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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai Result & Analysis

Date: 27/08/2023
Time: 14:55
Final 4-1
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Vs
74%
18%
8%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Zalgiris Vilnius win✓ Hit
74.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai win✗ Miss
8.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-540W22D12L01L00D13L40W05L20W04LH·SUD21/07H·GAL25/07H·PAN30/07A·GAL02/08A·ŠIA06/08H·BK 10/08H·HEG13/08A·BK 17/08A·DAI20/08H·FER24/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.700.971.861.071.560.88
vs Stronger (3)0.672.331.003.000.001.00
vs Similar (10)1.701.401.831.171.501.75
vs Weaker (17)1.880.472.170.331.730.55
Clean sheet %50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L12L21W12L10W22D11D00D10W03LA·PAN11/06H·FK 22/06H·DAI01/07H·HEG08/07A·BAN14/07H·FK 23/07H·SUD29/07A·KAU06/08A·ŠIA11/08H·PAN19/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.730.751.620.711.86
vs Stronger (14)0.572.290.501.880.672.83
vs Similar (16)0.881.251.001.380.751.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.2%
No
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.4%
1-0
10.6%
3-0
10.5%
2-1
9.0%
1-1
8.4%
3-1
7.1%
4-0
6.2%
0-0
5.6%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals ↓
Džiugas Telšiai goals →
01234
05.6%2.5%1.1%0.2%0.0%
111%8.4%2.6%0.6%0.1%
213%9.0%3.1%0.7%0.1%
311%7.1%2.4%0.5%0.1%
46.2%4.2%1.4%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (down), columns = Džiugas Telšiai goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Panevėžys
2.42
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.64
Šiauliai
1.64
Kauno Žalgiris
1.64
Banga
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
0.97
Dainava
0.86
Džiugas Telšiai
0.84
FK Trakai
0.69
Be1 NFA
0.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 1.24 points better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of average points per game (2.08 vs 0.84).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.86
Panevėžys
1.78
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.69
Šiauliai
1.33
Suduva Marijampole
0.78
Džiugas Telšiai
0.74
FK Trakai
0.72
Dainava
0.69
Banga
0.61
Be1 NFA
0.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 1.12 goals better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 0.74).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.39
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.78
Be1 NFA
1.00
Šiauliai
1.00
Dainava
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.19
Banga
1.44
Džiugas Telšiai
1.45
Suduva Marijampole
1.67
FK Trakai
1.72
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.67 goals better than Džiugas Telšiai in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.45).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D01L00D01L30W01L00D01LH·SUD21/07H·GAL25/07H·PAN30/07A·GAL02/08A·ŠIA06/08H·BK 10/08H·HEG13/08A·BK 17/08A·DAI20/08H·FER24/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.270.570.360.440.19
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.000.500.001.00
vs Similar (10)0.800.300.830.330.750.25
vs Weaker (17)0.410.180.500.330.360.09
Clean sheet %77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L10W00D00D12L11D00D10W01LA·PAN11/06H·FK 22/06H·DAI01/07H·HEG08/07A·BAN14/07H·FK 23/07H·SUD29/07A·KAU06/08A·ŠIA11/08H·PAN19/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.730.310.690.360.79
vs Stronger (14)0.290.790.120.500.501.17
vs Similar (16)0.380.690.500.880.250.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W22D01L00D00D12L10W04L20W03LH·SUD21/07H·GAL25/07H·PAN30/07A·GAL02/08A·ŠIA06/08H·BK 10/08H·HEG13/08A·BK 17/08A·DAI20/08H·FER24/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.701.290.711.120.69
vs Stronger (3)0.671.671.002.500.000.00
vs Similar (10)0.901.101.000.830.751.50
vs Weaker (17)1.470.291.670.001.360.45
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Džiugas Telšiai) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D11D12L10W10W00D00D00D02LA·PAN11/06H·FK 22/06H·DAI01/07H·HEG08/07A·BAN14/07H·FK 23/07H·SUD29/07A·KAU06/08A·ŠIA11/08H·PAN19/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.000.440.940.361.07
vs Stronger (14)0.291.500.381.380.171.67
vs Similar (16)0.500.560.500.500.500.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Džiugas Telšiai over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.3%-------✓ Hit
Home win74.2%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Kendysh25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde33%
Nassim Hnid25%
Joel Bopesu25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Buff33%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde67%
Paulius Golubickas25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's squad is €3m more valuable than Džiugas Telšiai's (€7m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar midfield value (both €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Džiugas Telšiai have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
5
FZV wins
1
Draws
1
DT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai · H/A from FZV
DateH/AGameScore
22/06/23ADžiugas Telšiai Vs FZV1-2
23/04/23ADžiugas Telšiai Vs FZV0-2
05/03/23HFZV Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-3
30/10/22HFZV Vs Džiugas Telšiai6-0
03/09/22ADžiugas Telšiai Vs FZV1-1
22/06/22HFZV Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-1
13/04/22ADžiugas Telšiai Vs FZV3-5

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/08/23HFZV Vs Ferencvarosi TC0-4
20/08/23ADainava Vs FZV0-2
17/08/23ABK Hacken Vs FZV5-0
13/08/23HFZV Vs Hegelmann Litauen4-0
10/08/23HFZV Vs BK Hacken1-3
06/08/23AŠiauliai Vs FZV0-0
02/08/23AGalatasaray Vs FZV1-0
30/07/23HFZV Vs Panevėžys1-2
25/07/23HFZV Vs Galatasaray2-2
21/07/23HFZV Vs Suduva Marijampole4-0

Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/08/23HDT Vs Panevėžys0-3
11/08/23AŠiauliai Vs DT0-1
06/08/23AKauno Žalgiris Vs DT0-0
29/07/23HDT Vs Suduva Marijampole1-1
23/07/23HDT Vs FK Trakai2-2
14/07/23ABanga Vs DT0-1
08/07/23HDT Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-2
01/07/23HDT Vs Dainava2-1
22/06/23HDT Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-2
11/06/23APanevėžys Vs DT4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWL1.90
HomeDLLWL1.88
AwayWLDLW1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%58%58%
AVG goals2.783.042.50
Over 1.5 %74%73%75%
Over 2.5 %58%73%42%
Over 3.5 %34%46%21%
Scored1.782.001.54
Conceded1.001.040.96
BTTS40%46%33%
Clean Sheet46%46%46%
Corners8.918.0010.00
Cards3.643.833.40
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDWL0.84
HomeWLDDL0.92
AwayLLWDW0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%19%17%
AVG goals2.662.353.00
Over 1.5 %78%77%79%
Over 2.5 %48%46%50%
Over 3.5 %28%15%42%
Scored0.880.880.88
Conceded1.781.462.12
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet18%19%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PanevėžysPanevėžys3687
72%
2.4
6414+50
2.2
67%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.80.4
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3675
64%
2.1
6728+39
2.6
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2331.90.8
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3659
42%
1.6
6140+21
2.8
78%
44%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.71.1
-
4Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3659
50%
1.6
6243+19
2.9
72%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.2
-
5ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3659
42%
1.6
4836+12
2.3
69%
36%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.31.0
-
6BangaBanga3636
28%
1.0
2252-30
2.1
58%
31%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.61.4
-
7Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3635
28%
1.0
2860-32
2.4
72%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.81.7
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3832
16%
0.8
2855-27
2.2
68%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.71.4
-
9DainavaDainava3631
19%
0.9
2540-15
1.8
56%
33%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.1
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai3625
14%
0.7
2662-36
2.4
64%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA21
0%
0.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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