The match between FK Trakai and Panevėžys is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 35 % for a home victory, 28 % for a draw and 38 % for an away win, making Panevėžys the slight favourite. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, with the most likely total being two goals at a 25 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13 % probability.
FK Trakai, playing at home against a side of similar strength, averages 0.91 goals scored and 2.18 conceded. Panevėžys, on the road against a comparable opponent, averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. The recent form is a mixed bag: Trakai come off a 0-4 loss to Kauno Žalgiris, while Panevėžys return from a 0-2 defeat to Suduva Marijampole after two straight losses.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2 %), Under 6.5 (97.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.2 %), Under 5.5 (93.3 %), Under 4.5 (84.5 %), Home under 2.5 goals (83.9 %) and Away +2 handicap (83.6 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Trakai win
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys win
42.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Trakai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
2.03
0.93
2.00
0.60
2.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
3.50
0.33
3.67
0.67
3.33
vs Similar (22)
0.82
1.77
1.00
1.64
0.64
1.91
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.07
1.25
0.58
1.89
1.39
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.41
1.14
1.22
0.44
1.54
1.62
vs Weaker (8)
2.25
0.88
1.33
1.00
2.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.7%
No
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
9.1%
0-1
7.8%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.9%
0-0
6.9%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
5.9%
FK Trakai goals ↓
Panevėžys goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
7.8%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
1
6.3%
13%
9.1%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.9%
7.6%
5.9%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.1%
3.3%
2.6%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Trakai goals (down), columns = Panevėžys goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Trakai or Draw
57.8%
Avg Implied -
31%
27%
42%
covers FK Trakai + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai or Panevėžys
72.9%
Avg Implied -
31%
27%
42%
covers FK Trakai + Panevėžys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Panevėžys
69.3%
Avg Implied -
31%
27%
42%
covers Draw + Panevėžys
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5
Over
72.8%
Under
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5
Over
37.4%
Under
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5
Over
79.0%
Under
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5
Over
46.2%
Under
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FK Trakai, so a minus line means FK Trakai give that many goals of a start and Panevėžys receive them. At -1, FK Trakai must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Trakai win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Trakai)
FK Trakai -2
4.7%
Draw -2
9.1%
Panevėžys +2
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Trakai)
FK Trakai -1
13.8%
Draw -1
16.9%
Panevėžys +1
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Trakai)
FK Trakai +1
57.8%
Draw +1
20.4%
Panevėžys -1
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Trakai)
FK Trakai +2
78.2%
Draw +2
13.0%
Panevėžys -2
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Trakai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.10
0.40
1.20
0.20
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
2.00
0.00
2.33
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.32
0.91
0.45
0.91
0.18
0.91
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.58
0.17
0.94
0.61
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.50
0.56
0.11
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.25
0.67
0.33
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Trakai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.93
0.53
0.80
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.50
0.33
1.33
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.86
0.55
0.73
0.45
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Panevėžys
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
0.67
0.42
0.94
0.78
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.64
0.67
0.33
0.77
0.85
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.62
0.67
0.67
1.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
TransINVEST Vilnius
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai