The defensive figures set the tone: FK Neftekhimik, at home, averages 1.25 goals per match while conceding just 0.5, whereas KAMAZ on the road averages 0.5 scored and 1.21 conceded against similar opposition. The model predicts a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected total of 1.8 goals, most likely 2 in total. The single most probable scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 17.8% chance. Home victory is the favourite, with a 46% chance, a draw 34% and an away win 20%. The suggested selections are Under 3.5 (89.1%), Under 5.5 cards (82.0%), Under 11.5 corners (81.9%), Under 2.5 (73.1%), Under 10.5 corners (72.6%) and Over 2.5 cards (72.6%). Each pick is listed with its exact probability. The match is expected to stay tight, with the home side’s defensive solidity giving them the edge.
Results analysis
The match saw FK Neftekhimik extend a run of mixed results, while KAMAZ returned to form after a win. The final score was 2-0, a home win that matched the model’s pick. The model had chosen a home win with a 46% probability, and it was correct. The suggested selections were all hit: Under 3.5 goals at 89.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 82.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 81.9%, Under 2.5 goals at 73.1%, Under 10.5 corners at 72.6% and Over 2.5 cards at 72.6%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and no other figures were repeated.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Neftekhimik win✓ Hit
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
34.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ win✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Neftekhimik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.97
1.13
1.00
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
3.00
0.67
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.07
0.74
1.25
0.50
0.93
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.07
1.21
0.86
0.56
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
-
-
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (28)
0.86
1.04
1.21
0.86
0.50
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
54.9%
Under 1.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.9%
Under 2.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.9%
Under 3.5
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
34.1%
No
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.8%
1-0
17.6%
1-1
13.7%
2-0 ✓
10.7%
0-1
9.7%
2-1
7.1%
1-2
4.1%
3-0
4.1%
FK Neftekhimik goals ↓
KAMAZ goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
9.7%
3.6%
0.8%
0.1%
1
18%
14%
4.1%
0.9%
0.1%
2
11%
7.1%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
3
4.1%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.2%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Neftekhimik goals (down), columns = KAMAZ goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Khimki
1.94
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.79
Akron
1.74
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Rodina Moskva
1.62
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Enisey
1.50
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.44
Tyumen
1.41
Torpedo Moskva
1.38
FK Neftekhimik
1.24
Ska-khabarovsk
1.21
KAMAZ
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.12
Chernomorets
1.03
Leningradets
1.00
Volgar Astrakhan
1.00
Urozhay
0.68
FK Neftekhimik is 0.03 points better than KAMAZ in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Khimki
1.65
Enisey
1.62
Rodina Moskva
1.56
Akron
1.41
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.15
Arsenal Tula
1.15
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.09
Tyumen
1.06
Ska-khabarovsk
0.97
Torpedo Moskva
0.97
FK Sokol Saratov
0.94
FK Neftekhimik
0.91
KAMAZ
0.88
Chernomorets
0.88
Volgar Astrakhan
0.85
Leningradets
0.79
Urozhay
0.59
FK Neftekhimik is 0.03 goals better than KAMAZ in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.56
Arsenal Tula
0.74
Akron
0.76
Rodina Moskva
0.91
Torpedo Moskva
0.97
Tyumen
1.03
FK Neftekhimik
1.03
Ska-khabarovsk
1.06
KAMAZ
1.06
Chernomorets
1.12
Khimki
1.15
Enisey
1.18
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.21
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24
Leningradets
1.29
Volgar Astrakhan
1.29
FK Sokol Saratov
1.56
Urozhay
1.56
FK Neftekhimik is 0.03 goals better than KAMAZ in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FK Neftekhimik
For 4.9 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
KAMAZ
For 5.2 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Neftekhimik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.8
10.1
2.0
1.2
2.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
9.0
8.3
11.0
1.2
1.3
1.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
10.7
11.9
10.0
2.1
1.1
3.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
50%
42%
26%
16%
36%
-
-
-
% under line
55%
50%
58%
74%
84%
64%
-
-
-
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
9.8
7.0
3.3
3.9
2.6
-
-
-
vs Stronger (7)
10.0
10.0
-
2.1
3.3
1.2
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
8.6
9.7
7.0
3.5
4.0
2.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
35%
50%
12%
48%
52%
44%
-
-
-
% under line
65%
50%
88%
52%
48%
56%
-
-
-
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Shinnik Yaroslavl
10.7
Arsenal Tula
10.4
FK Neftekhimik
10.1
Volgar Astrakhan
9.7
Enisey
9.6
Chernomorets
9.6
Akron
9.6
Urozhay
9.3
Khimki
9.1
FK Sokol Saratov
9.0
Tyumen
8.8
Rodina Moskva
8.6
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.6
KAMAZ
8.6
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Leningradets
8.5
Ska-khabarovsk
8.4
Dinamo Makhachkala
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
KAMAZ
6.3
Rodina Moskva
4.8
Akron
4.8
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.7
Khimki
4.7
Urozhay
4.7
Enisey
4.7
Torpedo Moskva
4.6
Volgar Astrakhan
4.5
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
4.3
FK Neftekhimik
4.2
Tyumen
4.2
Ska-khabarovsk
4.1
Chernomorets
3.9
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Leningradets
3.6
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.4
FK Sokol Saratov
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rodina Moskva
30.5
Enisey
28.5
Khimki
25.3
Torpedo Moskva
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
39.0%
Under 9.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.0%
Under 3.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Neftekhimik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.40
0.47
0.33
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.33
0.50
0.17
0.53
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.53
0.57
0.36
0.19
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (28)
0.36
0.54
0.57
0.36
0.14
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Neftekhimik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
0.33
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.41
0.75
0.33
0.40
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (KAMAZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KAMAZ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.64
0.50
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.50
0.50
0.64
0.50
0.36
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAMAZ over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
RM (26)
€17m
TM (23)
€11m
AT (26)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
FK Neftekhimik and KAMAZ have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKR (9)
€11m
DM (13)
€9m
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
AT (8)
€3m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
FK Neftekhimik and KAMAZ have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKR (6)
€6m
RM (4)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
FK Neftekhimik and KAMAZ have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
TM (9)
€4m
AT (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FK Neftekhimik and KAMAZ have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Russia: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →