FK Liepaja are favoured to win, with a 49% chance of triumph, 26% for a draw and 24% for Super Nova to come away with the victory. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals on average, and the most likely exact score is 1-1, which carries a 12.6% probability. In home form, FK Liepaja typically score 2.0 goals and concede 1.0 against weaker opponents, while Super Nova on the road against stronger teams averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5 goals at 77.9%. FK Liepaja’s recent run of WLWWL and a 3-2 win over Riga, combined with Super Nova’s DDLWL and a 1-1 draw with Auda, set the tone for a competitive encounter.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Home win, fell short as FK Liepaja and Super Nova finished 2-2, a draw that surprised the model’s prediction. The model had assigned a 49% chance to a home victory, yet the match ended in a stalemate, proving the selection incorrect. The only other model selection, Over 1.5, hit with a 77.9% probability, confirming that the game delivered more than one goal. FK Liepaja, coming off a win in their last five, extended their recent form, while Super Nova, after a draw, remained in a mixed run. The final score of 2-2 matched the model’s expected total of 2.8 goals, though the exact 2-2 result was not the most likely scoreline.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Liepaja win✗ Miss
49.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Super Nova win✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Liepaja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.67
1.62
1.56
1.07
1.79
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
3.00
1.00
3.67
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.43
1.57
1.14
1.14
1.71
vs Weaker (10)
1.80
1.20
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Super Nova
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.73
2.73
0.60
1.73
0.87
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
0.92
2.00
0.67
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (13)
3.08
0.85
3.83
0.83
2.43
0.86
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.8%
Under 2.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.6%
Under 3.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
9.2%
2-0
8.7%
0-0
7.3%
1-2
6.4%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
5.4%
FK Liepaja goals ↓
Super Nova goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
5.7%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
1
9.2%
13%
6.4%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.7%
9.6%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.8%
5.4%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.0%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Liepaja goals (down), columns = Super Nova goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Riga
2.44
Rīgas FS
2.42
FK Liepaja
1.69
BFC Daugavpils
1.33
Auda
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.06
Tukums
1.00
Grobiņa
0.95
Super Nova
0.89
Metta / LU
0.86
JDFS Alberts
0.50
FK Liepaja is 0.81 points better than Super Nova in terms of average points per game (1.69 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.78
Riga
2.36
FK Liepaja
1.64
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
Super Nova
1.22
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.08
Metta / LU
1.08
Tukums
1.08
Grobiņa
0.89
JDFS Alberts
0.00
FK Liepaja is 0.42 goals better than Super Nova in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.22).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
JDFS Alberts
0.50
Riga
0.72
Rīgas FS
1.08
FS Jelgava
1.28
Auda
1.36
FK Liepaja
1.53
Super Nova
1.56
Grobiņa
1.68
BFC Daugavpils
1.72
Tukums
1.75
Metta / LU
2.06
FK Liepaja is 0.03 goals better than Super Nova in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Liepaja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
1.00
0.69
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.67
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.86
0.86
0.86
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.10
1.17
0.00
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Super Nova
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.40
0.33
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
0.42
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.50
vs Similar (13)
1.31
0.62
1.83
0.50
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Liepaja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.03
0.62
0.88
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.57
0.71
0.29
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
1.10
0.83
1.00
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Super Nova
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.30
1.33
0.27
1.13
0.33
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (13)
1.77
0.23
2.00
0.33
1.57
0.14
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.00
0.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja's squad is €2m more valuable than Super Nova's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
FK Liepaja's attack is €1m more valuable than Super Nova's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
FK Liepaja and Super Nova have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
FK Liepaja's defence is €1m more valuable than Super Nova's (€2m vs €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Riga
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
FS Jelgava
Tukums
Grobiņa
Metta / LU
JDFS Alberts