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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen Result & Analysis

Date: 14/09/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 1-1
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Vs
51%
25%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Zalgiris Vilnius win✗ Miss
50.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen win✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L21W10W21W01L00D20W21W11D21WA·KAU05/07A·VPS11/07H·VPS18/07H·PAF25/07A·PAF01/08A·PAN11/08H·TRA14/08H·DŽI18/08A·SUD25/08H·BAN01/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.770.802.200.731.330.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.250.941.710.860.891.00
vs Weaker (14)2.360.642.620.622.000.67
Clean sheet %40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W10W42W20W10W40W10W30W11D13LH·FK 30/06A·PAN04/07A·BAN12/07A·DŽI19/07A·DAI03/08A·ATM06/08A·SUD10/08H·BAN16/08H·KAU24/08A·ŠIA01/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.770.931.671.081.830.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.631.161.621.121.641.18
vs Weaker (11)2.000.551.751.002.140.29
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.5%
Under 2.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.0%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.3%
1-0
8.2%
1-2
6.4%
0-0
6.3%
3-1
5.8%
2-2
5.7%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals ↓
Hegelmann Litauen goals →
01234
06.3%5.0%3.6%1.4%0.4%
18.2%12%6.4%2.5%0.7%
28.3%9.7%5.7%2.2%0.6%
34.9%5.8%3.4%1.3%0.4%
42.2%2.6%1.5%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (down), columns = Hegelmann Litauen goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.19
Hegelmann Litauen
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris
1.50
Dainava
1.25
Banga
1.19
Šiauliai
1.17
Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Panevėžys
1.14
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.06
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.33 points better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 1.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.11
Hegelmann Litauen
1.67
Kauno Žalgiris
1.19
Šiauliai
1.08
Banga
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.97
Dainava
0.94
Panevėžys
0.94
Džiugas Telšiai
0.92
Suduva Marijampole
0.89
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.44 goals better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 1.67).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.86
Be1 NFA
1.00
Suduva Marijampole
1.08
Dainava
1.08
Hegelmann Litauen
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris
1.11
Panevėžys
1.11
Banga
1.28
Džiugas Telšiai
1.33
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.39
Šiauliai
1.39
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.25 goals better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W20W01L00D10W11D01L00DA·KAU05/07A·VPS11/07H·VPS18/07H·PAF25/07A·PAF01/08A·PAN11/08H·TRA14/08H·DŽI18/08A·SUD25/08H·BAN01/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.200.930.130.530.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.620.121.000.000.330.22
vs Weaker (14)0.860.290.880.250.830.33
Clean sheet %80% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D10W00D00D20W10W10W11D03LH·FK 30/06A·PAN04/07A·BAN12/07A·DŽI19/07A·DAI03/08A·ATM06/08A·SUD10/08H·BAN16/08H·KAU24/08A·ŠIA01/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.500.580.580.440.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.420.740.620.750.270.73
vs Weaker (11)0.640.090.500.250.710.00
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D00D01L00D00D10W10W10W21WA·KAU05/07A·VPS11/07H·VPS18/07H·PAF25/07A·PAF01/08A·PAN11/08H·TRA14/08H·DŽI18/08A·SUD25/08H·BAN01/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.601.270.600.800.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.620.810.710.860.560.78
vs Weaker (14)1.500.361.750.381.170.33
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W32W20W10W20W00D20W00D10WH·FK 30/06A·PAN04/07A·BAN12/07A·DŽI19/07A·DAI03/08A·ATM06/08A·SUD10/08H·BAN16/08H·KAU24/08A·ŠIA01/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.431.080.501.390.39
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.210.421.000.381.360.45
vs Weaker (11)1.360.451.250.751.430.29
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.4%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Kendysh25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde33%
Nassim Hnid25%
Joel Bopesu25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Buff33%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde67%
Paulius Golubickas25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
DAI (1)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's squad is €2m more valuable than Hegelmann Litauen's (€7m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
DAI (0)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
DAI (1)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's midfield is €1m more valuable than Hegelmann Litauen's (€3m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
DAI (0)
€0m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
FZV wins
1
Draws
3
HL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen · H/A from FZV
DateH/AGameScore
30/06/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs FZV3-1
12/05/24AHegelmann Litauen Vs FZV0-0
17/03/24HFZV Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-3
04/11/23AHegelmann Litauen Vs FZV2-0
13/08/23HFZV Vs Hegelmann Litauen4-0
07/06/23AHegelmann Litauen Vs FZV0-1
16/04/23HFZV Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-0
23/10/22HFZV Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-1

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/24HFZV Vs Banga2-1
25/08/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs FZV1-1
18/08/24HFZV Vs Džiugas Telšiai2-1
14/08/24HFZV Vs TransINVEST Vilnius2-0
11/08/24APanevėžys Vs FZV0-0
01/08/24APafos Vs FZV1-0
25/07/24HFZV Vs Pafos2-1
18/07/24HFZV Vs VPS1-0
11/07/24AVPS Vs FZV1-2
05/07/24AKauno Žalgiris Vs FZV1-0

Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/24AŠiauliai Vs HL3-1
24/08/24HHL Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-1
16/08/24HHL Vs Banga3-0
10/08/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs HL0-1
06/08/24AAtmosfera Vs HL0-4
03/08/24ADainava Vs HL0-1
19/07/24ADžiugas Telšiai Vs HL0-2
12/07/24ABanga Vs HL2-4
04/07/24APanevėžys Vs HL0-1
30/06/24HHL Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDW1.90
HomeWWWWW2.25
AwayLWLDD1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%71%46%
AVG goals2.783.122.46
Over 1.5 %76%83%69%
Over 2.5 %56%71%42%
Over 3.5 %34%46%23%
Scored1.682.041.35
Conceded1.101.081.12
BTTS44%50%38%
Clean Sheet38%42%35%
Corners8.805.0011.33
Cards3.603.004.00
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDL1.98
HomeWDWWD1.73
AwayWWWWL2.18
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%45%68%
AVG goals2.762.592.89
Over 1.5 %72%68%75%
Over 2.5 %52%45%57%
Over 3.5 %38%36%39%
Scored1.621.501.71
Conceded1.141.091.18
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet42%36%46%
Corners8.506.0011.00
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3679
67%
2.2
7631+45
3.0
78%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.10.9
-
2Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3667
53%
1.9
6040+20
2.8
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.71.1
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3654
42%
1.5
4340+3
2.3
61%
44%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.21.1
-
4DainavaDainava3645
33%
1.2
3439-5
2.0
53%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
5BangaBanga3643
28%
1.2
3746-9
2.3
69%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.01.3
-
6Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3842
26%
1.1
3441-7
2.0
47%
34%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.91.1
-
7ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3642
28%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
67%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.11.4
-
8Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3642
31%
1.2
3348-15
2.2
61%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.91.3
-
9PanevėžysPanevėžys3641
25%
1.1
3440-6
2.1
56%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2220.91.1
-
10TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3638
31%
1.1
3550-15
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.4
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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