FK Zalgiris Vilnius are the clear favorites, with a 58% chance of victory, a 24% chance of a draw and a 18% chance of Hegelmann Litauen winning. The model predicts a 2.9-goal average, most likely a 2-goal total at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.4% probability. Zalgiris, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, have been scoring 1.86 goals per game and conceding 1.43. Hegelmann, on the road, average 0.75 goals scored and 1.67 conceded against comparable teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Under 6.5 (97.1%), Home +2 handicap (93.4%), Under 5.5 (92.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.3%) and Home over 0.5 goals (85.2%). Zalgiris come off a defeat, while Hegelmann return from a draw. The match should see a modest scoring display with the home side edging the contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win
55.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen win
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.33
1.71
1.07
1.50
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.87
1.86
1.43
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.80
0.80
1.57
0.71
2.00
0.88
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.83
1.17
1.11
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.55
2.12
1.38
0.75
1.67
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
0.70
1.25
0.75
1.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.7%
Under 2.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.3%
1-0
8.8%
0-0
6.2%
3-1
6.2%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.6%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals ↓
Hegelmann Litauen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
4.5%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
1
8.8%
12%
5.6%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.8%
6.2%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.7%
2.9%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (down), columns = Hegelmann Litauen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 1.25 points better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.92 goals better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.67 goals better than Hegelmann Litauen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Draw
79.8%
Avg Implied -
55%
24%
20%
covers FK Zalgiris Vilnius + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Hegelmann Litauen
75.6%
Avg Implied -
55%
24%
20%
covers FK Zalgiris Vilnius + Hegelmann Litauen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hegelmann Litauen
44.6%
Avg Implied -
55%
24%
20%
covers Draw + Hegelmann Litauen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5
Over
84.8%
Under
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 3.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5
Over
29.0%
Under
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FK Zalgiris Vilnius, so a minus line means FK Zalgiris Vilnius give that many goals of a start and Hegelmann Litauen receive them. At -1, FK Zalgiris Vilnius must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Zalgiris Vilnius win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Zalgiris Vilnius)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius -2
15.5%
Draw -2
17.3%
Hegelmann Litauen +2
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Zalgiris Vilnius)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius -1
32.8%
Draw -1
22.6%
Hegelmann Litauen +1
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Zalgiris Vilnius)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius +1
79.8%
Draw +1
12.4%
Hegelmann Litauen -1
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Zalgiris Vilnius)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius +2
92.2%
Draw +2
5.6%
Hegelmann Litauen -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.71
0.43
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
1.00
0.86
0.57
0.25
1.38
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.27
0.57
0.29
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.92
0.33
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.55
1.12
0.38
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.17
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
1.00
0.64
0.94
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.87
1.00
0.86
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.53
1.00
0.43
1.12
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann Litauen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann Litauen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.92
0.83
0.56
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.42
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann Litauen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FK Zalgiris Vilnius · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yuri Kendysh25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde33%
Nassim Hnid25%
Joel Bopesu25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Buff33%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Paulius Golubickas0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde67%
Paulius Golubickas25%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Stipe Vučur0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Nassim Hnid0%
Yuri Kendysh0%
Ovidijus Verbickas0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Yukiyoshi Karashima0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's squad is €2m more valuable than Hegelmann Litauen's (€7m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's midfield is €1m more valuable than Hegelmann Litauen's (€3m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
TransINVEST Vilnius
Banga
Džiugas Telšiai
Šiauliai
FK Trakai