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FK Liepaja vs Rīgas FS Result & Analysis

Date: 14/05/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Vs
19%
23%
59%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Liepaja win✓ Hit
18.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS win✗ Miss
58.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-541W14L25L03L10W24L22D42W22D02LH·GRO16/03A·RĪG29/03H·RIG03/04A·AUD09/04H·FS 14/04A·BFC19/04H·SUP25/04A·MET02/05A·TUK06/05A·GRO10/05
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.631.731.401.271.87
vs Stronger (6)0.673.001.003.670.332.33
vs Similar (14)1.291.501.671.171.001.75
vs Weaker (10)2.301.002.170.502.501.75
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W41W01L20W41W21W01L10W22D51WA·BFC15/03H·FK 29/03A·MET04/04H·TUK09/04A·GRO15/04A·SUP20/04H·RIG26/04H·AUD01/05A·FS 05/05H·BFC09/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.031.930.931.671.13
vs Stronger (3)1.001.331.001.33--
vs Similar (8)0.751.620.671.330.801.80
vs Weaker (19)2.370.742.670.672.100.80
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.8%
Under 1.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.0%
Under 2.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.8%
Under 3.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.8%
No
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
8.9%
0-1
7.6%
1-3
6.9%
0-3
6.2%
2-2
5.5%
2-1 ✓
5.3%
FK Liepaja goals ↓
Rīgas FS goals →
01234
05.0%7.6%8.9%6.2%3.2%
13.6%10%9.9%6.9%3.6%
22.5%5.3%5.5%3.8%2.0%
30.9%2.0%2.0%1.4%0.7%
40.3%0.5%0.6%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Liepaja goals (down), columns = Rīgas FS goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Riga
2.44
Rīgas FS
2.42
FK Liepaja
1.69
BFC Daugavpils
1.33
Auda
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.06
Tukums
1.00
Grobiņa
0.95
Super Nova
0.89
Metta / LU
0.86
JDFS Alberts
0.50
FK Liepaja is 0.72 points worse than Rīgas FS in terms of average points per game (1.69 vs 2.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.78
Riga
2.36
FK Liepaja
1.64
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
Super Nova
1.22
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.08
Metta / LU
1.08
Tukums
1.08
Grobiņa
0.89
JDFS Alberts
0.00
FK Liepaja is 1.14 goals worse than Rīgas FS in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 2.78).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
JDFS Alberts
0.50
Riga
0.72
Rīgas FS
1.08
FS Jelgava
1.28
Auda
1.36
FK Liepaja
1.53
Super Nova
1.56
Grobiņa
1.68
BFC Daugavpils
1.72
Tukums
1.75
Metta / LU
2.06
FK Liepaja is 0.44 goals worse than Rīgas FS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W10W23L01L10W01L20W20W12L01LH·GRO16/03A·RĪG29/03H·RIG03/04A·AUD09/04H·FS 14/04A·BFC19/04H·SUP25/04A·MET02/05A·TUK06/05A·GRO10/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.701.130.670.600.73
vs Stronger (6)0.671.001.001.670.330.33
vs Similar (14)0.570.861.000.830.250.88
vs Weaker (10)1.400.301.330.001.500.75
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L00D20W10W11D00D10W00D20WA·BFC15/03H·FK 29/03A·MET04/04H·TUK09/04A·GRO15/04A·SUP20/04H·RIG26/04H·AUD01/05A·FS 05/05H·BFC09/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.300.930.330.870.27
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.331.00--
vs Similar (8)0.500.500.330.330.600.60
vs Weaker (19)1.160.111.330.111.000.10
Clean sheet %77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W04L02L02L00D23L02L22D10W01LH·GRO16/03A·RĪG29/03H·RIG03/04A·AUD09/04H·FS 14/04A·BFC19/04H·SUP25/04A·MET02/05A·TUK06/05A·GRO10/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.930.600.730.671.13
vs Stronger (6)0.002.000.002.000.002.00
vs Similar (14)0.710.640.670.330.750.88
vs Weaker (10)0.900.700.830.501.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L40W01L00D31W10W01L00D22D31WA·BFC15/03H·FK 29/03A·MET04/04H·TUK09/04A·GRO15/04A·SUP20/04H·RIG26/04H·AUD01/05A·FS 05/05H·BFC09/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.731.000.600.800.87
vs Stronger (3)0.670.330.670.33--
vs Similar (8)0.251.120.331.000.201.20
vs Weaker (19)1.210.631.330.561.100.70
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.8%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Rīgas FS · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Žiga Lipušček14%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefan Panić38%
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Adam Markhiyev25%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Herdi Prenga12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Stefan Panić12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Adam Markhiyev0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Darko Lemajić25%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja's squad is €6m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€5m vs €11m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
FK Liepaja's attack is €4m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€2m vs €6m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
FK Liepaja and Rīgas FS have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja's defence is €1m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€2m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
FL wins
1
Draws
7
RF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja vs Rīgas FS · H/A from FL
DateH/AGameScore
29/03/25ARīgas FS Vs FL4-1
20/09/24ARīgas FS Vs FL2-0
01/07/24HFL Vs Rīgas FS1-3
10/05/24ARīgas FS Vs FL4-1
30/03/24HFL Vs Rīgas FS0-3
30/09/23ARīgas FS Vs FL3-1
08/07/23HFL Vs Rīgas FS1-1
17/05/23HFL Vs Rīgas FS0-3

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/25AGrobiņa Vs FL2-0
06/05/25ATukums Vs FL2-2
02/05/25AMetta / LU Vs FL2-4
25/04/25HFL Vs Super Nova2-2
19/04/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs FL4-2
14/04/25HFL Vs FS Jelgava1-0
09/04/25AAuda Vs FL3-0
03/04/25HFL Vs Riga2-5
29/03/25ARīgas FS Vs FL4-1
16/03/25HFL Vs Grobiņa4-1

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/25HRF Vs BFC Daugavpils5-1
05/05/25AFS Jelgava Vs RF2-2
01/05/25HRF Vs Auda1-0
26/04/25HRF Vs Riga0-1
20/04/25ASuper Nova Vs RF1-2
15/04/25AGrobiņa Vs RF1-4
09/04/25HRF Vs Tukums2-0
04/04/25AMetta / LU Vs RF1-0
29/03/25HRF Vs FK Liepaja4-1
15/03/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs RF1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWDL1.10
HomeDWLWD1.24
AwayLLWDL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals2.882.922.84
Over 1.5 %78%76%80%
Over 2.5 %54%60%48%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.201.361.04
Conceded1.681.561.80
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW2.08
HomeWWLWW2.16
AwayWLWWD2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%68%64%
AVG goals3.303.603.00
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %68%68%68%
Over 3.5 %42%48%36%
Scored2.342.721.96
Conceded0.960.881.04
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet36%40%32%
Corners9.449.509.40
Cards3.753.004.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8526+59
3.1
81%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.40.7
-
2Rīgas FSRīgas FS3687
78%
2.4
10039+61
3.9
78%
72%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.81.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3661
50%
1.7
5955+4
3.2
83%
69%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.5
-
4BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3648
36%
1.3
5262-10
3.2
78%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.7
-
5AudaAuda3645
36%
1.2
4449-5
2.6
67%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.4
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3638
22%
1.1
3946-7
2.4
69%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.3
-
7TukumsTukums3636
25%
1.0
3963-24
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.8
-
8GrobiņaGrobiņa3836
24%
0.9
3464-30
2.6
68%
37%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.7
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3632
17%
0.9
4456-12
2.8
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.6
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3631
22%
0.9
3974-35
3.1
78%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.1
-
11JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.5
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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