FK Zalgiris Vilnius are favourites to win at home against Banga, with a recent-form storyline of coming off a defeat in their last outing, a 2-5 loss to HNK Hajduk Split. The model predicts a home win, with a 44% chance of FK Zalgiris Vilnius taking the three points, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 27% chance of Banga winning.
The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model's most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.9% chance of this outcome.
At home, FK Zalgiris Vilnius have scored an average of 1.3 goals and conceded 0.5 per match against weaker opponents. Banga, meanwhile, have scored 1.33 goals and conceded 1.47 per match away to stronger opponents.
The model's selections are Under 3.5, with a 76.3% chance, and Over 1.5, with a 72.1% chance. In terms of match probabilities, FK Zalgiris Vilnius have a 44% chance of winning, Banga a 27% chance, and the draw a 29% chance.
Results analysis
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's recent struggles continued as they suffered a 2-3 defeat at home to Banga, extending their losing run. The actual result was an away win, a surprising turn of events considering the pre-match favourite, FK Zalgiris Vilnius, had a 44% chance of success. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as Banga pulled off the upset. The model's selection, Home win, was not the favourite. The suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit, with a 72% probability, while the suggested pick, Under 3.5, missed, with a 76.3% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win✗ Miss
43.9%
Avg Implied 47.1% · @ 1.90
Edge
-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.98
Dafabet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
SBO
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.42
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.56
Betano
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Banga win✓ Hit
26.9%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.35
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.73
1xBet
3.51
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.44
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.27
1.50
0.93
1.75
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.56
1.81
1.62
1.38
1.50
2.25
vs Weaker (14)
1.71
0.64
1.33
0.33
2.00
0.88
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Banga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.07
0.92
1.17
1.39
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.40
0.00
1.40
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (19)
1.53
0.95
1.57
1.00
1.50
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.0%
@ 1.18-4.9%
Under 1.5
28.0%
@ 3.93+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.15
Under
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Unibet
3.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.9%
@ 1.64-10.9%
Under 2.5
55.1%
@ 2.07+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
SBO
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Betfair
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Under
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
2.22
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.7%
@ 2.58-11.7%
Under 3.5
76.3%
@ 1.41+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.95
Unibet
2.70
Betfair
2.70
Pinnacle
2.63
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.7%
@ 1.56-7.6%
No
49.3%
@ 2.19+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.57
No
Betfair
2.30
1xBet
2.29
William Hil
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Bet365
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 6.33+7.1%
1-0
10.7%@ 7.99+5.3%
0-0
9.7%@ 11.88+6.1%
2-1
8.9%@ 7.60+3.3%
2-0
8.4%@ 9.43+3.9%
0-1
7.7%@ 11.17+3.8%
1-2
6.7%@ 10.67+2.7%
2-2
4.7%@ 11.28+0.9%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals ↓
Banga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
7.7%
4.7%
1.7%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.7%
2.4%
0.6%
2
8.4%
8.9%
4.7%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.0%
4.2%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (down), columns = Banga goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.62 points better than Banga in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.92 goals better than Banga in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.17 goals better than Banga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Draw✗ Miss
73.1%
Avg Implied -
44%
29%
27%
covers FK Zalgiris Vilnius + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Banga✓ Hit
70.8%
Avg Implied -
44%
29%
27%
covers FK Zalgiris Vilnius + Banga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Banga✓ Hit
56.1%
Avg Implied -
44%
29%
27%
covers Draw + Banga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.71
0.43
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.62
1.00
0.75
0.62
0.50
1.38
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.21
0.67
0.17
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Banga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.42
0.58
0.67
0.33
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.50
0.00
0.40
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.42
0.71
0.71
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
0.79
0.50
1.06
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.81
0.88
0.75
1.00
0.88
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.43
0.67
0.17
1.12
0.62
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Banga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.50
0.58
0.72
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.90
0.00
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.53
0.86
0.29
0.75
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
76.3%
1.41
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
+11.7%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.0%
1.18
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.15
-4.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Kendysh25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde33%
Nassim Hnid25%
Joel Bopesu25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Buff33%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde67%
Paulius Golubickas25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's squad is €2m more valuable than Banga's (€7m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Banga have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's midfield is €1m more valuable than Banga's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Banga have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
TransINVEST Vilnius
Džiugas Telšiai
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai