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FK Trakai vs Panevėžys Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 1-3
FK Trakai
FK Trakai
Vs
22%
23%
55%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Trakai win✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win✓ Hit
55.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-524L14L12L10W12L02L15L02L00D03LH·HEG24/05A·SUD01/06H·BAN14/06H·ŠIA19/06A·DŽI25/06H·DAI29/06H·KAU05/07H·ŠIA11/07A·SUD20/07A·HEG28/07
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.771.731.801.001.73
vs Stronger (5)1.002.601.332.670.502.50
vs Similar (21)1.241.761.551.640.901.90
vs Weaker (4)2.500.755.001.001.670.67
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D30W12L11D20W03L24L12L30W20WA·BAN23/05A·GAR27/05A·ŠIA01/06A·DŽI13/06H·DAI19/06A·KAU24/06H·FK 29/06H·SUD07/07A·DAI14/07H·ŠIA20/07
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.131.401.132.271.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.381.481.641.451.101.50
vs Weaker (9)2.890.330.750.254.600.40
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.4%
Under 1.5
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.0%
Under 2.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.8%
Under 3.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.1%
No
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.0%
0-1
6.9%
1-3 ✓
6.6%
2-2
5.9%
2-1
5.8%
0-3
5.4%
FK Trakai goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
01234
04.9%6.9%8.0%5.4%2.8%
13.8%11%9.8%6.6%3.3%
22.9%5.8%5.9%4.0%2.0%
31.2%2.4%2.4%1.6%0.8%
40.4%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Trakai goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kauno Žalgiris
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Suduva Marijampole
1.64
Šiauliai
1.44
Panevėžys
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.28
Banga
1.17
FK Trakai
0.79
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
Dainava
0.50
FK Trakai is 0.57 points worse than Panevėžys in terms of average points per game (0.79 vs 1.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kauno Žalgiris
1.86
Šiauliai
1.64
Hegelmann Litauen
1.56
Panevėžys
1.56
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Banga
1.06
Džiugas Telšiai
1.03
FK Trakai
1.03
Dainava
0.75
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.50
FK Trakai is 0.53 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.72
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Banga
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Džiugas Telšiai
1.25
Panevėžys
1.36
Šiauliai
1.47
FK Trakai
1.97
Dainava
2.11
FK Trakai is 0.61 goals worse than Panevėžys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.36).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D03L00D00D10W02L03L01L00D01LH·HEG24/05A·SUD01/06H·BAN14/06H·ŠIA19/06A·DŽI25/06H·DAI29/06H·KAU05/07H·ŠIA11/07A·SUD20/07A·HEG28/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.900.871.000.270.80
vs Stronger (5)0.201.600.332.000.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.520.860.730.730.301.00
vs Weaker (4)1.250.254.001.000.330.00
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D10W00D01L22D12L20W10WA·BAN23/05A·GAR27/05A·ŠIA01/06A·DŽI13/06H·DAI19/06A·KAU24/06H·FK 29/06H·SUD07/07A·DAI14/07H·ŠIA20/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.500.600.601.000.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.570.620.730.730.400.50
vs Weaker (9)1.330.220.250.252.200.20
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D12L10W02L00D12L01L00D02LH·HEG24/05A·SUD01/06H·BAN14/06H·ŠIA19/06A·DŽI25/06H·DAI29/06H·KAU05/07H·ŠIA11/07A·SUD20/07A·HEG28/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.870.870.800.730.93
vs Stronger (5)0.801.001.000.670.501.50
vs Similar (21)0.710.900.820.910.600.90
vs Weaker (4)1.250.501.000.001.330.67
Clean sheet %40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W12L01L20W02L02L00D10W10WA·BAN23/05A·GAR27/05A·ŠIA01/06A·DŽI13/06H·DAI19/06A·KAU24/06H·FK 29/06H·SUD07/07A·DAI14/07H·ŠIA20/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.630.800.531.270.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.810.860.910.730.701.00
vs Weaker (9)1.560.110.500.002.400.20
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
NK (1)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
NK (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
FT wins
0
Draws
5
PAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Trakai vs Panevėžys · H/A from FT
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/25APanevėžys Vs FT3-0
05/04/25HFT Vs Panevėžys3-1
02/09/23HFT Vs Panevėžys0-2
30/06/23APanevėžys Vs FT1-0
29/04/23APanevėžys Vs FT3-1
12/03/23HFT Vs Panevėžys0-4
13/11/22HFT Vs Panevėžys2-1
07/09/22APanevėžys Vs FT0-1

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/07/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs FT3-0
20/07/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs FT0-0
11/07/25HFT Vs Šiauliai0-2
05/07/25HFT Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-5
29/06/25HFT Vs Dainava0-2
25/06/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs FT2-1
19/06/25HFT Vs Šiauliai1-0
14/06/25HFT Vs Banga1-2
01/06/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs FT4-1
24/05/25HFT Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-4

PanevėžysPanevėžys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/25HPAN Vs Šiauliai2-0
14/07/25ADainava Vs PAN0-3
07/07/25HPAN Vs Suduva Marijampole1-2
29/06/25HPAN Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-4
24/06/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs PAN3-0
19/06/25HPAN Vs Dainava2-0
13/06/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs PAN1-1
01/06/25AŠiauliai Vs PAN2-1
27/05/25AGarliava Vs PAN0-3
23/05/25ABanga Vs PAN1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Trakai
FK Trakai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL1.60
HomeLWLLL1.58
AwayLLLDL1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%46%50%
AVG goals3.063.462.62
Over 1.5 %76%85%67%
Over 2.5 %62%69%54%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored1.742.081.38
Conceded1.321.381.25
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet34%35%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Panevėžys
Panevėžys
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWW1.30
HomeWWLLW1.24
AwayWLDLW1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%36%32%
AVG goals2.842.323.36
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %58%48%68%
Over 3.5 %28%16%40%
Scored1.541.121.96
Conceded1.301.201.40
BTTS48%32%64%
Clean Sheet36%44%28%
Corners---
Cards4.003.005.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3675
61%
2.1
6726+41
2.6
69%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.90.7
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
58%
1.9
5643+13
2.8
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.2
-
3FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3662
47%
1.7
5441+13
2.6
81%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.51.1
-
4Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
64%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.0
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3652
39%
1.4
5953+6
3.1
81%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.61.5
-
6PanevėžysPanevėžys3649
39%
1.4
5649+7
2.9
81%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.61.4
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3646
36%
1.3
3745-8
2.3
64%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.01.2
-
8BangaBanga3642
31%
1.2
3836+2
2.1
58%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.11.0
-
9FK TrakaiFK Trakai3830
18%
0.8
3975-36
3.0
82%
58%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10DainavaDainava3618
8%
0.5
2776-49
2.9
89%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
11Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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