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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris Result & Analysis

Date: 23/11/2022
Time: 17:00
Final 2-3
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Vs
50%
28%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Zalgiris Vilnius win✗ Miss
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris win✓ Hit
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W21W22D60W12L21W01L03L20W50WA·PAN19/10H·HEG23/10A·FC 27/10H·DŽI30/10H·SLO03/11A·SUD06/11H·PAN09/11A·ŠIA13/11A·BAN17/11H·ŠIA20/11
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.830.972.000.801.671.13
vs Stronger (4)1.002.252.001.500.003.00
vs Similar (14)1.210.790.860.861.570.71
vs Weaker (12)2.830.753.330.502.331.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W02L21W11D20W10W30W00D02L30WH·DŽI07/09H·FK 11/09H·JON16/09H·HEG09/10A·SUD19/10H·ŠIA23/10H·BAN29/10H·PAN05/11A·FK 08/11A·DŽI13/11
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.001.501.001.431.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.181.000.831.171.600.80
vs Weaker (19)1.631.001.900.901.331.11
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.7%
Under 1.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.7%
Under 2.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.5%
Under 3.5
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.9%
No
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
11.7%
2-0
9.9%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.0%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris goals →
01234
09.7%6.8%3.8%1.2%0.3%
112%13%5.7%1.8%0.4%
29.9%9.3%4.4%1.4%0.3%
35.0%4.7%2.2%0.7%0.2%
41.9%1.8%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.75
Panevėžys
1.72
Hegelmann Litauen
1.69
FK Trakai
1.64
Suduva Marijampole
1.53
Šiauliai
1.39
Banga
0.83
Džiugas Telšiai
0.75
Jonava
0.08
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.58 points better than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of average points per game (2.33 vs 1.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.36
Hegelmann Litauen
1.72
Kauno Žalgiris
1.53
FK Trakai
1.47
Panevėžys
1.39
Suduva Marijampole
1.33
Šiauliai
1.08
Džiugas Telšiai
0.94
Banga
0.92
Jonava
0.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.83 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals scored per game (2.36 vs 1.53).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.75
Panevėžys
0.86
Hegelmann Litauen
0.89
Kauno Žalgiris
1.03
Šiauliai
1.08
Suduva Marijampole
1.11
FK Trakai
1.14
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.86
Jonava
2.86
FK Zalgiris Vilnius is 0.28 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D12L20W02L11D01L01L20W30WA·PAN19/10H·HEG23/10A·FC 27/10H·DŽI30/10H·SLO03/11A·SUD06/11H·PAN09/11A·ŠIA13/11A·BAN17/11H·ŠIA20/11
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.501.000.331.000.67
vs Stronger (4)0.751.001.500.500.001.50
vs Similar (14)0.640.570.430.570.860.57
vs Weaker (12)1.500.251.500.001.500.50
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D11D11D20W10W10W00D00D10WH·DŽI07/09H·FK 11/09H·JON16/09H·HEG09/10A·SUD19/10H·ŠIA23/10H·BAN29/10H·PAN05/11A·FK 08/11A·DŽI13/11
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.570.500.690.640.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.450.640.330.670.600.60
vs Weaker (19)0.630.530.600.700.670.33
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W10W40W10W10W00D02L00D20WA·PAN19/10H·HEG23/10A·FC 27/10H·DŽI30/10H·SLO03/11A·SUD06/11H·PAN09/11A·ŠIA13/11A·BAN17/11H·ŠIA20/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.471.000.470.670.47
vs Stronger (4)0.251.250.501.000.001.50
vs Similar (14)0.570.210.430.290.710.14
vs Weaker (12)1.330.501.830.500.830.50
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W02L10W00D00D00D20W00D02L20WH·DŽI07/09H·FK 11/09H·JON16/09H·HEG09/10A·SUD19/10H·ŠIA23/10H·BAN29/10H·PAN05/11A·FK 08/11A·DŽI13/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.431.000.310.790.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.730.360.500.501.000.20
vs Weaker (19)1.000.471.300.200.670.78
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Zalgiris Vilnius) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners74.1%--------
Over 1.571.7%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fabien Ourega17%
Francis Kyeremeh17%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde17%
Renan17%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Nemanja Ljubisavljević0%
Oliver Buff0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Donatas Kazlauskas0%
Marko Milickovic0%
Joel Bopesu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nemanja Ljubisavljević60%
Nicolas Gorobsov33%
Francis Kyeremeh33%
Petar Mamić17%
Oliver Buff17%
Fabien Ourega17%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Donatas Kazlauskas0%
Marko Milickovic0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Renan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Francis Kyeremeh17%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde17%
Renan17%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Nemanja Ljubisavljević0%
Oliver Buff0%
Fabien Ourega0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Donatas Kazlauskas0%
Marko Milickovic0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Francis Kyeremeh33%
Oliver Buff17%
Fabien Ourega17%
Renan17%
Edvinas Gertmonas0%
Petar Mamić0%
Mario Pavelić0%
Nemanja Ljubisavljević0%
Nicolas Gorobsov0%
Donatas Kazlauskas0%
Marko Milickovic0%
Joel Bopesu0%
Mathias Oyewusi Kehinde0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
DT (22)
€5m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's squad is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€7m vs €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's attack is €2m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€2m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Kauno Žalgiris have a similar midfield value (both €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's defence is €1m less valuable than Kauno Žalgiris's (€3m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
FZV wins
1
Draws
1
KŽ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Kauno Žalgiris · H/A from FZV
DateH/AGameScore
11/09/22AKauno Žalgiris Vs FZV0-2
22/05/22HFZV Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-2
02/04/22AKauno Žalgiris Vs FZV2-2

FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/11/22HFZV Vs Šiauliai5-0
17/11/22ABanga Vs FZV0-2
13/11/22AŠiauliai Vs FZV3-0
09/11/22HFZV Vs Panevėžys0-1
06/11/22ASuduva Marijampole Vs FZV1-2
03/11/22HFZV Vs Slovan Bratislava1-2
30/10/22HFZV Vs Džiugas Telšiai6-0
27/10/22AFC Basel 1893 Vs FZV2-2
23/10/22HFZV Vs Hegelmann Litauen2-1
19/10/22APanevėžys Vs FZV0-1

Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/11/22ADžiugas Telšiai Vs KŽ0-3
08/11/22AFK Trakai Vs KŽ2-0
05/11/22HKŽ Vs Panevėžys0-0
29/10/22HKŽ Vs Banga3-0
23/10/22HKŽ Vs Šiauliai1-0
19/10/22ASuduva Marijampole Vs KŽ0-2
09/10/22HKŽ Vs Hegelmann Litauen1-1
16/09/22HKŽ Vs Jonava2-1
11/09/22HKŽ Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-2
07/09/22HKŽ Vs Džiugas Telšiai5-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWW2.06
HomeWWLLW2.08
AwayWDWLW2.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %61%62%60%
AVG goals2.822.583.04
Over 1.5 %73%67%80%
Over 2.5 %53%58%48%
Over 3.5 %33%25%40%
Scored1.961.882.04
Conceded0.860.711.00
BTTS43%50%36%
Clean Sheet45%42%48%
Corners8.459.677.00
Cards4.554.834.20
Kauno Žalgiris
Kauno Žalgiris
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLW1.65
HomeWDWWD1.63
AwayWWWLW1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%42%50%
AVG goals2.412.472.33
Over 1.5 %78%74%83%
Over 2.5 %49%53%44%
Over 3.5 %16%26%6%
Scored1.411.471.33
Conceded1.001.001.00
BTTS49%47%50%
Clean Sheet35%37%33%
Corners7.509.006.00
Cards3.003.00-

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius3684
72%
2.3
8527+58
3.1
78%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.40.8
-
2Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris3663
50%
1.8
5537+18
2.6
81%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.51.0
-
3PanevėžysPanevėžys3662
50%
1.7
5031+19
2.2
67%
47%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.40.9
-
4Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen3661
44%
1.7
6232+30
2.6
75%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.70.9
-
5FK TrakaiFK Trakai3659
47%
1.6
5341+12
2.6
72%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole3655
42%
1.5
4840+8
2.4
81%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.1
-
7ŠiauliaiŠiauliai3650
36%
1.4
3939+0
2.2
61%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2231.11.1
-
8BangaBanga3630
17%
0.8
3354-21
2.4
75%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2120.91.5
-
9Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai3627
14%
0.8
3467-33
2.8
69%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1220.91.9
-
10JonavaJonava363
0%
0.1
12103-91
3.2
86%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.9
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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