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FK Trakai vs Suduva Marijampole Prediction & Stats

Date: 25/10/2026
Time: 16:30
FK Trakai
FK Trakai
Vs
23%
27%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

FK Trakai face a tough test as Suduva Marijampole, riding a five-game winning streak, are favoured to win, with the model picking an away victory. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.2% chance. Trakai’s home form shows they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.64 conceded against similarly matched teams, while Suduva’s away record boasts 1.5 goals scored and only 0.83 conceded. The home win probability sits at 24%, the draw at 28%, and the away win at 48%. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Under 5.5 (94.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.9%), Away +2 handicap (90.5%), and Under 4.5 (87.2%). With Suduva’s recent form and Trakai’s defensive frailties, the away side is poised to secure the win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Trakai win
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole win
49.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D20W10W22D14L11D00D21W10W04LH·SUD04/10H·HEG18/10A·PAN22/10H·BAN26/10A·DŽI02/11A·DAI08/11A·NEP15/11H·NEP22/11A·VIL28/04H·KAU19/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.772.030.932.000.602.07
vs Stronger (6)0.503.500.333.670.673.33
vs Similar (22)0.821.771.001.640.641.91
vs Weaker (2)1.000.502.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W22D12L22D00D51W30W20W20W21WH·KAU27/10H·ŠIA02/11A·HEG08/11A·MIN28/04H·TRA06/07H·HEG20/07A·BAN09/08A·DŽI17/08H·PAN23/08A·ŠIA30/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.031.571.211.440.88
vs Stronger (6)1.171.171.331.671.000.67
vs Similar (23)1.570.961.641.091.500.83
vs Weaker (1)2.002.00--2.002.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.2%
Under 1.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.1%
Under 2.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
0-1
10.3%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
9.2%
0-0
8.3%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
5.1%
FK Trakai goals ↓
Suduva Marijampole goals →
01234
08.3%10%9.2%4.9%2.0%
16.2%13%9.5%5.1%2.0%
23.8%6.2%4.9%2.6%1.1%
31.3%2.1%1.7%0.9%0.4%
40.3%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Trakai goals (down), columns = Suduva Marijampole goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Trakai or Draw
50.7%
Avg Implied -
23%
27%
49%
covers FK Trakai + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai or Suduva Marijampole
72.7%
Avg Implied -
23%
27%
49%
covers FK Trakai + Suduva Marijampole
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Suduva Marijampole
76.6%
Avg Implied -
23%
27%
49%
covers Draw + Suduva Marijampole
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5
Over
64.5%
Under
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5
Over
79.8%
Under
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5
Over
47.5%
Under
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5
Over
21.7%
Under
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 3.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to FK Trakai, so a minus line means FK Trakai give that many goals of a start and Suduva Marijampole receive them. At -1, FK Trakai must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Trakai win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Trakai)
FK Trakai -2
2.6%
Draw -2
6.5%
Suduva Marijampole +2
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Trakai)
FK Trakai -1
9.0%
Draw -1
14.4%
Suduva Marijampole +1
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Trakai)
FK Trakai +1
50.7%
Draw +1
22.8%
Suduva Marijampole -1
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Trakai)
FK Trakai +2
73.5%
Draw +2
15.4%
Suduva Marijampole -2
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D12L01L00D00D11D10W03LH·SUD04/10H·HEG18/10A·PAN22/10H·BAN26/10A·DŽI02/11A·DAI08/11A·NEP15/11H·NEP22/11A·VIL28/04H·KAU19/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.100.401.200.201.00
vs Stronger (6)0.172.000.002.330.331.67
vs Similar (22)0.320.910.450.910.180.91
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L00D01L00D30W20W00D00D10WH·KAU27/10H·ŠIA02/11A·HEG08/11A·MIN28/04H·TRA06/07H·HEG20/07A·BAN09/08A·DŽI17/08H·PAN23/08A·ŠIA30/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.430.360.640.440.25
vs Stronger (6)0.170.670.331.000.000.33
vs Similar (23)0.480.350.360.550.580.17
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W10W10W13L11D00D10W00D01LH·SUD04/10H·HEG18/10A·PAN22/10H·BAN26/10A·DŽI02/11A·DAI08/11A·NEP15/11H·NEP22/11A·VIL28/04H·KAU19/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.930.530.800.401.07
vs Stronger (6)0.331.500.331.330.331.67
vs Similar (22)0.500.860.550.730.451.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W21W12L21W00D21W10W20W20W11DH·KAU27/10H·ŠIA02/11A·HEG08/11A·MIN28/04H·TRA06/07H·HEG20/07A·BAN09/08A·DŽI17/08H·PAN23/08A·ŠIA30/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.601.210.571.000.62
vs Stronger (6)1.000.501.000.671.000.33
vs Similar (23)1.090.611.270.550.920.67
vs Weaker (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Trakai) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Trakai over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Trakai over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Under 6.598.2%-------
Home under 3.5 goals97.9%-------
Under 5.594.8%-------
Away under 3.5 goals92.1%-------
Home under 2.5 goals91.3%-------
Away +2 handicap91.0%-------
Under 4.587.2%-------
Away over 0.5 goals79.8%-------
Away under 2.5 goals78.3%-------
Draw or Away76.6%-------
Away +1 handicap76.6%-------
Over 1.575.2%-------
Home +2 handicap73.5%-------
Under 3.572.8%-------
Home or Away72.7%-------
Home under 1.5 goals72.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
FT wins
3
Draws
3
SM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Trakai vs Suduva Marijampole · H/A from FT
DateH/AGameScore
04/10/25HFT Vs Suduva Marijampole0-0
20/07/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs FT0-0
01/06/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs FT4-1
01/03/25HFT Vs Suduva Marijampole3-4
12/11/23ASuduva Marijampole Vs FT0-3
18/08/23HFT Vs Suduva Marijampole1-2
10/06/23ASuduva Marijampole Vs FT0-0
18/04/23HFT Vs Suduva Marijampole1-0

FK TrakaiFK Trakai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/05/26HFT Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-4
28/04/26AVilnius FA Vs FT0-1
22/11/25HFT Vs Neptūną Klaipėda2-1
15/11/25ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs FT0-0
08/11/25ADainava Vs FT1-1
02/11/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs FT4-1
26/10/25HFT Vs Banga2-2
22/10/25APanevėžys Vs FT0-1
18/10/25HFT Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-0
04/10/25HFT Vs Suduva Marijampole0-0

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26AŠiauliai Vs SM1-2
23/08/26HSM Vs Panevėžys2-0
17/08/26ADžiugas Telšiai Vs SM0-2
09/08/26ABanga Vs SM0-3
20/07/26HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen5-1
06/07/26HSM Vs TransINVEST Vilnius0-0
28/04/26AMinija Vs SM2-2
08/11/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM2-1
02/11/25HSM Vs Šiauliai2-2
27/10/25HSM Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Trakai
FK Trakai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWL1.14
HomeDWDWL1.24
AwayWLDDW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%28%
AVG goals2.963.162.76
Over 1.5 %78%84%72%
Over 2.5 %58%60%56%
Over 3.5 %34%36%32%
Scored1.261.481.04
Conceded1.701.681.72
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet28%28%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.82
HomeWDDWW1.91
AwayLDWWW1.74
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%52%48%
AVG goals2.522.352.67
Over 1.5 %70%61%78%
Over 2.5 %50%43%56%
Over 3.5 %28%30%26%
Scored1.581.521.63
Conceded0.940.831.04
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet44%48%41%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole616
83%
2.7
142+12
2.7
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2122.30.3
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius612
67%
2.0
138+5
3.5
100%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.21.3
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris511
60%
2.2
101+9
2.2
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4242.00.2
-
4PanevėžysPanevėžys811
38%
1.4
98+1
2.1
88%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.11.0
-
5TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius811
38%
1.4
910-1
2.4
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.2
-
6BangaBanga811
38%
1.4
1012-2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.21.5
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai78
29%
1.1
811-3
2.7
71%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.11.6
-
8Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen86
12%
0.8
1016-6
3.2
100%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.22.0
-
9ŠiauliaiŠiauliai83
12%
0.4
621-15
3.4
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2230.82.6
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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