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FK Liepaja vs Super Nova Prediction & Stats

Date: 01/11/2026
Time: 11:00
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Vs
55%
24%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

FK Liepaja are tipped to win the upcoming Virsliga clash against Super Nova, with a 55% chance of victory, 24% for a draw and 22% for an away win. The model expects a total of about 3.1 goals, most likely a 1-1 scoreline with an 11% probability. FK Liepaja, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Super Nova, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.33 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 6.5 (95.9%), Home +2 handicap (91.2%), Under 5.5 (90.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.3%) and Home over 0.5 goals (86.0%). FK Liepaja come into the match after a win, having beaten Riga 3-2, while Super Nova are coming off a draw, having drawn 1-1 with Auda.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Liepaja win
54.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Super Nova win
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L40W13L20W13L12L21W31W01L32WA·SUP09/11H·OGR30/06A·BFC04/07A·FS 26/07A·AUS30/07A·TUK02/08A·SUP09/08H·GRO21/08A·AUD25/08H·RIG31/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.332.151.231.411.41
vs Stronger (5)1.602.402.332.330.502.50
vs Similar (12)1.751.002.330.501.171.50
vs Weaker (13)1.771.231.751.501.781.11
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D22D13L30W21W12L20W12L00D11DA·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11A·TUK01/07H·OGR06/07H·GRO20/07H·FK 09/08H·BFC22/08A·AUD29/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.431.181.291.151.62
vs Stronger (13)1.312.231.292.431.332.00
vs Similar (17)1.060.821.100.501.001.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.8%
Under 2.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.5%
Under 3.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.5%
No
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.3%
1-0
7.5%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
3-0
5.5%
FK Liepaja goals ↓
Super Nova goals →
01234
05.3%4.1%3.0%1.2%0.3%
17.5%11%5.9%2.3%0.7%
28.3%9.8%5.8%2.3%0.7%
35.5%6.4%3.8%1.5%0.4%
42.7%3.2%1.9%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Liepaja goals (down), columns = Super Nova goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
FK Liepaja is 0.54 points better than Super Nova in terms of average points per game (1.88 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
FK Liepaja is 0.83 goals better than Super Nova in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
FK Liepaja is 0.25 goals worse than Super Nova in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Liepaja or Draw
78.5%
Avg Implied -
55%
24%
22%
covers FK Liepaja + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja or Super Nova
76.2%
Avg Implied -
55%
24%
22%
covers FK Liepaja + Super Nova
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Super Nova
45.3%
Avg Implied -
55%
24%
22%
covers Draw + Super Nova
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5
Over
86.0%
Under
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5
Over
58.5%
Under
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5
Over
31.4%
Under
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 3.5
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5
Over
69.2%
Under
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to FK Liepaja, so a minus line means FK Liepaja give that many goals of a start and Super Nova receive them. At -1, FK Liepaja must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Liepaja win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Liepaja)
FK Liepaja -2
15.8%
Draw -2
16.9%
Super Nova +2
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Liepaja)
FK Liepaja -1
32.8%
Draw -1
21.9%
Super Nova +1
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Liepaja)
FK Liepaja +1
78.5%
Draw +1
12.7%
Super Nova -1
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Liepaja)
FK Liepaja +2
91.2%
Draw +2
6.1%
Super Nova -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L30W01L20W12L11D01L10W00D21WA·SUP09/11H·OGR30/06A·BFC04/07A·FS 26/07A·AUS30/07A·TUK02/08A·SUP09/08H·GRO21/08A·AUD25/08H·RIG31/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.601.000.620.760.59
vs Stronger (5)0.601.201.001.330.001.00
vs Similar (12)0.670.331.000.000.330.67
vs Weaker (13)1.150.621.001.001.220.44
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super NovaSuper Nova

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L20W11D00D00D10W00D01LA·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11A·TUK01/07H·OGR06/07H·GRO20/07H·FK 09/08H·BFC22/08A·AUD29/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.730.470.530.381.00
vs Stronger (13)0.541.150.571.000.501.33
vs Similar (17)0.350.410.400.200.290.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W12L00D01L01L20W21W01L11DA·SUP09/11H·OGR30/06A·BFC04/07A·FS 26/07A·AUS30/07A·TUK02/08A·SUP09/08H·GRO21/08A·AUD25/08H·RIG31/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.731.150.620.650.82
vs Stronger (5)1.001.201.331.000.501.50
vs Similar (12)1.080.671.330.500.830.83
vs Weaker (13)0.620.620.750.500.560.67
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super NovaSuper Nova

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W12L10W10W12L20W02L00D10WA·GRO18/10A·BFC25/10H·RĪG02/11H·FK 09/11A·TUK01/07H·OGR06/07H·GRO20/07H·FK 09/08H·BFC22/08A·AUD29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.710.760.770.62
vs Stronger (13)0.771.080.711.430.830.67
vs Similar (17)0.710.410.700.300.710.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.8%-------
Under 6.595.9%-------
Home +2 handicap91.2%-------
Under 5.590.1%-------
Away under 2.5 goals88.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals86.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals86.0%-------
Over 1.583.1%-------
Under 4.579.1%-------
Home or Draw78.5%-------
Home +1 handicap78.5%-------
Home or Away76.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
FK Liepaja's squad is €2m more valuable than Super Nova's (€5m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
FK Liepaja's attack is €1m more valuable than Super Nova's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
FK Liepaja and Super Nova have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
FK Liepaja's defence is €1m more valuable than Super Nova's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
FL wins
1
Draws
2
SN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja vs Super Nova · H/A from FL
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/26ASuper Nova Vs FL1-2
09/11/25ASuper Nova Vs FL3-0
25/08/25HFL Vs Super Nova0-3
17/06/25ASuper Nova Vs FL1-3
25/04/25HFL Vs Super Nova2-2
11/11/23HFL Vs Super Nova2-0
28/08/23ASuper Nova Vs FL0-2
09/06/23HFL Vs Super Nova2-1

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/26HFL Vs Riga3-2
25/08/26AAuda Vs FL1-0
21/08/26HFL Vs Grobiņa3-1
09/08/26ASuper Nova Vs FL1-2
02/08/26ATukums Vs FL2-1
30/07/26AAustria Vienna Vs FL3-1
26/07/26AFS Jelgava Vs FL0-2
04/07/26ABFC Daugavpils Vs FL3-1
30/06/26HFL Vs Ogre United4-0
09/11/25ASuper Nova Vs FL3-0

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26AAuda Vs SN1-1
22/08/26HSN Vs BFC Daugavpils0-0
09/08/26HSN Vs FK Liepaja1-2
20/07/26HSN Vs Grobiņa2-0
06/07/26HSN Vs Ogre United1-2
01/07/26ATukums Vs SN1-2
09/11/25HSN Vs FK Liepaja3-0
02/11/25HSN Vs Rīgas FS1-3
25/10/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs SN2-2
18/10/25AGrobiņa Vs SN0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW1.74
HomeDDWWW2.00
AwayWLLWL1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%57%48%
AVG goals3.243.353.15
Over 1.5 %84%83%85%
Over 2.5 %72%70%74%
Over 3.5 %44%52%37%
Scored1.742.091.44
Conceded1.501.261.70
BTTS62%61%63%
Clean Sheet24%35%15%
Corners11.00-11.00
Cards4.00-4.00
Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDD1.22
HomeWLWLD1.32
AwayLDDWD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals2.742.762.72
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.441.481.40
Conceded1.301.281.32
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS717
71%
2.4
186+12
3.4
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.60.9
-
2RigaRiga716
71%
2.3
218+13
4.1
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7363.01.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja815
62%
1.9
1610+6
3.2
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
4AudaAuda714
57%
2.0
84+4
1.7
57%
14%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.10.6
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils813
50%
1.6
127+5
2.4
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.50.9
-
6Super NovaSuper Nova68
33%
1.3
76+1
2.2
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.0
-
7GrobiņaGrobiņa77
29%
1.0
818-10
3.7
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.12.6
-
8FS JelgavaFS Jelgava76
29%
0.9
812-4
2.9
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.7
-
9Ogre UnitedOgre United74
14%
0.6
721-14
4.0
100%
100%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.03.0
-
10TukumsTukums83
12%
0.4
619-13
3.1
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.82.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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