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FK Liepaja vs Valmiera / BSS Result & Analysis

Date: 12/11/2022
Time: 11:00
Final 0-2
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Vs
27%
24%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Liepaja win✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS win✓ Hit
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L10W22D02L52W32W51W21W41W00DH·RĪG29/08A·VAL04/09A·SUP11/09A·RIG16/09H·SPA01/10A·BFC09/10H·MET15/10A·AUD23/10H·TUK30/10A·RĪG06/11
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.171.861.001.621.31
vs Stronger (8)0.501.250.331.000.601.40
vs Similar (10)1.901.001.751.252.000.83
vs Weaker (12)2.421.252.570.862.201.80
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-770W01L31W61W11D41W21W11D11D61WH·SUP27/08H·FK 04/09H·RIG11/09A·SPA17/09A·BFC02/10A·MET09/10H·AUD15/10A·TUK23/10H·RĪG30/10A·SUP06/11
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.870.802.880.692.860.93
vs Stronger (3)2.670.333.000.502.000.00
vs Similar (11)1.821.091.860.711.751.75
vs Weaker (16)3.620.693.860.713.440.67
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.3%
Under 1.5
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.1%
Under 2.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.3%
Under 3.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.4%
No
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
6.6%
0-2 ✓
6.5%
1-3
6.1%
0-1
5.6%
2-3
4.4%
FK Liepaja goals ↓
Valmiera / BSS goals →
01234
04.3%5.6%6.5%4.3%2.1%
13.8%10%9.3%6.1%3.0%
23.4%6.7%6.6%4.4%2.2%
31.6%3.2%3.1%2.1%1.0%
40.6%1.1%1.1%0.7%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Liepaja goals (down), columns = Valmiera / BSS goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.36
Riga
2.25
Rīgas FS
2.11
FK Liepaja
1.94
Auda
1.50
Tukums
1.06
BFC Daugavpils
0.94
Spartaks Jurmala
0.86
Super Nova
0.56
Metta / LU
0.53
FK Liepaja is 0.42 points worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 2.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.81
Rīgas FS
2.31
FK Liepaja
2.00
Riga
1.89
Auda
1.22
Metta / LU
1.06
Tukums
1.06
Spartaks Jurmala
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
0.83
Super Nova
0.67
FK Liepaja is 0.81 goals worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 2.81).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Valmiera / BSS
0.69
Rīgas FS
0.89
Auda
0.92
FK Liepaja
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Tukums
1.92
Spartaks Jurmala
2.08
Super Nova
2.25
Metta / LU
2.44
FK Liepaja is 0.47 goals worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 0.69).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D01L01L20W21W30W10W20W00DH·RĪG29/08A·VAL04/09A·SUP11/09A·RIG16/09H·SPA01/10A·BFC09/10H·MET15/10A·AUD23/10H·TUK30/10A·RĪG06/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.400.790.210.500.56
vs Stronger (8)0.250.500.000.330.400.60
vs Similar (10)0.700.400.750.500.670.33
vs Weaker (12)0.830.331.140.000.400.80
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D10W31W11D10W11D01L10W20WH·SUP27/08H·FK 04/09H·RIG11/09A·SPA17/09A·BFC02/10A·MET09/10H·AUD15/10A·TUK23/10H·RĪG30/10A·SUP06/11
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.401.120.191.210.64
vs Stronger (3)1.670.002.000.001.000.00
vs Similar (11)0.550.640.430.290.751.25
vs Weaker (16)1.500.311.570.141.440.44
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W21W01L32W11D21W11D21W00DH·RĪG29/08A·VAL04/09A·SUP11/09A·RIG16/09H·SPA01/10A·BFC09/10H·MET15/10A·AUD23/10H·TUK30/10A·RĪG06/11
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.771.070.791.120.75
vs Stronger (8)0.250.750.330.670.200.80
vs Similar (10)1.200.601.000.751.330.50
vs Weaker (12)1.580.921.430.861.801.00
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W01L21W30W00D31W10W10W01L41WH·SUP27/08H·FK 04/09H·RIG11/09A·SPA17/09A·BFC02/10A·MET09/10H·AUD15/10A·TUK23/10H·RĪG30/10A·SUP06/11
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.700.401.750.501.640.29
vs Stronger (3)1.000.331.000.501.000.00
vs Similar (11)1.270.451.430.431.000.50
vs Weaker (16)2.120.382.290.572.000.22
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards78.6%--------
Under 5.5 cards75.8%--------
Over 8.5 corners72.3%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
FL wins
0
Draws
2
V/B wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja vs Valmiera / BSS · H/A from FL
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/22AValmiera / BSS Vs FL0-1
28/05/22HFL Vs Valmiera / BSS1-3
27/04/22AValmiera / BSS Vs FL3-0

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/11/22ARīgas FS Vs FL0-0
30/10/22HFL Vs Tukums4-1
23/10/22AAuda Vs FL1-2
15/10/22HFL Vs Metta / LU5-1
09/10/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs FL2-3
01/10/22HFL Vs Spartaks Jurmala5-2
16/09/22ARiga Vs FL2-0
11/09/22ASuper Nova Vs FL2-2
04/09/22AValmiera / BSS Vs FL0-1
29/08/22HFL Vs Rīgas FS1-2

Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/11/22ASuper Nova Vs V/B1-6
30/10/22HV/B Vs Rīgas FS1-1
23/10/22ATukums Vs V/B1-1
15/10/22HV/B Vs Auda2-1
09/10/22AMetta / LU Vs V/B1-4
02/10/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs V/B1-1
17/09/22ASpartaks Jurmala Vs V/B1-6
11/09/22HV/B Vs Riga3-1
04/09/22HV/B Vs FK Liepaja0-1
27/08/22HV/B Vs Super Nova7-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWD1.87
HomeWLWWW1.89
AwayDLWWD1.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%58%55%
AVG goals3.103.053.15
Over 1.5 %74%68%80%
Over 2.5 %64%58%70%
Over 3.5 %44%42%45%
Scored1.922.001.85
Conceded1.181.051.30
BTTS59%63%55%
Clean Sheet28%32%25%
Corners9.5010.508.50
Cards4.004.503.50
Valmiera / BSS
Valmiera / BSS
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDW2.22
HomeWLWWD2.32
AwayWDWDW2.11
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %68%74%61%
AVG goals3.543.533.56
Over 1.5 %89%84%94%
Over 2.5 %68%68%67%
Over 3.5 %43%37%50%
Scored2.732.842.61
Conceded0.810.680.94
BTTS62%53%72%
Clean Sheet35%42%28%
Corners12.508.0017.00
Cards4.002.006.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3685
72%
2.4
10125+76
3.5
89%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.7
-
2RigaRiga3681
72%
2.2
6823+45
2.5
72%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7361.90.6
-
3Rīgas FSRīgas FS3676
61%
2.1
8332+51
3.2
86%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.30.9
-
4FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3670
58%
1.9
7242+30
3.2
78%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
5AudaAuda3654
44%
1.5
4433+11
2.1
64%
39%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.20.9
-
6TukumsTukums3638
31%
1.1
3869-31
3.0
78%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.9
-
7BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3634
25%
0.9
3067-37
2.7
72%
47%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.9
-
8Spartaks JurmalaSpartaks Jurmala3631
25%
0.9
3775-38
3.1
86%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.1
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3620
11%
0.6
2481-57
2.9
75%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.2
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3619
11%
0.5
3888-50
3.5
89%
61%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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