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FK Trakai vs Suduva Marijampole Result & Analysis

Date: 09/10/2022
Time: 14:55
Final 2-3
FK Trakai
FK Trakai
Vs
36%
31%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Trakai win✗ Miss
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole win✓ Hit
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W31W02L15L12L10W21W10W00D13LH·DŽI22/07H·ŠIA30/07A·KAU07/08H·FK 14/08A·SUD21/08A·BAN26/08H·JON03/09A·PAN07/09H·HEG11/09A·FK 18/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.101.501.001.191.19
vs Stronger (7)0.572.000.672.330.501.75
vs Similar (20)1.400.901.330.671.451.09
vs Weaker (3)2.670.333.500.501.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D41W00D21W20W21W12L20W01L02LA·KAU02/08H·PAN07/08A·BAN14/08H·FK 21/08A·JON27/08H·HEG06/09A·DŽI10/09H·BAN18/09A·FK 27/09A·PAN02/10
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.031.601.001.201.07
vs Stronger (8)0.751.380.332.331.000.80
vs Similar (22)1.640.911.920.671.301.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.8%
Under 2.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 3.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
10.8%
1-0
10.1%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
6.3%
FK Trakai goals ↓
Suduva Marijampole goals →
01234
011%9.6%6.3%2.4%0.7%
110%14%7.5%2.9%0.8%
26.9%7.9%4.6%1.7%0.5%
32.8%3.2%1.8%0.7%0.2%
40.8%1.0%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Trakai goals (down), columns = Suduva Marijampole goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.75
Panevėžys
1.72
Hegelmann Litauen
1.69
FK Trakai
1.64
Suduva Marijampole
1.53
Šiauliai
1.39
Banga
0.83
Džiugas Telšiai
0.75
Jonava
0.08
FK Trakai is 0.11 points better than Suduva Marijampole in terms of average points per game (1.64 vs 1.53).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.36
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.53
FK Trakai
1.47
Panevėžys
1.39
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Šiauliai
1.08
Džiugas Telšiai
0.94
Banga
0.92
Jonava
0.33
FK Trakai is 0.14 goals better than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.75
Panevėžys
0.86
Hegelmann Litauen
0.89
Kauno Žalgiris
1.03
Šiauliai
1.08
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
FK Trakai
1.14
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.86
Jonava
2.86
FK Trakai is 0.03 goals worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W01L12L11D10W01L00D00D02LH·DŽI22/07H·ŠIA30/07A·KAU07/08H·FK 14/08A·SUD21/08A·BAN26/08H·JON03/09A·PAN07/09H·HEG11/09A·FK 18/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.530.570.500.440.56
vs Stronger (7)0.141.000.331.000.001.00
vs Similar (20)0.550.400.560.330.550.45
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W20W00D11D20W10W01L20W01L00DA·KAU02/08H·PAN07/08A·BAN14/08H·FK 21/08A·JON27/08H·HEG06/09A·DŽI10/09H·BAN18/09A·FK 27/09A·PAN02/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.370.870.330.600.40
vs Stronger (8)0.750.620.330.671.000.60
vs Similar (22)0.730.271.000.250.400.30
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D01L03L01L00D20W10W00D11DH·DŽI22/07H·ŠIA30/07A·KAU07/08H·FK 14/08A·SUD21/08A·BAN26/08H·JON03/09A·PAN07/09H·HEG11/09A·FK 18/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.570.930.500.750.62
vs Stronger (7)0.431.000.331.330.500.75
vs Similar (20)0.850.500.780.330.910.64
vs Weaker (3)1.670.002.500.000.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L21W00D10W00D11D11D00D00D02LA·KAU02/08H·PAN07/08A·BAN14/08H·FK 21/08A·JON27/08H·HEG06/09A·DŽI10/09H·BAN18/09A·FK 27/09A·PAN02/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.670.730.670.600.67
vs Stronger (8)0.000.750.001.670.000.20
vs Similar (22)0.910.640.920.420.900.90
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
FT wins
1
Draws
1
SM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Trakai vs Suduva Marijampole · H/A from FT
DateH/AGameScore
21/08/22ASuduva Marijampole Vs FT2-1
04/05/22ASuduva Marijampole Vs FT1-1
16/03/22HFT Vs Suduva Marijampole2-0

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/09/22AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs FT3-1
11/09/22HFT Vs Hegelmann Litauen0-0
07/09/22APanevėžys Vs FT0-1
03/09/22HFT Vs Jonava2-1
26/08/22ABanga Vs FT0-1
21/08/22ASuduva Marijampole Vs FT2-1
14/08/22HFT Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-5
07/08/22AKauno Žalgiris Vs FT2-0
30/07/22HFT Vs Šiauliai3-1
22/07/22HFT Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-1

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/10/22APanevėžys Vs SM2-0
27/09/22AFK Zalgiris Vilnius Vs SM1-0
18/09/22HSM Vs Banga2-0
10/09/22ADžiugas Telšiai Vs SM2-1
06/09/22HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-1
27/08/22AJonava Vs SM0-2
21/08/22HSM Vs FK Trakai2-1
14/08/22ABanga Vs SM0-0
07/08/22HSM Vs Panevėžys4-1
02/08/22AKauno Žalgiris Vs SM2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Trakai
FK Trakai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDL1.60
HomeWWLWD1.79
AwayLLWWL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %47%50%44%
AVG goals2.432.502.38
Over 1.5 %67%71%62%
Over 2.5 %43%50%38%
Over 3.5 %23%21%25%
Scored1.331.501.19
Conceded1.101.001.19
BTTS40%43%38%
Clean Sheet40%43%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLL1.55
HomeLWWWW2.00
AwayDWLLL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%60%25%
AVG goals2.352.602.12
Over 1.5 %74%87%62%
Over 2.5 %45%47%44%
Over 3.5 %19%13%25%
Scored1.351.601.12
Conceded1.001.001.00
BTTS42%53%31%
Clean Sheet35%27%44%
Corners11.0011.0011.00
Cards4.004.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3684
72%
2.3
8527+58
3.1
78%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.40.8
-
2Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3663
50%
1.8
5537+18
2.6
81%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.51.0
-
3PanevėžysPanevėžys3662
50%
1.7
5031+19
2.2
67%
47%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.40.9
-
4Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3661
44%
1.7
6232+30
2.6
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.70.9
-
5FK TrakaiFK Trakai3659
47%
1.6
5341+12
2.6
72%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3655
42%
1.5
4840+8
2.4
81%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.1
-
7ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3650
36%
1.4
3939+0
2.2
61%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.11.1
-
8BangaBanga3630
17%
0.8
3354-21
2.4
75%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.91.5
-
9Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3627
14%
0.8
3467-33
2.8
69%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.91.9
-
10JonavaJonava363
0%
0.1
12103-91
3.2
86%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.9
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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