdulrahman Taiwo0%

Raivis Jurkovskis0%

Nils Purins0%

Marko Regža0%

Gauthier Mankenda0%

Hrvoje Babec0%

Eduards Daskevics0%

Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%

Brian Peña0%

Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (27)

€16m

RF (29)

€11m

AUD (25)

€6m

FL (21)

€5m

OU (27)

€3m

SN (24)

€3m

GRO (25)

€3m

FJ (23)

€3m

BD (21)

€3m

TUK (20)

€2m

FK Liepaja's squad is €11m less valuable than Riga's (€5m vs €16m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (10)

€7m

RF (15)

€6m

AUD (11)

€3m

FL (7)

€2m

OU (12)

€2m

GRO (10)

€1m

SN (8)

€1m

FJ (8)

€1m

TUK (7)

€1m

BD (7)

€1m

FK Liepaja's attack is €5m less valuable than Riga's (€2m vs €7m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (5)

€3m

RF (4)

€2m

SN (6)

€1m

FL (4)

€1m

BD (6)

€1m

OU (4)

€1m

GRO (6)

€1m

FJ (5)

€0m

AUD (3)

€0m

TUK (3)

€0m

FK Liepaja's midfield is €2m less valuable than Riga's (€1m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (12)

€6m

RF (10)

€3m

AUD (11)

€3m

FL (10)

€2m

FJ (10)

€1m

GRO (9)

€1m

TUK (10)

€1m

OU (11)

€1m

BD (8)

€1m

SN (10)

€1m

FK Liepaja's defence is €4m less valuable than Riga's (€2m vs €6m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings

FL wins

Draws

RIG wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja vs Riga · H/A from FL

Date	H/A	Game	Score
03/10/25	A	Riga Vs FL	3-0
19/07/25	H	FL Vs Riga	2-3
19/05/25	A	Riga Vs FL	2-0
03/04/25	H	FL Vs Riga	2-5
29/09/24	A	Riga Vs FL	1-0
07/07/24	H	FL Vs Riga	0-3
14/05/24	H	FL Vs Riga	1-1
04/04/24	A	Riga Vs FL	4-0

FK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
25/08/26	A	Auda Vs FL	1-0
21/08/26	H	FL Vs Grobiņa	3-1
09/08/26	A	Super Nova Vs FL	1-2
02/08/26	A	Tukums Vs FL	2-1
30/07/26	A	Austria Vienna Vs FL	3-1
26/07/26	A	FS Jelgava Vs FL	0-2
04/07/26	A	BFC Daugavpils Vs FL	3-1
30/06/26	H	FL Vs Ogre United	4-0
09/11/25	A	Super Nova Vs FL	3-0
02/11/25	A	BFC Daugavpils Vs FL	1-2

Riga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
27/08/26	H	RIG Vs KI Klaksvik	2-1
23/08/26	A	Rīgas FS Vs RIG	3-3
20/08/26	A	KI Klaksvik Vs RIG	0-0
13/08/26	A	Gyori ETO FC Vs RIG	1-1
09/08/26	H	RIG Vs Ogre United	4-1
06/08/26	H	RIG Vs Gyori ETO FC	1-0
02/08/26	H	RIG Vs Grobiņa	4-0
18/07/26	H	RIG Vs Tukums	3-1
03/07/26	H	RIG Vs FS Jelgava	3-0
29/06/26	A	Auda Vs RIG	0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Liepaja

Latvia: Virsliga

Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLWWL	1.68
Home	WDDWW	1.95
Away	WLLWL	1.46

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	50%	55%	46%
AVG goals	3.16	3.27	3.07
Over 1.5 %	82%	82%	82%
Over 2.5 %	70%	68%	71%
Over 3.5 %	42%	50%	36%
Scored	1.68	2.05	1.39
Conceded	1.48	1.23	1.68
BTTS	60%	59%	61%
Clean Sheet	24%	36%	14%
Corners	11.00	-	11.00
Cards	4.00	-	4.00

Riga

Latvia: Virsliga

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WDDDW	2.36
Home	WWWWW	2.52
Away	DWDDD	2.20

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	72%	80%	64%
AVG goals	3.08	3.04	3.12
Over 1.5 %	80%	88%	72%
Over 2.5 %	56%	64%	48%
Over 3.5 %	34%	28%	40%
Scored	2.28	2.44	2.12
Conceded	0.80	0.60	1.00
BTTS	46%	40%	52%
Clean Sheet	52%	60%	44%
Corners	11.25	8.50	14.00
Cards	4.25	5.00	3.50

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Rīgas FS	7	17	71%	2.4	18	6	+12	3.4	71%	57%	43%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	11	6	2	3	2.6	0.9	-
2	Riga	7	16	71%	2.3	21	8	+13	4.1	100%	86%	71%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	16	7	3	6	3.0	1.1	-
3	FK Liepaja	8	15	62%	1.9	16	10	+6	3.2	88%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	2	1	2	2.0	1.2	-
4	Auda	7	14	57%	2.0	8	4	+4	1.7	57%	14%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	3	0	3	1.1	0.6	-
5	BFC Daugavpils	8	13	50%	1.6	12	7	+5	2.4	62%	50%	38%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.5	0.9	-
6	Super Nova	6	8	33%	1.3	7	6	+1	2.2	83%	50%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.2	1.0	-
7	Grobiņa	7	7	29%	1.0	8	18	-10	3.7	86%	71%	71%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.1	2.6	-
8	FS Jelgava	7	6	29%	0.9	8	12	-4	2.9	71%	57%	29%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	0	1	1.1	1.7	-
9	Ogre United	7	4	14%	0.6	7	21	-14	4.0	100%	100%	71%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	2	1	1	1.0	3.0	-
10	Tukums	8	3	12%	0.4	6	19	-13	3.1	88%	75%	38%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	1	0	1	0.8	2.4	-

Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

← all matches

FK Liepaja vs Riga Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK Liepaja

Riga

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK Liepaja

Riga

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK Liepaja

Riga

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

🎽 13. Player market rates

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja

Riga

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature