This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
1.29
1.29
1.12
1.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.60
1.00
1.67
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.32
1.44
1.22
1.15
1.38
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.4%
Under 1.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.5%
Under 2.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.2%
Under 3.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-2 ✓
8.8%
2-1
7.8%
0-1
7.7%
0-0
7.1%
1-0
6.7%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
5.8%
FK Trakai goals ↓
Šiauliai goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
7.7%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
1
6.7%
13%
8.8%
4.4%
1.6%
2
5.2%
7.8%
5.8%
2.9%
1.1%
3
2.3%
3.4%
2.6%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.9%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Trakai goals (down), columns = Šiauliai goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hegelmann Litauen
2.60
Kauno Žalgiris
2.25
Džiugas Telšiai
2.25
Atmosfera
2.25
Banga
2.20
Alternatyvus FK
2.00
Viltis Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.00
FKS Ukmergė
2.00
Nemunas
2.00
Babrungas
2.00
Ekranas
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Minija
2.00
Jonava
2.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Sendvaris
1.50
Dembava
1.50
VGTU Vilkai
1.50
Euforija
1.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
1.50
BFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Be1 NFA
1.50
Šiauliai
1.33
Klaipėdos FM
1.33
Nevėžis
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Vilnius FA
0.99
Cementininkas Akmenė
0.99
Pempininkai Gargždai
0.99
Narjanta Kupiškis
0.99
Ataka Vilnius
0.99
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Utenis Utena
0.00
Tera
0.00
Venta
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Geležinis Vilkas
0.00
Fortūna Kaunas
0.00
Panevėžys
0.00
Ave.Ko
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.00
Dainava
0.00
Sveikata
0.00
FK Trakai is 0.67 points better than Šiauliai in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
VGTU Vilkai
5.50
Ekranas
5.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
4.67
FKS Ukmergė
4.33
Alternatyvus FK
4.00
Dembava
4.00
Tauras
4.00
Kauno Žalgiris
3.75
Klaipėdos FM
3.67
Babrungas
3.67
Sendvaris
3.00
Euforija
3.00
FK Trakai
3.00
Jonava
3.00
Banga
2.60
Džiugas Telšiai
2.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Garliava
2.50
Atmosfera
2.50
Hegelmann Litauen
2.20
Šiauliai
2.00
BFA
2.00
Minija
2.00
Vilnius FA
1.83
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.83
Pempininkai Gargždai
1.83
Narjanta Kupiškis
1.83
Ataka Vilnius
1.83
Nemunas
1.67
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Viltis Vilnius
1.50
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas
1.00
Šilutė
1.00
Trivartis Vilnius
1.00
Geležinis Vilkas
1.00
Fortūna Kaunas
1.00
Panevėžys
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.00
Sveikata
1.00
Nevėžis
1.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Utenis Utena
0.00
Tera
0.00
Venta
0.00
Ave.Ko
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Dainava
0.00
FK Trakai is 1.00 goals better than Šiauliai in terms of goals scored per game (3.00 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alternatyvus FK
0.50
Kauno Žalgiris
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.50
Minija
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen
0.60
Ekranas
0.67
Banga
0.80
Viltis Vilnius
1.00
VGTU Vilkai
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.00
Atmosfera
1.25
Šiauliai
1.33
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.33
FKS Ukmergė
1.33
Jonava
1.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.50
Klaipėdos FM
1.67
Šilutė
2.00
Fortūna Kaunas
2.00
Panevėžys
2.00
Babrungas
2.00
Tauras
2.00
Dainava
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Nevėžis
2.33
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Garliava
2.50
Sendvaris
3.00
Nemunas
3.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
3.00
BFA
3.00
Sveikata
3.00
Vilnius FA
3.15
Cementininkas Akmenė
3.15
Pempininkai Gargždai
3.15
Narjanta Kupiškis
3.15
Ataka Vilnius
3.15
Dembava
3.50
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas
4.00
Venta
4.00
Širvėna Biržai
5.00
Tera
5.00
Geležinis Vilkas
5.00
Saned Joniškis
5.00
Euforija
5.50
Utenis Utena
7.00
Ave.Ko
8.00
Utenos Utena
9.00
Trivartis Vilnius
10.00
FK Trakai is 0.67 goals worse than Šiauliai in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Trakai or Draw✗ Miss
59.8%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
40%
covers FK Trakai + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai or Šiauliai✓ Hit
72.6%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
40%
covers FK Trakai + Šiauliai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Šiauliai✓ Hit
67.6%
Avg Implied -
32%
27%
40%
covers Draw + Šiauliai
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.4%
Under
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.1%
Under
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.6%
Under
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.1%
Under
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FK Trakai, so a minus line means FK Trakai give that many goals of a start and Šiauliai receive them. At -1, FK Trakai must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Trakai win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Trakai)Actual: Šiauliai
FK Trakai -2
5.2%
Draw -2
9.6%
Šiauliai +2
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Trakai)Actual: Šiauliai
FK Trakai -1
14.8%
Draw -1
17.6%
Šiauliai +1
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Trakai)Actual: Draw
FK Trakai +1
59.8%
Draw +1
20.0%
Šiauliai -1
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Trakai)Actual: FK Trakai
FK Trakai +2
79.8%
Draw +2
12.3%
Šiauliai -2
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Trakai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.47
1.33
0.47
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.57
1.00
0.33
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.21
1.86
0.29
1.00
0.14
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.79
0.43
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Trakai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.43
1.20
0.53
0.87
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.57
1.33
0.83
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.36
1.14
0.43
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Šiauliai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Šiauliai
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.50
0.86
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.82
0.44
0.89
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šiauliai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: A Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →