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FK Trakai vs Hegelmann Litauen Result & Analysis

Date: 27/05/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 0-4
FK Trakai
FK Trakai
Vs
32%
33%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Trakai win✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen win✓ Hit
35.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D00D10W13L10W11D13L02L05L11DA·DŽI01/04H·BAN05/04A·HEG09/04A·KAU15/04H·SUD18/04A·ŠIA22/04A·PAN29/04H·FK 03/05A·DAI13/05H·DŽI21/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.501.121.381.001.64
vs Stronger (7)0.712.291.002.330.502.25
vs Similar (21)1.051.331.081.171.001.56
vs Weaker (2)2.500.502.001.003.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-650W24L01L01L32W01L60W02L23L50WA·BAN31/03H·PAN04/04H·FK 09/04A·FK 16/04H·KAU19/04A·DAI23/04H·SUD28/04A·DŽI02/05H·ŠIA12/05H·BAN19/05
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.232.471.270.871.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.351.652.001.730.561.56
vs Weaker (10)2.300.403.750.001.330.67
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%14%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.4%
Under 1.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.1%
Under 2.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.2%
Under 3.5
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.6%
No
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.6%
0-1
11.9%
1-0
11.1%
1-2
7.3%
0-2
7.2%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
6.3%
FK Trakai goals ↓
Hegelmann Litauen goals →
01234
014%12%7.2%2.6%0.7%
111%15%7.3%2.6%0.7%
26.3%6.9%3.7%1.3%0.4%
32.1%2.3%1.3%0.5%0.1%
40.5%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Trakai goals (down), columns = Hegelmann Litauen goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Panevėžys
2.42
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.64
Šiauliai
1.64
Kauno Žalgiris
1.64
Banga
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
0.97
Dainava
0.86
Džiugas Telšiai
0.84
FK Trakai
0.69
Be1 NFA
0.50
FK Trakai is 0.94 points worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of average points per game (0.69 vs 1.64).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.86
Panevėžys
1.78
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.69
Šiauliai
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
0.78
Džiugas Telšiai
0.74
FK Trakai
0.72
Dainava
0.69
Banga
0.61
Be1 NFA
0.50
FK Trakai is 1.00 goals worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals scored per game (0.72 vs 1.72).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.39
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.78
Be1 NFA
1.00
Šiauliai
1.00
Dainava
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Banga
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.45
Suduva Marijampole
1.67
FK Trakai
1.72
FK Trakai is 0.53 goals worse than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.19).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D00D02L10W00D10W00D01L00DA·DŽI01/04H·BAN05/04A·HEG09/04A·KAU15/04H·SUD18/04A·ŠIA22/04A·PAN29/04H·FK 03/05A·DAI13/05H·DŽI21/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.600.440.620.290.57
vs Stronger (7)0.141.000.330.670.001.25
vs Similar (21)0.480.480.500.580.440.33
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W21W00D00D01L00D30W01L22D30WA·BAN31/03H·PAN04/04H·FK 09/04A·FK 16/04H·KAU19/04A·DAI23/04H·SUD28/04A·DŽI02/05H·ŠIA12/05H·BAN19/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.531.270.530.530.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.750.751.090.730.330.78
vs Weaker (10)1.200.101.750.000.830.17
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D10W11D00D11D03L02L04L11DA·DŽI01/04H·BAN05/04A·HEG09/04A·KAU15/04H·SUD18/04A·ŠIA22/04A·PAN29/04H·FK 03/05A·DAI13/05H·DŽI21/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.900.690.750.711.07
vs Stronger (7)0.571.290.671.670.501.00
vs Similar (21)0.570.860.580.580.561.22
vs Weaker (2)2.500.002.000.003.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W03L01L01L31W01L30W01L01L20WA·BAN31/03H·PAN04/04H·FK 09/04A·FK 16/04H·KAU19/04A·DAI23/04H·SUD28/04A·DŽI02/05H·ŠIA12/05H·BAN19/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.701.200.730.330.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.600.900.911.000.220.78
vs Weaker (10)1.100.302.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
FT wins
3
Draws
1
HL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Trakai vs Hegelmann Litauen · H/A from FT
DateH/AGameScore
09/04/23AHegelmann Litauen Vs FT0-1
23/11/22AHegelmann Litauen Vs FT2-2
11/09/22HFT Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-0
25/06/22HFT Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-3
16/04/22AHegelmann Litauen Vs FT1-1

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/23HFT Vs Džiugas Telšiai1-1
13/05/23ADainava Vs FT5-0
03/05/23HFT Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-2
29/04/23APanevėžys Vs FT3-1
22/04/23AŠiauliai Vs FT1-1
18/04/23HFT Vs Suduva Marijampole1-0
15/04/23AKauno Žalgiris Vs FT3-1
09/04/23AHegelmann Litauen Vs FT0-1
05/04/23HFT Vs Banga0-0
01/04/23ADžiugas Telšiai Vs FT1-1

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/05/23HHL Vs Banga5-0
12/05/23HHL Vs Šiauliai2-3
02/05/23ADžiugas Telšiai Vs HL2-0
28/04/23HHL Vs Suduva Marijampole6-0
23/04/23ADainava Vs HL1-0
19/04/23HHL Vs Kauno Žalgiris3-2
16/04/23AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs HL1-0
09/04/23HHL Vs FK Trakai0-1
04/04/23HHL Vs Panevėžys2-4
31/03/23ABanga Vs HL0-5

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Trakai
FK Trakai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLD1.40
HomeDDWLD1.52
AwayWLDLL1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%40%36%
AVG goals2.462.362.56
Over 1.5 %68%68%68%
Over 2.5 %44%44%44%
Over 3.5 %28%24%32%
Scored1.201.241.16
Conceded1.261.121.40
BTTS42%40%44%
Clean Sheet36%40%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLW1.58
HomeLWWLW1.96
AwayLWLLL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%58%29%
AVG goals2.843.462.17
Over 1.5 %76%88%62%
Over 2.5 %50%62%38%
Over 3.5 %36%50%21%
Scored1.822.461.12
Conceded1.021.001.04
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet40%46%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PanevėžysPanevėžys3687
72%
2.4
6414+50
2.2
67%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.80.4
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3675
64%
2.1
6728+39
2.6
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.90.8
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3659
42%
1.6
6140+21
2.8
78%
44%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.71.1
-
4Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3659
50%
1.6
6243+19
2.9
72%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.2
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
69%
36%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.31.0
-
6BangaBanga3636
28%
1.0
2252-30
2.1
58%
31%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.61.4
-
7Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3635
28%
1.0
2860-32
2.4
72%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.81.7
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3832
16%
0.8
2855-27
2.2
68%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.71.4
-
9DainavaDainava3631
19%
0.9
2540-15
1.8
56%
33%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai3625
14%
0.7
2662-36
2.4
64%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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